Monday, April 30, 2007

Draft Day Fallout

Due to the joys of home ownership and also of new fatherhood, I needed some time to sit back and think about the draft. I made it a point to avoid as much analysis as possible, but now that this is out there, I'll start surfing the usual sites to see what the non-common-sensical 'experts' think.

Draft Picks

  • For all the hype surrounding JaMarcus Russell, Oakland is going to get worse before they get better. Russell probably won't start; Andrew Walter most likely will. Not that he has anyone to throw to, what with the trade of Randy Moss to New England and the continuing disappearing act that is Jerry Porter. One move Oakland made that I like was the drafting of RB Michael Bush. It'll be interesting to see how he's used, since he stacks up behind Dominic Rhodes and Lamont Jordan on the depth chart; maybe he'll be the goal line back?


  • Calvin Johnson was a great pick by Detroit, but don't overvalue him. The lower-middle rounds seems about right for the guy. You never know how long it'll take him to learn Mike Martz's offense. That said, he's a definite value play if someone else takes him early, Calvin struggles the first couple of weeks and you can trade for him!

    Where Detroit really dropped the ball was in the 2nd round, where they traded down, giving the overall 34th pick in the draft to Buffalo, who took Penn State LB Paul Posluszny. Why Detroit wouldn't want this guy is beyond me. But I'm digressing; you don't really care about the fantasy impact to Buffalo's D, right?


  • Sticking with Buffalo, though, their first round pick of RB Marshawn Lynch was truly inspired. After trading away McGahee, the thought was the Bills would employ a RB-by-committee approach. Now, however, I look for Lynch to be a true feature-back. A middle-round pick sounds about right here.


  • Cleveland's drafting Joe Thomas is good for Jamal Lewis, but the drafting of Brady Quinn is probably bad for Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow II. Still, there's not a lot of star TEs out there, so Kellen can't slip TOO much.


  • Arizona taking Levi Brown is good news for Edge, Leinart and the whole rest of the team.


  • Miami taking Ted Ginn Jr. made no sense. You drafting him makes about as much. Maybe Trent Green ends up in Miami or maybe he doesn't.


  • Many many other WRs: too many to remember or name and quite franky, it's not worth your time either. For example, there's "the guy who went to KC". That's KC, where the #1 WR is the #3 option in the passing game and they've still got Eddie Kennison as their #1. Plus Trent Green wants out. I'm not saying this new guy won't make some grabs; I'm saying you shouldn't draft him at all.

    Then there's "the guy who went to New Orleans". I'm guessing he'll be behind Colston, Henderson and Copper. Not an enviable place to be. Don't draft him either.


Trades

  • Randy Moss to NE: Great for Randy, but you've already placed Brady in your top tier for QBs well before this, right? RIGHT???!! Another possible effect of this trade is that Donte' Stallworth won't be 'the man', which may keep him healthy. Nah, he was injury-prone with the Saints when they had Joe Horn.

  • Darryl Jackson to SF: Great for Deion Branch back in Seattle, that's about it. I'm still very concerned as to how the 49ers O will fare without Norv Turner. It's very possible Alex Smith regresses, opposing D's key on Frank Gore and the whole offense stalls. I think D-Jax should slide DOWN your chart, not up.