My Last Time in Vegas, Part 1

I dubbed this trip "the harmonic convergence" because several key things had to happen for me to go: 1) my room had to be free, 2) some of my meals would have to be cheap/free, 3) my airfare had to be cheap, 4) I couldn't burn too many vacation days and (most importantly) 5) my wife and mother of my six-month old baby girl had to let me go solo!

Items 1, 2 and 4 were taken care of by an invite to a VP tourney at Bally's, which included $50 in food vouchers and occurred after Labor Day, meaning I could go out on Monday and not miss a day of work (incidentally, I chose Paris for my hotel). Item 3 was taken care of by cheaptickets.com, which got me a flight out (from Philly) on Frontier and back on Continental for a mere $250. Item 5 was finally taken care of by my lovely wife, who saw how excited I was by all this and gave her blessing.

Labor Day (aka. "the big day") finally arrived. I got up dark-n-early, at 4:30 am. I had to be at a nearby hotel at 5:15 am to catch the shuttle for my flight out at 7:20 am. I got to the airport in plenty of time, only to get yelled at by security for not pulling my zip-loc bag o' toiletries out prior to the x-ray machine. Ooops! I then got flagged for a 'reach in foul', as I tried to retrieve my sneaker from the conveyer belt a little too early for their tastes. Sheesh, did they ever consider that not everyone who takes the first flight out is a true 'morning person'? I made it to my gate and have zero idea how I passed the time. Boarding the plane was a snap; it was only 2/3 full. Someone got on the horn and encouraged us to move if we could find a better seat, so I found one in an exit row (I'm 6'2"). Frontier is a nice airline; you can watch Direct TV for a mere $5. Or you could sleep for free, like I did. We landed in Denver on time and the mission became 'kill TWO hours'. I did laps around the inside of the terminal for a while, but soon grew weary of that. I settled in at the gate with a copy of the latest Colorado Rockies program (Frontier is the official team airline). Being somewhat of a baseball nut, I milked that program for all it was worth. You may laugh, but if we're ever in a keeper fantasy league together and I end up with 'future Rockies star' Seth Smith, well, I'LL be the one laughing! It was finally time to board and my seat was on the right side of the plane. This was key b/c I had a great view of the Strip upon landing. Let me tell you, Project: City Center still looks HUGE from the plane; that place is gonna be SWEET!

We parked at Terminal D, which meant a quick trip through their.... subway?... to get to the main terminal. Harrah's aiprort check-in was right at the bottom of the escalator, so I went in and scored a P room on the 11th floor! No coupon sheet, but I rectified that at the Paris front desk later that evening. Psyched, I made my way to the taxi area, told the guy "Paris, but don't take the tunnel" and soon I was on my way! I had a great driver; I told him I was in town for a VP tourney and he told me how he recently won $6K in a slot tourney at Fremont. We chatted about 'locals casinos' and impressed him with my plan to visit the Orleans and the Gold Coast. On the way to Paris, we passed by that defunct nightclub, Ice, and we joked about the 'reality show' on Spike TV that chronicled its rise and the beginning of its downfall.

Finding the elevators at Paris was a tad annoying for a first-timer like myself, but soon I was on the 11th floor and grinning ear to ear as I walked waaaaaaaaay down the hallway towards my P room. It was definitely worth the walk! One window overlooked the pool and the Eiffel Tower and the Bellagio fountains were to the right. The other window faced Bally's, but the fountains were to the left. I quickly unpacked and began my trek to Ellis Island for some steak (on the previous trip with my wife, we drove over there 'round 11 pm or so but the wait was too long). I thought I'd be 'slick' and walk down the road that my taxi had driven up, then across those lots and be at EI pretty quickly, but all those fences forced me to do the trek the way I should've (out Bally's sportsbook, down Flamingo, right at Koval), only OUTSIDE! No matter, EI has air-conditioning and soon I was sitting at the right bar (after first going up to the wrong bar where you can't get food), where I learned that yes, I could ORDER food there but the 'tender couldn't SERVE it to me, so I'd have to pick it up behind the hostess stand. Considering how far I had already travelled that day just to enjoy the steak special, a short walk over to the stand seemed like a small price to pay! I orderred a light micro-beer and played a bit of 8/5 JOB while I waited. I was up $3.75 when my salad was ready so I picked it up and relocated to the left side of the bar where there were no machines to gum up with dressing. Soon after that, my steak was ready and it did NOT disappoint! I still don't know how I finished it, but I did and I gave the 'tender a 10 to cover the bill (he also cashed my TITO). Since I wasn't given a placemat with a match-play on it, I decided to just leave and begin my monorail journey.

I got on at Bally's and my first stop was the LV Hilton; I wanted to see what I could score with my "Destination Club" card that I got at Resorts in AC. Sadly, the answer was 'nothing', but hey, it didn't hurt to ask! I found the 9/6 JOB quarter machines by the sportsbook and after confirming that, yes Virginia, the area DID have a cocktail waitress, I started playing (note: I also found NICKEL 9/6 JOB in/near the SpaceQuest casino). Soon I had a Miller Lite in hand and I was up $10, so I cashed out and hit the sportsbook. I learned earlier that Bally's was giving 40-1 odds on the Dolphins making the Super Bowl, but was curious if the Hilton could beat it. I'm not a Dolphins fan by any means, but once I saw I could get 50-1 at the Hilton, I had no problems putting my $10 in profit on them. My reasoning? Their head coach is the guy who made stars out of Ladanian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Phillip Rivers, so I figured he could maybe do the same with Ronnie Brown, Trent Green and... whatever their TE is called. Plus they should have a decent D. (Editor's note: they lost today).

Blackjack's Unwritten Rules

I started playing blackjack in 2004 (an Atlantic City trip report I may write someday) based mainly on the writings of ESPN’s Bill Simmons, aka ‘The Sports Guy’, back when he was funny. Prior to the trip, I taught myself basic strategy by purchasing some software for my PC and playing it until most of the strategy became second nature. Neither this game nor Bill Simmons, however, could teach me the ‘unwritten rules of blackjack’. Okay, in retrospect, I probably could’ve Googled it, had I known they existed. Heck, I could Google it right now, but then a) I wouldn’t have an article to write or b) my article would clearly be biased by what I’ve read. So, when you’re done reading, feel free to add your own in the comments, but if you think I missed something obvious, now you know why.

General Play

1. When joining a game mid-shoe, it never hurts to ask the players already in the game if you can join.
2. If you are dealt a double-down opportunity, it is perfectly acceptable to double your bet by moving your chips into position before it is your turn. There is a slim chance that the dealer has a 10 up card and turns over an Ace, but any good dealer will return your second bet to you while taking your first. Naturally you wouldn’t do this if the dealer was showing an Ace.
3. I don’t think there’s any situation where you’d split 5s, but a dealer must ask you if you want to double or split them. Since casinos are noisy (that is why there are hand signals, of course!), you can hold your index finger up, like a 1, meaning ‘1 card’, which is all you get when you double.
4. When the first round of cards are dealt, it is nice to wish any players that their Aces become blackjacks/naturals by lightly banging/tapping the table in their direction and saying “Good luck on your Ace”.
5. It’s obvious that you can touch your chips after you get paid for a win and normally the dealer takes your chips as soon as you lose. But what about a push? As I learned the hard way, DO NOT touch your chips until the dealer gets to your position and bangs/taps the felt in front of you to signal ‘push’ to the ‘eye in the sky’.

Tipping

1. There are two main ways to tip your dealer: 1) slide a chip into the ‘dealer zone’, that nebulous area best described as “around the insurance line”; a comment like “that’s for you” should convey the message and 2) make a bet for the dealer by placing your chip(s) near your betting stack, akin to the Moon orbiting the Earth.
2. In the event of a push, I usually but not always remember to ask the dealer what he/she prefers. Most often, they’ll ‘let it ride’. I don’t think I’ve had anyone take the tip on a push.
3. True story: my first or second time playing, a player to my left, during the betting portion, reached over and put singles/whites ‘in orbit’ around all our bets. I had no idea what she was doing. It was only when we all won and I went to take the money that I learned she was tipping the dealer on all our hands. I have never seen this since.
4. When coloring up at the end of a session, if I don’t think I’ve tipped enough, I try to remember to keep a red (or two) to the side so it’s not included in the coloring. That way I’m not digging in my wallet for some small bills after being handed a stack of greens and blacks.

That’s all I can think of at the moment. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!

What's My Motivation?

Unlike baseball, where a level head produces better results, football requires maximum aggression/motivation. For years, I've done pretty well picking games against the spread simply by asking myself "Which team is more motivated?" This often works regardless of the teams' records. An elite team looking past a cellar-dweller often fails to cover.

In fantasy, though, it's not quite so simple. Regular football is a team game, but I'm trying to figure out which individual players will perform at their peaks. Here, motivations vary. I've already said that players who get paid in the off-season take the following year off; we're already seeing this with CJ2K. Sometimes, bringing in competition lights a fire under a RB's butt, like with Ryan Matthews. Sometimes, though, it's the reverse - Beanie Wells didn't start performing until his competition went on the IR.

The best I can do is play armchair psychologist and try and figure out what teams and players are thinking.

Now, it'd be easy to say that a team like the Chiefs isn't motivated, so I won't even waste any more time on them. Instead, I'd like to talk about some players whom you may not expect. This is going to sound eerily similar to my earlier "Trench Warfare" column, as I firmly believe that O-line play determines overall team morale. Hey, if you got hit more often than your peers, wouldn't you be less motivated too?

Roethlisberger, Mendenhall and Wallace - PIT got embarassed by the Ravens in Week 1 and nearly lost to IND on Sunday. Their O-line is a mess and their secondary is having trouble covering. Mendenhall's numbers are down and Big Ben is running for his life. For now, I'll trust Mike Tomlin to motivate his players, but I would also start trying to move Mike Wallace if the price is right.

Romo, Jones, Dez and Miles - that O-line looked dreadful on MNF and Romo can't throw the ball that far. Will Dez and Miles become frustrated at the lack of looks and can Felix Jones find enough holes AND deal with a bum shoulder? The only 'winner' on the team is Jason Witten who would benefit from Romo's reduced range. Hmmm... maybe Wallace for Witten straight up?

Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler - as with PIT, the O-lines of CHI and ATL are a mess and the QBs have been getting killed. How long before it affects their level of play? I'll reserve judgment on Mike Smith, but I've already seen enough of Lovie Smith to know he's not motivating this team to rise above this issue.

Mark Sanchez and Dustin Keller - another team with O-line woes, but Rex Ryan is a master motivator. Notice I didn't list Shonn Greene; I think he needs something even Rex can't provide.

Jason Campbell, Run DMC, Jacoby Ford and Darius Moore - ah ha! Trick question! This team IS properly motivated. Even Heyward-Bey is overachieving (for him, anyway).

Eli Manning - I'd say that it pains me to say this, but it doesn't. It's been downhill since Super Bowl 42 and now he looks like a jilted lover who's missing both Kevin Boss and Steve Smith. The Giants, overall, may be 2-1, but how long before his attitude wears thin on the defense? Also, how long before the team as a whole stops listening to Tom Coughlin?

Everything I Know Is Wrong

They say there's nothing more boring than hearing someone talk about their fantasy teams, but I'm hoping this is generic enough to help you with yours and maybe spur some discussion in the comments.

• Where is Ryan Matthews 'On' switch and why didn't he flip it in the pre-season? It would figure the one week I take a chance on Mike Tolbert, Matthews put the final nail in Kool-Aid's coffin.
• I have three teams and we're now in Week 3. I think I've now played AGAINST most combinations of Brady/Welker/NE-tight-end-du-jour, but I'm sure there's one coming in Week 4. So, of course when I try to jump on the gravy train and start Deion Branch in 2 leagues, he posts a big fat zero. What can I learn from this? Post your thoughts in the comments.
• Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and the QB for the Eagles could all conceivably be grievously harmed due to their inept O-lines.
• Furthermore, the only RB who seems to be able to overcome this, on the ground, is Lesean McCoy. At least Matt Forte and Ladanian Tomlinson can contribute through the air. Somewhere in between is Michael Turner.
• Shonn Greene and Adrian Peterson are doing it with smoke and mirrors. I'm not sorry, yet, I traded away AP for Arian Foster and I may try to sell moderately-high on Greene.
• I'll come right out and say it: PPR is really getting on my nerves. It can really help or really hurt. It doesn't seem like there's an in-between.
• Desean Jackson may be the most overrated WR out there.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus: Conclusion

My curiosity satisfied, I made my way out to Pacific Ave. to jitney (yes, I just turned ‘jitney’ into a verb) over to the Borgata. The one bad thing about this plan is that by the time most jitneys make it that far, they’re often full so you have to wait a bit longer. Still, the wait was worth it, both due to the destination and the nice new jitneys all the drivers had to buy. Speaking of the drivers, I don’t know why they get such a bad rep. When I was on line waiting to get back to Pacific from the Borgata, a lot of folks weren’t too happy about the waits and the apparent randomness of their routes. The way I see it, these drivers have to buy their own vehicles, maintain them and fill them with gas which is still over $3.50 a gallon. Then they have to drive them around AC for who knows how many hours with who knows how few breaks, dealing with all sorts of people. All for $2.25 a ride.

The first order of business upon reaching the Borgata was lunch. I scoped out the Buffet and the Cafeteria and ultimately went back to the Buffet so I could make like “Man vs. Food’s” Adam Richman and stuff my face for about an hour for $20 and not have to worry about eating for the rest of the day. I thought they did a halfway decent job of creating a ‘cookout’ theme: they had half-sized hot dogs and burger sliders, along with BBQ chicken, in addition to the foods you’ve come to know and love. Rather than bore you with a lengthy list of what was on the four plates of food (not counting desserts) I enjoyed, I’ll just mention the one mere thing I found lacking – the fried chicken, which didn’t seem to have any seasoning on or in it.

After tipping $2 for what I would call ‘below average’ empty plate cleaning, I waddled outside the Buffet to see if that bank of multi-game machines with 9/6 JoB was still there and it was. I chose a machine on the aisle and had one of the better sessions I’ve had in a long while. I’m talking 3 quads, 5 full houses and a bunch of funky stuff like dealt straights, straights that came about after discarding all 5 cards and things of that nature. While I was never dealt four to a royal, I did end up that way once. I even lasted long enough to get a bottle of Miller Lite! Still, the law of averages being what they are, I was only up $25 after just under an hour of play. Since at one point I was actually up $60, this made things a bit less fun and my rule (borrowed from the Wizard of Odds) is, if you’re ahead, stop gambling if it isn’t fun anymore. Finally, it was a bit after 4 and I wanted to have a nice stroll back down the boards towards Caesars before catching my bus around 6:15 for a 6:40 departure. You might say that leaving was… ‘in the cards’.

The line for the jitney was predictably long, but I had the luxury of time on my side. Eventually, I was back where I started – at a machine outside Toga killing time. This turned out to be a wise decision as I quickly made another $25 thanks to a couple more full houses. I only left when I did because the seat to my right opened up and the incoming resident thought he needed to… I dunno… purify it by fanning it with his hat. Then his wife showed up. Since I didn’t really like where that was heading, I cashed out and made my way to the bus depot.

That’s when things got REALLY interesting, but I already covered that in an earlier post. Luckily, it didn’t impact our departure time at all, as our bus was able to back in down at the end and we were on our way home at 6:40, according to plan. On the way, I had a nice chat with the woman sitting next to me (I attempted to sleep on the way down). Turned out she was a VP player, too, but she went for the high volatility of Double Double Bonus.

I finally got back to KoP around 9:20 and was home by 9:40. All in all, I couldn’t have asked for a better day.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus, Part 2

Hurricane Irene seemed to have done a serious number on the beach north of Caesars. I seem to recall there being hardly any of it across from the Showboat. Well, that is still true now and, what’s more, there’s even LESS of it around where the Sands used to be. I really hope the Army Corp of Engineers comes back next year and dumps some more sand.

Resorts hasn’t changed as much as I had thought, although I guess you can either pay for all you can eat crab buffets or pay to have the art deco décor replaced with something out of Boardwalk Empire. Still, the flapper costumes on the cocktail waitresses are a nice touch and the dealers’ outfits, complete with green visors, provide interesting visuals. One other interesting feature was a group of people marching outside, presumably asking ladies wearing string bikinis to ‘untie them here’. Or maybe it was the union ‘Unite Here’ protesting Resorts, I really couldn’t tell. Their chanting was counter-balanced by placards from Resorts management explaining their side of the story.

A bit further up the boards, Revel is looking good. I couldn’t find any display of what the final product will look like (models, 3d computer images, etc), but I did find a little ‘café’ where you could buy soft drinks, shirts and hats and sign up for their emailing list. They also had some Xbox 360s with the Kinect motion system hooked up, although no one was playing them. I thought about asking the workers where the samples/models/mockups were, but they seemed less than friendly, probably due to being stuck on the northernmost end of the boardwalk on Labor Day weekend.

To be continued...

Trading

I'll have a lot more to say about trading as the traditional deadlines approach in November, but for those of you looking to do something right now, here's my main theory on trading.

Always trade from strength. I don't care if you have the worst team in your league. If you have a stud or two, do NOT give them up. Part of this is psychological: you should have 1 or 2 studs to look forward to watching each week.

The other is mathematical. I feel if you have a guy that can get you 20 points, why trade him for two guys that may get you 10 each (with occasional upside of 15)? Better to keep that guy and 'pair' him with someone who will get you 11. Last I checked, 31 > 30.

And THAT is how I trade. I keep my studs and try to trade my middling guys for someone else's stud. Remember, you can't start everyone. I like overwhelming a guy and then having him have to make a decision each week.

Probably my best example of this was a couple of years ago when I sent SJax AND Mike Sims-Walker (during his 'breakout' season) away for Thomas Jones. My trading partner already had a couple other RBs. He couldn't start ALL of them, so I wasn't really making him better. Plus, I correctly predicted that SJax was just about due for his annual season-ending injury.

Right now, I'm trying to get Andre Johnson for DJax and Harvin. Let's see if the guy bites.

What are YOUR theories on trading?