I could easily beat Bill Simmons (just not this year)

ESPN's Page 2's Sports Guy posted his top 50 fantasy players today, dropping the fact that he's got the #1 pick in his West Coast league, meaning he's taking LT2.

Any other year, though, I could take him, based on the rest of his rankings.

Shaun Alexander #3

Comeback year. You can feel it in the air.

Yes, that's right, waste the #3 pick on a RB the wrong side of 30 who needs to 'come back' in order to live up to such a high pick. Plus, this violates one of the rules he set forth years ago. Well, it's not a rule, exactly, but it goes like this: "You never want to take a guy in his 'he lost it' year." This COULD be that year for Shaun.

Joseph Addai #4

One of the fundamental mistakes of fantasy football is that people would value Addai over Alexander because it's more fun to take Addai. After all, he's the up-and-comer, the potential breakout guy, the guy with the higher ceiling. Well, why not go with the guy who's healthy and who has done it before? With your first-round pick, you should approach it like you'd bet your life on the pick. Would you bet your life on Addai doing better than Alexander this season? I sure wouldn't.

And that's why, in a nutshell, Bill Simmons isn't that good at FFB.

Willis McGahee #10

Baltimore's upgrade from Jamal Lewis to McGahee was like going from coach to first class on one of those two-floor jumbo jets like the one they used on "Snakes on a Plane." By Week 6, I see him sitting at 600-plus yards and eight TDs

I'll admit McGahee has more 'upside' than Lewis. But you're putting that two-floor jumbo jet in a rat-infested, ready-to-be-condemned hangar known as the Ravens O. I'll say that 600 yards by Week 6 is possible, if not probable, but NOT 8 TDs.

Cedric Benson #11, Marvin Harrison #12
There's no way Cedric should go this high, ahead of Harrison, to boot.

Marshawn Lynch #14, Travis Henry #15, MOJO Drew #16 (FIVE whole spots behind Reggie Bush) and Carson Palmer #17
Another one of his old precepts bite the dust, apparently: the one that most drafters are afraid of rookies, meaning you can scoop them up much later. Has he even LOOKED at the box scores of Buffalo's pre-season games???

Laurence Maroney #19
HERE'S the guy who thinks Kool-Aid will be in a timeshare with Sammy Morris; I knew there'd be someone.

Edgerrin James #20
Another ranking based on comeback potential. Pfft...

You know what? I can't even make it another 30 spots. I'm jumping right to his sleepers.

Sleeper 2: Vince Young
Ummm.... Bill... you already put him in your Top 50. He can't be both. Sigh...

Sleeper 3 (tie): Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

I'd rather grab these guys in the middle rounds over wasting a fourth-round pick on Bulger or Hasselbeck and hoping they stay healthy.

If he's wasting a fourth round pick on Hasselbeck, he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning anyway. Hasselbeck CAN be had in the 'middle rounds'. I'd rather grab HIM than one guy who's never started before and forced to work behind a bad O-line (Schaub) and a guy no longer in a Norv Turner O (Smith).

Sleeper 12: Selvin Young
Proof that Simmons turned in this column late because he was able to take advantage of Shanny screwing over all those who drafted Mike Bell or Cecil Sapp.

This is funny

This kinda sounds like me 5 years ago when I started playing FFB. This is the first worthwhile article on FoxSports.com in a while.

Also 'funny' (but not "ha ha" funny) is what happened in my 8 team league. Cutler's owner cut him and I was all set to add him and drop Schaub but I saw Jay and Kitna have the same bye week. We only get 20 add/drops in that league so I withdrew the waiver claim. Those add/drops turn into currency later in the season. Managers usually end up striking deals like "both our TEs are on a bye; let's both agree to not grab a backup and instead take zeroes" in order to save add/drops.

Another draft bites the dust

I had another draft Tuesday night, but training for my Vegas trip next week kept me from posting the results till now (learning Deuces Wild Video Poker and Pai Gow Poker on my PC).

This was another Yahoo! league, with very strange scoring. First of all, you start QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, so WRs are like currency. Second of all, the scoring format favors running/receiving TDs over yardage (although there is a .5 PPR and 3 bonus points for 300 yds/passing, 100 yds/rush and 100 yds/rec). So I altered my strategy a bit; I was helped out by getting a good slot: third!

• Joseph Addai


• Marvin Harrison


• Antonio Gates


• Deuce McAllister


• Marion Barber III


• Deion Branch


• Bernard Berrian


• LaMont Jordan


• Matt Hasselbeck


• Jerry Porter


• Fred Taylor


• Devery Henderson


• Brett Favre


• Matt Stover


• Denver


• Wes Welker

I really agonized over taking Gates with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round; it was between him and T.O.. MAYBE had I done that, I still could've ended up with Winslow or Heap later and I could've taken a better RB than Deuce, but remember, TDs are more valuable here and Deuce will get his share. Also, a LOT of good RBs went between my pick at #3 and my second. I don't have the info anymore, but I think the best available at that point was Thomas Jones, whom I am now worried about. So WR/WR was how I decided to play it, but opted instead for a TE who scores like a WR. I'm totally happy with Branch as my #2 and ecstatic with Berrian as my #3.

Fred Taylor was a "holy crap, he's still available?!" pick. And I can't believe Devery lasted as long as he did.

2 down, 2 to go

I had two drafts today. Both were Yahoo! leagues, but each was different.

The first was a 10 team league where you start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF, no PPR and passing TDs only worth 4. I had the 7th slot and came away with:

• Laurence Maroney


• Willie Parker


• Reggie Wayne


• Plaxico Burress


• Deion Branch


• Kellen Winslow


• Matt Hasselbeck


• Deuce McAllister


• Brandon Jackson


• Adrian Peterson


• Jerry Porter


• LaMont Jordan


• Seattle


• Matt Stover


• Ben Roethlisberger

I was pleased with myself for flip-flopping Plax and Deion; even though I ranked Branch higher, I had a hunch if I waited till the next round, he'd still be there. I was also happy to start the run on tight ends with my Winslow pick (Gates had gone at 3.08). I'm hoping to use a couple of the RBs as trading chips down the road.

The 2nd draft didn't go as well. It's an 8 team league and I had the 8th pick. Also, the starting lineup is QB, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DEF, plus PPR PLUS 6 points for passing TDs. I found about my slot about 20 minutes before the draft and initially settled on taking a stud QB with my 2nd pick, but... well... take a look at what happened:

• Laurence Maroney


• Larry Johnson


• Steve Smith


• Antonio Gates


• Cedric Benson


• Jon Kitna


• Matt Leinart


• Deion Branch


• Carnell Williams


• Brandon Jackson


• Darrell Jackson


• Matt Schaub


• Joey Galloway


• DeAngelo Williams


• Matt Stover


• Jacksonville

Yup, I took LJ instead. I gambled that I'd still be able to get my #6 QB, McNabb, in round 3, but it wasn't to be. So I did the next best thing and took Gates! As you can see, I missed out on the run for backup QBs as well and had to settle for Schaub. Well, the good thing about this league is that a lot of decent players are still available and I can add/drop if absolutely necessary.

By the way, Maroney had himself a heck of a game Friday night, no? Good thing I had no plans on drafting Travis Henry instead! I have a hunch, though, that some 'experts' out there will make mention of Sammy Morris getting some carries and use that as an excuse to dump on Laurence. We'll see if I'm right this week!

Oh... great... THESE guys...

To be fair, they've been posting semi-regularly over at fantasy.sportsline.com. I just haven't been paying attention because a) I know they suck and 2) my one league that uses sportsline didn't really 'get going' until the other day.

Who are these guys? Call them any derogatory name you want, just don't call the big one late for dinner. In short, these are the guys you DON'T want to listen to. If you used The Princeton Review for SAT prep (like I did... 15 years ago), you may remember "Joe Blogs". Joe Blogs is the average guy who gets an average SAT score b/c he gets the easy stuff right, bats .500 against the slightly harder stuff and always guesses wrong on the hard questions.

Let's look at what they had to say lately, after letting their backwards caps cut off the flow of blood to their brains (can't link to their articles b/c they're 'exclusive' to Sportsline fantasy players):

On whether to trade Maroney for Travis Henry

I would absolutely make the trade for Henry. We have seen what Mike Shanahan has done with a bunch of no-name running backs (Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns), but now he inherits a back with a ton of talent. Maroney is an up-and-coming talent, but if you look at his track record, he has done his best work in a tandem situation going all the way back to his days in college at Minnesota.

Yeah, good advice. Then when Shanny decides to give serious reps to Mike Bell or even Cecil Sapp for whatever reason, you'll feel like a chump. You may also want to keep the RB with the established QB, but hey, I just do this for free (and also, I wear my cap forward).

On Vince Young

2007 projections: 262-of-443 passing, 2,932 yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions in 15 games
Outlook: Young also is projected to rush for 524 yards and six touchdowns this season, and it's his rushing numbers along with his passing totals that make him a No. 1 Fantasy QB. There is a concern with the lack of experienced weapons in the passing game, but expect Young to make up for that by making those younger players better.

He'll make them better, all right, or else he'll bop them in their helmetted heads with his throwing hand! And, I'm sorry, but his main weapons are all tight ends. He's not sniffing 3000 yards in the air; no way.
Editor's note: upon further review, I realized that a QB needs to average LESS THAN 200 YARDS A GAME to finish the year at 3000 yards, so maybe Vince can sniff that many.

On Jay Cutler

2007 projections: 313-of-491 passing, 3,702 yards, 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions in 16 games
Outlook: Cutler started the final five games of the season last year and showed why he is a No. 1 Fantasy QB going into this season. He has plenty of talent around him ... Cutler may have early growing pains since his playing time was limited last year, but he should improve in his second season.

So he'll have growing pains, but he'll be a #1 QB and get kinda close to 4000 yards? Does the guy who wrote this realize that Shanny likes to RUN the ball?

On Matt Leinart

2007 projections: 317-of-516 passing, 3,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions in 15 games
Outlook: Leinart has the chance to significantly improve this season because of the new coaching staff and the players around him. With stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald and the expected upgrade in the running game with Edgerrin James, Leinart should thrive. He'll start the season on the cusp of a starting Fantasy option, but don't be surprised if he's your starting QB by the end of the year.

Okay, I'll be honest: this one I kind of agree with. It may be a little high, but the numbers sound about right. I don't understand how he can be 'on the cusp' of being a #1 Fantasy QB, while Cutler already is, but then again, I've got 100% bloodflow to my brain.

On Tavaris Jackson

2007 projections: 236-of-391 passing, 2,657 yards, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions in 14 games
Outlook: Jackson has the most work to do going from his rookie year to this season. He had limited playing time last year, and the Vikings have no wide receivers to speak of coming into the season. The Vikings are counting on Jackson to improve, but he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy option. He might end up surprising you, but don't worry about wasting a draft pick on him.

If you waste a draft pick on Jackson, you've got bigger things to worry about because you probably F'ed up elsewhere in your draft as well.

And this, in a nutshell, is my main problem with these guys: they LOVE EVERYBODY! Studs are super-studs. Middle-tier guys are studs. Sleepers are 'almost studs that you should still draft'. It's almost as if they're afraid of offending an NFL player or something.

NO at KC: Data mining

Purely looking at the GameCenter page from CBS Sportsline, I can only offer the following:

• NO played it safe, especially with Reggie Bush (who had ZERO catches, while Deuce had 4!). Still, Reggie was able to get 51 yards on just 6 rushes. Also MIA was Marques Colston and Devery Henderson.


• Brodie Croyle STINKS. Larry Johnson will face 9 men in the box ALL YEAR if the QB situation in KC doesn't improve.

JAX at GB: What have we learned, Charlie Brown?

Not much I'm afraid. "Learning" implies new information and I either saw confirmation of existing knowledge or a muddying of the waters.

• Brandon Jackson is good, but JAX's D is better (11 rushes for 20 yards and a TD). He did chip in 4 catches for 23 yards, too.


• Greg Jennings caught a couple of balls could be back in the WR mix, even though James Jones went off (6 for 80).


• The above item is moot if Donald Driver misses considerable time because then both of those guys are worth drafting.


• The WRs NOT worth drafting all had jaguar heads on their helmets. I *think* Wilford and Northcutt started. Leftwich overthrew Northcutt twice. Reggie Williams, who somehow was their 'leading receiver' in 06, had some looks. Matt Jones had a drop or two, but had a nice catch-n-run once Garrard took over. If Del Rio can't make a decision, how can YOU make one?


• Speaking of "Lord" Byron, the only time he looked good was when Labrandon Toefield came in the game. If you could guarantee that Byron will ONLY ever throw to Toefield this season, I'll happily bump him up my rankings. If you can't guarantee me that, I'll assume we're in for another year of sacks, a slow throwing motion, overthrows, dropped passes and the inevitable mid-season injury.


• I really wanted to see who lined up in the backfield when JAX got down near the goal line, but by the time that happened, Taylor and Jones-Drew were out of the game. So I can't give any credence to this Pancake Blocks entry regarding Greg Jones, back from injury, becoming a TD vulture.


• I think I came away most impressed with the Packers D. They handled the 1-2 punch of the Jags' RBs and weren't lured to sleep by Leftwich's windup. Considering the offenses in the rest of the NFC North, GB MAY be worth drafting if you somehow get caught with your pants down at the end of your draft.