What's My Motivation?

Unlike baseball, where a level head produces better results, football requires maximum aggression/motivation. For years, I've done pretty well picking games against the spread simply by asking myself "Which team is more motivated?" This often works regardless of the teams' records. An elite team looking past a cellar-dweller often fails to cover.

In fantasy, though, it's not quite so simple. Regular football is a team game, but I'm trying to figure out which individual players will perform at their peaks. Here, motivations vary. I've already said that players who get paid in the off-season take the following year off; we're already seeing this with CJ2K. Sometimes, bringing in competition lights a fire under a RB's butt, like with Ryan Matthews. Sometimes, though, it's the reverse - Beanie Wells didn't start performing until his competition went on the IR.

The best I can do is play armchair psychologist and try and figure out what teams and players are thinking.

Now, it'd be easy to say that a team like the Chiefs isn't motivated, so I won't even waste any more time on them. Instead, I'd like to talk about some players whom you may not expect. This is going to sound eerily similar to my earlier "Trench Warfare" column, as I firmly believe that O-line play determines overall team morale. Hey, if you got hit more often than your peers, wouldn't you be less motivated too?

Roethlisberger, Mendenhall and Wallace - PIT got embarassed by the Ravens in Week 1 and nearly lost to IND on Sunday. Their O-line is a mess and their secondary is having trouble covering. Mendenhall's numbers are down and Big Ben is running for his life. For now, I'll trust Mike Tomlin to motivate his players, but I would also start trying to move Mike Wallace if the price is right.

Romo, Jones, Dez and Miles - that O-line looked dreadful on MNF and Romo can't throw the ball that far. Will Dez and Miles become frustrated at the lack of looks and can Felix Jones find enough holes AND deal with a bum shoulder? The only 'winner' on the team is Jason Witten who would benefit from Romo's reduced range. Hmmm... maybe Wallace for Witten straight up?

Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler - as with PIT, the O-lines of CHI and ATL are a mess and the QBs have been getting killed. How long before it affects their level of play? I'll reserve judgment on Mike Smith, but I've already seen enough of Lovie Smith to know he's not motivating this team to rise above this issue.

Mark Sanchez and Dustin Keller - another team with O-line woes, but Rex Ryan is a master motivator. Notice I didn't list Shonn Greene; I think he needs something even Rex can't provide.

Jason Campbell, Run DMC, Jacoby Ford and Darius Moore - ah ha! Trick question! This team IS properly motivated. Even Heyward-Bey is overachieving (for him, anyway).

Eli Manning - I'd say that it pains me to say this, but it doesn't. It's been downhill since Super Bowl 42 and now he looks like a jilted lover who's missing both Kevin Boss and Steve Smith. The Giants, overall, may be 2-1, but how long before his attitude wears thin on the defense? Also, how long before the team as a whole stops listening to Tom Coughlin?

Everything I Know Is Wrong

They say there's nothing more boring than hearing someone talk about their fantasy teams, but I'm hoping this is generic enough to help you with yours and maybe spur some discussion in the comments.

• Where is Ryan Matthews 'On' switch and why didn't he flip it in the pre-season? It would figure the one week I take a chance on Mike Tolbert, Matthews put the final nail in Kool-Aid's coffin.
• I have three teams and we're now in Week 3. I think I've now played AGAINST most combinations of Brady/Welker/NE-tight-end-du-jour, but I'm sure there's one coming in Week 4. So, of course when I try to jump on the gravy train and start Deion Branch in 2 leagues, he posts a big fat zero. What can I learn from this? Post your thoughts in the comments.
• Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and the QB for the Eagles could all conceivably be grievously harmed due to their inept O-lines.
• Furthermore, the only RB who seems to be able to overcome this, on the ground, is Lesean McCoy. At least Matt Forte and Ladanian Tomlinson can contribute through the air. Somewhere in between is Michael Turner.
• Shonn Greene and Adrian Peterson are doing it with smoke and mirrors. I'm not sorry, yet, I traded away AP for Arian Foster and I may try to sell moderately-high on Greene.
• I'll come right out and say it: PPR is really getting on my nerves. It can really help or really hurt. It doesn't seem like there's an in-between.
• Desean Jackson may be the most overrated WR out there.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus: Conclusion

My curiosity satisfied, I made my way out to Pacific Ave. to jitney (yes, I just turned ‘jitney’ into a verb) over to the Borgata. The one bad thing about this plan is that by the time most jitneys make it that far, they’re often full so you have to wait a bit longer. Still, the wait was worth it, both due to the destination and the nice new jitneys all the drivers had to buy. Speaking of the drivers, I don’t know why they get such a bad rep. When I was on line waiting to get back to Pacific from the Borgata, a lot of folks weren’t too happy about the waits and the apparent randomness of their routes. The way I see it, these drivers have to buy their own vehicles, maintain them and fill them with gas which is still over $3.50 a gallon. Then they have to drive them around AC for who knows how many hours with who knows how few breaks, dealing with all sorts of people. All for $2.25 a ride.

The first order of business upon reaching the Borgata was lunch. I scoped out the Buffet and the Cafeteria and ultimately went back to the Buffet so I could make like “Man vs. Food’s” Adam Richman and stuff my face for about an hour for $20 and not have to worry about eating for the rest of the day. I thought they did a halfway decent job of creating a ‘cookout’ theme: they had half-sized hot dogs and burger sliders, along with BBQ chicken, in addition to the foods you’ve come to know and love. Rather than bore you with a lengthy list of what was on the four plates of food (not counting desserts) I enjoyed, I’ll just mention the one mere thing I found lacking – the fried chicken, which didn’t seem to have any seasoning on or in it.

After tipping $2 for what I would call ‘below average’ empty plate cleaning, I waddled outside the Buffet to see if that bank of multi-game machines with 9/6 JoB was still there and it was. I chose a machine on the aisle and had one of the better sessions I’ve had in a long while. I’m talking 3 quads, 5 full houses and a bunch of funky stuff like dealt straights, straights that came about after discarding all 5 cards and things of that nature. While I was never dealt four to a royal, I did end up that way once. I even lasted long enough to get a bottle of Miller Lite! Still, the law of averages being what they are, I was only up $25 after just under an hour of play. Since at one point I was actually up $60, this made things a bit less fun and my rule (borrowed from the Wizard of Odds) is, if you’re ahead, stop gambling if it isn’t fun anymore. Finally, it was a bit after 4 and I wanted to have a nice stroll back down the boards towards Caesars before catching my bus around 6:15 for a 6:40 departure. You might say that leaving was… ‘in the cards’.

The line for the jitney was predictably long, but I had the luxury of time on my side. Eventually, I was back where I started – at a machine outside Toga killing time. This turned out to be a wise decision as I quickly made another $25 thanks to a couple more full houses. I only left when I did because the seat to my right opened up and the incoming resident thought he needed to… I dunno… purify it by fanning it with his hat. Then his wife showed up. Since I didn’t really like where that was heading, I cashed out and made my way to the bus depot.

That’s when things got REALLY interesting, but I already covered that in an earlier post. Luckily, it didn’t impact our departure time at all, as our bus was able to back in down at the end and we were on our way home at 6:40, according to plan. On the way, I had a nice chat with the woman sitting next to me (I attempted to sleep on the way down). Turned out she was a VP player, too, but she went for the high volatility of Double Double Bonus.

I finally got back to KoP around 9:20 and was home by 9:40. All in all, I couldn’t have asked for a better day.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus, Part 2

Hurricane Irene seemed to have done a serious number on the beach north of Caesars. I seem to recall there being hardly any of it across from the Showboat. Well, that is still true now and, what’s more, there’s even LESS of it around where the Sands used to be. I really hope the Army Corp of Engineers comes back next year and dumps some more sand.

Resorts hasn’t changed as much as I had thought, although I guess you can either pay for all you can eat crab buffets or pay to have the art deco décor replaced with something out of Boardwalk Empire. Still, the flapper costumes on the cocktail waitresses are a nice touch and the dealers’ outfits, complete with green visors, provide interesting visuals. One other interesting feature was a group of people marching outside, presumably asking ladies wearing string bikinis to ‘untie them here’. Or maybe it was the union ‘Unite Here’ protesting Resorts, I really couldn’t tell. Their chanting was counter-balanced by placards from Resorts management explaining their side of the story.

A bit further up the boards, Revel is looking good. I couldn’t find any display of what the final product will look like (models, 3d computer images, etc), but I did find a little ‘café’ where you could buy soft drinks, shirts and hats and sign up for their emailing list. They also had some Xbox 360s with the Kinect motion system hooked up, although no one was playing them. I thought about asking the workers where the samples/models/mockups were, but they seemed less than friendly, probably due to being stuck on the northernmost end of the boardwalk on Labor Day weekend.

To be continued...

Trading

I'll have a lot more to say about trading as the traditional deadlines approach in November, but for those of you looking to do something right now, here's my main theory on trading.

Always trade from strength. I don't care if you have the worst team in your league. If you have a stud or two, do NOT give them up. Part of this is psychological: you should have 1 or 2 studs to look forward to watching each week.

The other is mathematical. I feel if you have a guy that can get you 20 points, why trade him for two guys that may get you 10 each (with occasional upside of 15)? Better to keep that guy and 'pair' him with someone who will get you 11. Last I checked, 31 > 30.

And THAT is how I trade. I keep my studs and try to trade my middling guys for someone else's stud. Remember, you can't start everyone. I like overwhelming a guy and then having him have to make a decision each week.

Probably my best example of this was a couple of years ago when I sent SJax AND Mike Sims-Walker (during his 'breakout' season) away for Thomas Jones. My trading partner already had a couple other RBs. He couldn't start ALL of them, so I wasn't really making him better. Plus, I correctly predicted that SJax was just about due for his annual season-ending injury.

Right now, I'm trying to get Andre Johnson for DJax and Harvin. Let's see if the guy bites.

What are YOUR theories on trading?

I'm Asking Myself, "Do I Feel Lucky?"

After 2 weeks of fake football, I'm 0-2, 1-1 and 1-1.

Now, just by looking at the first record, you may think I'm panicking, but I'm not. At least not yet. In Week 1, my opponent caught lightning in a bottle and I only lost this week by 8. I think I have the horses; I just have to get a little more out of them. No major changes are planned, as I just need my luck to change a bit. I don't want to be so 'skillful' that I think myself out of some wins.

My 1-1 teams are beset by injuries. Austin, Bryant, FJones, Foster (yes, Foster; I did end up trading AP for him and now I'm paying for it) are all banged up. And yes, I see the irony in outthinking myself and trading for Foster. I still think, though, that if I can hang around until he gets healthy, I'll be fine. And, more importantly, I think AP falls off a cliff soon, maybe even in Week 3 against the Lions.

My 3rd most important team is the one that concerns me most, as I'm not keeping pace with respect to total points and losing Foster will only make things worse. The first thing I'm doing is benching Schaub for Stafford. Houston seems to have a more balanced O. Detroit, on the other hand, knows they need to air it out b/c Jahvid Best isn't a clock-killer.

Finally, to switch gears over to my survivor pool, I definitely feel lucky about the Redskins win. I think I'll take Week 3 off and take Pitt against Indy.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus - Part 1

I’ve always said that gambling is when ‘desire’ meets ‘opportunity’. Well, opportunity came a-knockin’ on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend, in the form of my wife and kids being on a ‘girls only’ vacation in Lancaster with my mother-in-law. Saturday was actually their ‘go home’ day, but I knew my family wouldn’t get back to the house until around 6 pm. And since my usual runnin’ buddies weren’t able to join me, I saw this as the perfect chance to take the bus and leave the driving (and the increasing tolls) to someone else.

A few things have changed since I last took the bus in 2009. My bus left King of Prussia at 10, not 9, the stops were different and we got 6 hours, not 5, to spend in AC. The price went up by a buck to $26. But perhaps most importantly, the bus was PACKED! Now, maybe the nice weather had something to do with it, or maybe it was the change in the route. Either way, I spent the bulk of my travel time with my seat in its full upright and locked position. “Now everyone can be comfortable,” said the guy behind me after he asked me to put my seat up so his friend had some legroom. Yeah, buddy, you’re not 6’2”.

Oh, one other positive change: we got down to Caesars in about 2.5 hours, so I was on my way to the 9/6 progressive JoB machines by Toga with a $25 slot play coupon by around 12:30 pm. Sadly, that bank has dwindled to six machines and everyone knows about them, so I had to wait a bit for one to open up. Once it did, though, I quickly paid for my travel, thanks to a dealt full house and some other good hands that let me cash out with $30 in real money. I headed North on the boardwalk to check out what Hurricane Irene did to the beach, pop in on Resorts and see their new (to me) Roaring Twenties theme and, finally, see how Revel was coming along.

To be continued...

Surviving Week 2

Instead of trying (and failing) to pick games against the spread (which I only did for fun for the past few years), I'll share my 'survivor pool' pick each week, since I still do that for... more than fun.

I should've posted this last week, but I didn't think of it. Hey, this blog is a work in progress!

Last week, I thought long and hard (heh, I said 'long and hard') about the Browns, but luckily for me I switched to the Cardinals. They gave me a scare for a good part of that game, but pulled through.

Now, I'll go against them, since they're travelling across the country to play the Redskins at 1 pm. I still don't like ARI's O-line and the 'skins have an up and coming D.

In fact, I'm 'streaming' that D in my main fantasy league after kicking ATL to the waiver wire.

Good luck to all my reader! (see what I did there?)

Trench Warfare

Just like in the real game, the fantasy game is decided in the trenches. You won't get much from that stud RB if the line can't block and the passing game won't click if the QB is running for his life.

I didn't watch a lot of football this weekend, but between what I've seen and what I've read, here are some O-line issues to keep an eye on. This early in the season, I'd make decisions based on this rather than individual numbers. Assuming you drafted well, I wouldn't make any rash decisions unless you think the new player will significantly outplay the old one. Remember, those experts are paid to write columns, so they have to hype Cam Newton and Randall Cobb and all. I am not!

• New York Jets: I'll give them a mulligan this week for having to face a Rob Ryan defense and also b/c they seemed committed to the pass and not to the run.
• Dallas Cowboys: ditto, just sub 'Rex' for 'Rob'.
• Minnesota Vikings: I read in the pre-season that they had the 31st or 32nd ranked line and they definitely got exposed by the Chargers. This issue concerns me more, because it's basically Adrian Peterson and no one else. As such, I'm trying to parlay his near 100 yards rushing into a trade with the guy who has Arian Foster. Hey, it could work!
• Atlanta Falcons: I would normally write this off as "they faced the Bears", but when commenters on The Big Lead repeatedly call ATL's line 'hot garbage', I listen. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll find a buyer for Matt Ryan, but if I could, I would think about it. ATL faces quite a few stout Ds in teh coming weeks.
• Pittsburgh Steelers: I believe they were the oldest line in the league and now Colon is gone for the season again. Luckily, Big Ben is great at extending plays by scrambling, so he should be okay. I'm more worried about Rashard Mendenhall, as he has a lot of miles on him.
• Philadelphia Eagles: it doesn't look like they've flipped the switch to 'on' since I talked about this during the pre-season. But, again, Vick and McCoy can overcome.
• New Orleans Saints: GB has a good D and I'll just chalk this up to opening night jitters on the road.
• Indianapolis Colts: the buzz on The Big Lead is that Bill Polian has been screwing up the O-line for years and now, without Peyton, the chickens have come home to roost. If I had any Colts, I'd be selling.

Monday Night Linkability

I'm sitting here watching 2 out of my 3 fantasy leads disappearing (against Brady in one league and Welker in another), so I thought I'd share some links I've been saving up.

AoM article on Viewers vs Do-ers: Perfect for the start of football season, when most people spend hours on the couch each weekend. I would argue that playing FFB makes you more of a 'do-er', as watching the games is like scouting, making trades requires negotiation skills and auction drafts (and some waiver systems) require money management skills.

Chris Christie picks a fight with Vegas: There are probably MUCH better articles out there about this (some of the man-on-the-street quotes were dreadful), but this is the one I saw. I have to be fair - I hated when Obama bashed Vegas so I can't side with Christie here. It's better to say what you do well than what your opponent, allegedly, can't do.

My Power Rankings: A bit late if you needed these for your survivor pool (so, so glad I burned Arizona; I have no desire to ever pick them again). I don't plan on changing them too frequently; I try to avoid knee-jerk reactions. If anything, the Seahawks drop down to the basement since they lost to the previous cellar-dwelling Niners.

How I'm Avoiding the 1 PM Games This Week

As a husband, a father of two and a homeowner, I have to pick my battles. I discovered that there's little point in trying to follow all the 1 pm games. They all kick-off, then they go to commercial. Then the teams spend the first 22 minutes of the game figuring each other out.

There's always something to do and this is the perfect time to get those things done.

Today's project is...

Replacing the DVD drive in our Nintendo Wii. It's not under warranty anymore and apparently, if you leave WiiConnect24 on and leave the unit in standby for too long, the fan never runs. The overheating kills the drive.

Wish me luck!

What the Lists Over On the Right are Not

Hey all, I just want to point out that now that the season has started and most if not all drafts are done, the rankings will not be updated.

I would LOVE for this to be my full time job and I could analyze all the games and adjust every week, but unfortunately, this is a hobby. I also don't want to get involved in analyzing matchups. I shy away from that, for the most part. Your studs should never sit.

You've drafted your teams. You should have an idea who your starters and your backups are. My 'Declaration of Principles' page discusses how to approach the tougher line-up decisions.

When in doubt, though, don't hesitate to ask via a comment to the most recent posting.

Best of luck to us all!

How to Blow 1/3rd of Your Budget on AP and Still Get a Good Team

As you may surmise from the title, I had an auction draft today. It was my first one, despite the fact that I was in the league last year (I had to let the 'bot handle that one and it totally screwed me). I deliberately avoided any articles talking about auction draft strategy for a couple of reasons. One, I had a hunch, based on last year, that this league is different in the sense that people blow their wads early and then have to scrounge around the 'dollar bin' late; I thus figured I could make hay 'in the middle', as it were. Secondly, I've been watching a lot of 'Storage Wars' on A&E, so I figured that was just as good.

Well, it didn't start out so good. Despite IE 8 being just fine for a snake draft, it wouldn't show me the list of players for an auction draft. Panicked, when the 'bot auto-nominated AP for me, I immediately bid $67 (out of $200), figuring I'd either get him or seriously cripple someone else. Well, I got him.

I then switched over to Opera and that made things a lot better. I settled into my strategy: bid up the marquee players and try and get people to overspend early. This worked, for the most part. I bid up players like Peyton Hillis and Darren McFadden; I did end up getting 'stuck' with Larry Fitzgerald for $45, though, so I decided I'd only drive up the spending on players I wouldn't mind having myself. Also, I wouldn't actually nominate players I wanted, choosing instead to nominate Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, etc..

Once my opponents were hurting for cash, I was able to scoop up some awesome talent at considerable value. By the end, when they could only pay $1 for a player, I was able to beat them since I could bid at least $2.

Here's how I did; oh, the league is PPR:

1. Adrian Peterson, $67
2. Larry Fitzgerald, $45
3. Felix Jones, $14 (Yeah, I'm going all in on Felix this year)
4. Tim Hightower, $12 (didn't mind getting stuck with him)
5. Mark Ingram, $9 (ditto)
6. Stevie Johnson, $8 (ditto x 2)
7. Percy Harvin, $8
8. Kevin Kolb, $1 (I nominated him hoping someone else would bite; oops)
9. Dez Bryant, $8 (here's where the plan came together, as now I had the $ to outbid others for players I'd targetted)
10. Matt Schaub, $3 (so, I got my backup QB first and my starter 2nd)
11. Santonio Holmes, $4 (another case of me being flush with cash allowing me to get a good player in a PPR league at a deep discount)
12. Jimmy Graham, $6 (see above)
13. Matt Stafford, $3 (at this point, I didn't know who had which QBs but I wanted to a. play keep away and b. get him as trade bait)
14. Mike Tolbert, $2 (I feel bad for whomever nominated him for a buck only to lose him to me for two! This league favors catches and TDs and he'll give me both.)
15. Johnny Knox, Lance Kendricks, Dustin Keller, Nick Folk, DAL D, $1 each.

Bus Hit by Caesars AC. Film at 11.

Full TR coming later once I've gotten some sleep, but this couldn't wait.

In a shocking display of mobility for a building (especially one the size of a casino), Caesars moved enough to push the awning of the bus depot into a bus. It also pushed the curb up under the front tires.

Witnesses, who I never rely on, claim that the driver either hit the gas instead of the brake or the brakes actually failed, but that's not as big a news story as a building moving.

I have a photo on my disposable camera (my wife took the good camera to Lancaster to shoot pictures of cows), so I'll post that when it's developed.

Luckily, this didn't occur to my bus and I also won $80 playing Jacks or Better at Caesars and the Borgata.

Have a safe Labor Day weekend everyone!

Pre-season Week 3: Two-Pack B

I only had two games on my DVR today: the previously mentioned, and awful, Browns/Eagles tilt and the Cowboys/Vikings game. Guess which one I enjoyed more?
CLE @ PHI

• I'll start here so the post ends on a positive note. This was an ugly game before the rain started. I stopped watching when it began to fall because I couldn't take it any longer.
• Colt McCoy wasn't terrible, but he wasn't great. I think the lack of talent at the other skill positions is catching up to him.
• Peyton Hillis didn't play much, which I don't mind. They HAVE to keep him fresh leading into, and then during, the regular season. Averaging 6 yards per carry on 3 rushes, still, though, is nothing to sneeze at.
• It looks like the Ben Watson era is over before it really truly began. I'm hearing he'll be staying in to block more and Evan Moore will be the TE to own. That said, he was out for this game.
• On the Philly side of the ball, it was the Lesean McCoy show, as Mike Vick was in checkdown mode all night.
• I do a lot of fast-forwarding while watching these games, but I managed to catch something interesting from the announcers: both Vick and Desean Jackson are short. It's hard for one to find the other when the protection breaks down. On one of the few targets DJax had, Vick just kinda threw it up there and it was picked.
• Still don't think Brent Celek is rosterable.

DAL @ MIN

• Man, it's going to be tough not having Adrian Peterson on any teams this year, unless I pay through the nose in an auction draft. I heard bad things about MIN's O-line, but if you figure that Rob Ryan has 'fixed' DAL's D, the fact that AP ran so well speaks volumes.
• It was nice to see Percy Harvin on the field for a change. Donovan McNabb was spreading the ball around, but if I had to guess, he's got a bit more chemistry with Harvin. Plus, they can use him out of the backfield.
• I overheard Visanthe Schiancoe say that this year's O will favor the TE a bit more than in years past. McNabb learned that TEs can catch the ball from Chris Cooley, so there may be some value there. Still, my "show, don't tell" rule applies.
• Maybe it was b/c Miles Austin didn't play, but DAL really did everything in their power to get the ball to Dez Bryant and he didn't disappoint. I wonder about how those two will split touches once their on the field at the same time.
• It was nice to see Felix Jones play well. It was even nicer to see him get 'near the goal-line' touches.

Pre-season Week 3: TWO-Pack #1

I don't know what happened on NFL Network. A bunch of their game replays got shifted to the right but my channel guide never caught up. I actually had four games I could've watched, but I've heard so many negative things about Browns/Eagles that I don't have the desire to watch it yet. On the other side of the coin, it sounded like Packers/Colts was a good game, but the only thing I'm interested in there is the Colts' RB battle and I'm just not going to get a good sense of it with Curtis Painter under center. Maybe I'll have a change of heart tomorrow or maybe my DVR will record complete games for a change. In the meantime...

NOR @ OAK

• Seeing Jimmy Graham reel in passes like Jermichael Finley makes me feel like a bit of a chump for overpaying for Finley. I won't make that mistake again.
• Unfortunately, this means that Marques Colston is just another guy now. Hey, they should give Jimmy WR eligibility too, so his owners can use him wherever like we were able to do with Colston back in the day. Man, those were good times.
• The NOR RB situation is still muddled, as Pierre Thomas cashed in a chance from in close.
• On the Raiders' offensive side of the ball, assuming NOR did, in fact, shore up their run D, then the OAK O-line did a great job opening holes for Michael Bush. This makes me happy to be a Darren McFadden owner.
• If you forced me to draft an OAK WR, I'd take Denarius Moore. Jason Campbell looked his way a lot and I think he'll at least rack up the catches. Maybe that'll change when Jacoby Ford gets back, but maybe not. It's not like Heyward-Bay is worth owning. Hey, remember Chaz Schillens?

CHI @ TEN

• This game started off slow, but once both teams found their rhythms, it was very entertaining... my 2nd favorite game of the week so far.
• If you had eyes, you could actually see Roy Williams play his way out of a job. Two catches, a couple of drops and a tipped ball that was intercepted. Johnny Knox is now roster-able again!
• Perhaps even more roster-able? Earl Bennett, who had the 'Vanderbuilt Connection' thing with Jay Cutler working. He'd be a nice player in deeper PPR leagues.
• FYI, Devin Hester was never rosterable to begin with. At this time last year, I was all about Knox and that Aromashadu guy who I don't think is even in the league anymore.
• Matt Forte took a little while to get going, but once he did, he erased many doubts I had about CHI's O-line.
• TEN has a good RB as well. Perhaps you've heard of him. Well, assuming he comes back, he'll blow through the holes TEN's O-line was opening for his understudies all night. Do I wish I had drafted him instead of Ray Rice? Ask me again in December. Right now, I'd still rather have the guy who's been practicing and who's starting QB is not Matt Hasselbeck (who actually looked okay).
• Speaking of... if Matt targets Kenny Britt the way he targetted Nate Washington, Britt will be top 10 in PPR leagues.
• Jared Cook? Still not convinced; not with a "2 rec, 16 yds" performance.

Pre-season Week 3: Four-Pack #2

SEA @ DEN

• I eventually had to give up on watching the Seahawks on offense, b/c Leon Washington is the only player there worth watching. I actually think he'd be a sneaky play as a backup in medium leagues.
• Denver didn't really look in synch much on O, either. I think Kyle Orton was trying to work rookie TE Julius Thomas (not bolded b/c I'm not ranking him) into the mix.
• I can't tell who the WR2 is, as Eddie Royal and Eric Decker seemed to get equal targets (and Decker got a TD). And you know what they say: "when you've got 2 WRs, you don't really have any".
• As far as the WR1 goes, I think Brandon Lloyd is still a top 10 WR in the National Football League. His actual stats were light, but the targets were there.
• Equally muddy is the RB situation, as Moreno put up the numbers but McGahee found paydirt. Knoshown did look faster, but had trouble running between the tackles. Well, I just need them for Week 5 and then I can jettison one or both.

MIA @ TB

• The Dolphins remind me of the Cardinals: lull you to sleep with some short passes to Anthony Fasano (bolded b/c I'm ranking him) and then BAM hit you with a bomb to Brandon Marshall. I think it's time to rank Chad Henne
• The difference being we know who the WR2 is in Miami: Davone Bess. And he's great in PPR leagues, too.
• I'm worried about Reggie Bush. He had little room to run inside or outside and had trouble catching the ball.
• I still don't like what I'm seeing from Josh Freeman. His best pass of the night was to LeGarrette Blount who did most of the work after the catch.

NE @ DET

• Despite having Matt Stafford as my QB2 in a 2-QB league, I'm realistic; as such, I realize a good chunk of yardage came on a screen to Jerome Harrison and what I'll call a broken play to Calvin Johnson.
• Just when you thought Brandon Pettigrew was the only TE in the picture, Tony Scheffler re-emerges and, for lack of a better term, 'vultures' a TD.
• I don't think Tom Brady targetted Chad Ochocinco all night. Maybe it was the pass rush, or maybe, as reports have stated, Chad has 'sucked' in practice.
• Aaron Hernandez won the battle with Rob Gronkowski in this game, but all that means that next time, Rob will win. Or maybe not. This is why I'm not drafting either.

HOU @ SF

• On the first play of the game, Matt Schaub tried to throw a screen, but a leaping SF defender picked it off. I'm trading Schaub.
• Later, after catching a pass, Owen Daniels fumbled. I'm trading him too.
• Arian Foster? Hurt. I wouldn't trade Leon Washington for him.
• Yeah, it's late and it's not like I can say anything positive about the Niners. Oh, I'm downgrading Vernon Davis. That's something I'm 'positive' about.

Pre-season Week 3: Four-Pack #1

ATL @ PIT

• The great thing about this game is that it felt like it was Week 8 of the regular season and not Week 3 in the pre-season. Neither team was 'working on something'; they were just trying to win. I believe this means it'll be highly indicative of what we can see when they start playing for real.
• As such, Matt Ryan is in for a stellar season, but on the flip side, I can't point to just one WR who will benefit. Roddy White, Julio Jones and Harry Douglas were all very active. Now, I can't go out and bump Douglas up a ton, but I do have to wonder about the White/Jones split.
• On the plus side, Michael Turner should play all 16 games this year. On the negative side, he won't be good for as many yards and TDs.
• Tony Gonzalez is probably now the 4th option in the passing game.
• Luckily for Hines Ward, he's at least only the 3rd option, behind Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown (4 for 137, 2 TDs). 45th option? Heath Miller.
  

SD @ ARI

• I think I see how the Cardinals' O will operate: lull the opposition to sleep with Bean Wells rushes and passes to guys you've never heard of and then BOOM! Hit Larry Fitzgerald for a big play.
• I'll give Beanie Wells credit: since becoming the feature back by default, he's run with purpose.
• Yes, Ryan Matthews put up some decent numbers, including a nice scamper, but Mike Tolbert was the one catching passes and taking reps in the red zone.
• Similar to the Falcons, the Chargers gameplan seems to be "target anyone and everyone". Phillip Rivers was firing on all cyclinders and I don't think he discriminates much, if at all, between Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd.
  

STL @ KC

• Another week, another sucky game from Matt Cassel. I need to rethink my Dwayne Bowe ranking.
• Jamaal Charles would've had a TD if the Chiefs hadn't held on his run. What? You mean to tell me a Chief O-lineman thought he needed to hold on a Charles run? You know who I blame this on? Todd Haley.
• You know who did have a TD? Lance Kendricks.

CAR @ CIN

• I forgot to mention it when talking about my first draft of the year, but Steve Smith went undrafted. Cam Newton has already done the unthinkable: he's made the Bengals look competent.
• Also complicit in that was the Panthers D. And, now that I think about it, this is not the first week they've looked bad. Whatever changes Ron Rivera has brought don't seem to be working. This may be a case of "start whomever is playing the Panthers".
• I don't know why CIN is so loyal to Cedric Benson. Bernard Scott is infinitely better.

Draft #1: Blame it on the Rain.

With the thought of power outtages and flooded basements weighing on my mind, I had my first draft on Saturday afternoon (for my #2 league, which is 8 teams, PPR, 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, RB/WR, WR/TE, K, D). Here's what I came away with from the #5 slot:

• Ray Rice (5)
• Darren McFadden (12)
• Matt Schaub (21)
• Miles Austin (28)
• Desean Jackson (37)
• Matt Stafford (44)
• Jermichael Finley (53)
• Felix Jones (60)
• Owen Daniels (69)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (76)
• Reggie Bush (85)
• Knowshon Moreno (92)
• Percy Harvin (101)
• Willis McGahee (108)
• NE D (117)
• Dustin Keller (124)
• Lance Kendricks (133)
• Lance Moore (140)
• Nick Folk (149)
• Ricky Williams (156)

NOTES:

• I could've gone with CJ2K instead of Rice, but he hasn't signed a deal yet and I'm not so sure Javon Ringer would get the bulk of the carries in his absence, based on what I saw in their 2nd pre-season game.
• Matt Schaub in the 3rd round was probably a reach, but the run on QBs had already started and since I wanted two good ones, I felt I couldn't afford to delay the process until the 4th round.
• Miles Austin and Desean Jackson aren't my ideal WRs for a PPR league, but I'd like to think my first 2 TE picks will make up for it.
• I learned the hard way that a lot of good RBs have their byes in Week 5; Rice, Felix Jones, Hightower and Reggie Bush come to mind. I just had to grab Felix there b/c of the well-warranted hype, but then I brain-cramped and ended up with Reggie as well. I foolishly thought some lower-ranked backs like Ingram and Tolbert would be there later, but they got scooped up.
• To compensate and give myself a viable Week 5 spot starter, I went with the tag-team of Moreno and McGahee. I figure by then, I'll know who's putting up more points.
• I really wanted Kyle Orton as my QB3, but someone beat me to it.
• Another brain cramp: going for a D as early as I did. I honestly forgot this league features large benches and thought it was closer to the end of the draft.
• My backup WRs are a little iffy, but I'm hoping to swing a trade or use the waiver wire. I should've pounced earlier on Brandon Lloyd, but he went in the 10th. Also, given how low Yahoo had Johnny Knox ranked, I thought he'd be there later, but he went in the 16th. Somehow, the same team scooped these guys up. I wonder if they read my blog?
• Ben Watson went undrafted. Despite my high ranking of him, I went with Keller and Kendricks since Yahoo had them ranked higher. I figure if I need an injury replacement, Watson will be on the waiver wire.

Pre-season Week 2: Four-Pack #4

I'm sorry this is late; my original recording of the MIN-SEA tilt was joined in progress so I missed much of the first quarter. That said, I didn't miss much. Let's get to it!
MIN @ SEA

• The only positive takeaway I have from this game is the play of Adrian Peterson. He ran with power and elusiveness, as like it was the middle of the season. I've heard bad things about MIN's O-line, but I think he can overcome that.
• As far as Seattle runners, Marshawn Lynch is 'just a guy'. Leon Washington moved the ball much better, but he's waiver wire fodder.
• T-Jax was outplayed by Charlie Whitehurst... again. I can't in good conscience draft any SEA pass-catcher.

CAR @ MIA

• True to the conventional wisdom surrounding rookie QBs, Cam Newton favored both Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey. I can't draft Shockey, though; he's too old and has too many miles on him.
• Chad Henne somehow made it work with a dink and dunk offense, targettng Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess almost equally. Gotta give the edge to BMarsh due to his size, especially down in the red zone.
• By now you've already heard that Reggie Bush had a great game. I was prepared to see nothing, however, from rookie Daniel Thomas but I actually thought he was okay. Maybe there's value there.

CHI @ NYG

• I know the G-men have a great D, but I still believe that Matt Forte will get the bulk of his yardage this year through the air. Anyone can break through the walls the CHI 'O line' has put up.
• Word is, Roy Williams is about to lose his job back to Johnny Knox.
• When in doubt, Eli Manning favored Mario Manningham. It seemed that Hakeem Nicks only got the ball by design. That's not a bad thing, assuming they design about 10-12 of those plays in the end zone!
• Brandon Jacobs ran really well. I think his tapdancing days are over.
• No heir apparent to Kevin Boss yet.

OAK @ SF

• This game was brutal. San Fran ran the ball well and I am pretty sure Frank Gore would've done just as well as his backups, but I just can't trust his ability to stay healthy all season.
• It looks like another year where Vernon Davis alternates good weeks with weeks of "2 catches, 8 yards".
• I don't think Alex Smith has grasped Jim Harbaugh's offense yet. Maybe he never will.

Pre-season Week 2: Four-Pack #3

TEN @ STL

• It looks like the Rams went in with a simple game-plan: get Steven Jackson his first touches of the pre-season and see what they've got in Mike Sims-Walker. SJax looked rusty, so hopefully he'll shake it off in the next two weeks, but MSW didn't look like anything special. The announcers kept making excuses for him, blaming some drops on a groin injury. In truth, he was never as good as the hype machine made him out to be. He was good relative to anyone else in Jacksonville, but he wasn't the 2nd coming of Jimmy Smith or even Keenan McCardell.
• With the above mission on his mind, Sam Bradford still managed to have a few checkdowns to Danny Amendola. I really like what I'm seeing there.
• Only one, maybe two, targets for rookie TE Lance Kendricks. I'll continue to monitor this.
• The Titans seemingly had a mission of their own: show Chris Johnson they don't need him. They made it a point to run the ball with everyone and anyone. Matt Hasselbeck didn't throw much before going out with an injury.
• It may be telling that the first pass Chris Ponder made was to hyped TE Jared Cook. This does nothing to discredit the theory that rookie QBs love throwing to their TEs.

SD @ DAL

• Between this game being on national tv and every expert out there hyping Felix Jones, it's looking like I'm going to have to reach for him.
• It's clear Dez Bryant will pick up where he left off last year.
• That said, there are only so many passes to go around. What does this mean for Miles Austin and Jason Witten. Time will tell.
• Phillip Rivers was really in synch with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Oh, wait, Gates didn't play, but his understudy was targetted heavily. By proxy, that's good news for Antonio.
• Ryan Matthews scored his TD the only way he'll ever do so this season: from outside the 20 yard line. Mike Tolbert had a better game.

CIN @ NYJ

• Unlike with the Colts game, I was at least morbidly interested in the Bungles on offense. They didn't disappoint - they were pretty bad. I had to downgrade Cedric Benson because it's clear that Andy Dalton isn't going to keep the offense on the field.
• Mark Sanchez was on a mission to get in synch with Plaxico Burress and it paid dividends.
• That said, I'm really not sure if this is a good thing. Instead of a clear WR1 and WR2, there may be a 1A and 1B situation brewing and you'll never know from week to week who will come out ahead. I'd like to think Plax has the edge due to his height, but he's been out of the game since 2008.
• ps. Dustin Keller had a nice little game, too

PHI @ PIT

• Teams learned last year how to contain Mike Vick, but luckily for the Eagles, not many teams have the personnel to do so. Pittsburgh does, which led to his horrible play.
• In Week 1, Brent Celek had a great game b/c DJax and Jeremy Maclin were out. In Week 2, DJax returned and Celek had an average game. If this trend continues, he'll be invisible once Maclin returns.
• I feel I'm in no man's land with respect to PIT's WR2. Hines Ward is getting up there, but he's not out of the picture yet. I want to rank Antonio Brown higher, but I just can't right now. And still I'm hearing that it's really Emmanuel Sanders that's Hines' heir apparent.
• Ah, what does it matter? Once PIT gets a lead, they'll just run it with Rashard Mendenhall for the rest of the game.

Pre-season Week 2, Four-Pack #2

WAS @ IND

• Let's get this out of the way up front - you cannot pay me enough to watch the Colts on offense with Curtis Painter at QB.
• No, that's not Clinton Portis back in DC. That's rookie Roy Helu wearing his old #26. It looks like Shanny's back to his old tricks as Tim Hightower got some yards and a TD but Helu got the majority of the reps.
• John Beck had a nice little game, but didn't do anything special. I'm still not ranking him, WR2 Jabar Gaffney or TE Fred Davis.

DET @ CLE

• Colt McCoy continues to do a lot with a little. This week he was missing Peyton Hillis and Ben Watson and still managed to throw 3 TDs. He's really excelling at the short passes that are the cornerstone of the West Coast offense.
• Let me reiterate what I just said: PEYTON HILLIS IS ALREADY INJURED! That said, he was back at practice the following day; so was Ben Watson.
• Speaking of Watson, if McCoy targets him the way he targetted his understudy, Evan Moore, Watson will have a great year.
• Also injured again? Jahvid Best, with a concussion. I'm really starting to wonder if he's got enough durability to last 16 games.
• Neither O-line played well. I refuse to believe that the DET and CLE Ds are that darn good.

ATL @ JAX

• Maybe it was by design or maybe the JAX D is better than I thought, but Matt Ryan was really spreading the ball around and it was Harry Douglas who benefitted most. I'm sure Roddy White will be fine and they'll try to take advantage of Julio Jones' speed, but I think they'll all cannibalize each others touches.
• You know who needs his touches cannibalized? Michael Turner. I really think Jason Snelling is the best RB on the roster right now.
• Right now, the only Jaguar I'd consider having on my roster (other than MJD at a deep discount) is, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is WR Mike Thomas in PPR leagues only. He seems to be the first, and many times the only, option on passing downs.

BUF @ DEN

• Just when I started feeling good about Ryan Fitzpatrick, he goes out and throws a stinker.
• Like Mike Thomas, Steve Johnson is the only real WR on the roster, but he deserves to be ranked higher as I believe BUF will be playing from behind a lot and will rack up the garbage time points.
• I'm no longer concerned about Brandon Lloyd. I love how the experts make it seem like John Fox will do nothing but run, run and run some more, but someone has to catch Kyle Orton's passes.
• There's no rhyme or reason as to when Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller get touches. They're basically one player split in two and there's no league I know of that will let you combine their points into a player named CJ Jackson.
• Knowshon Moreno reminds me a lot of Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy and that's not a good thing b/c he's got Willis McGahee breathing down his neck. He's not only stealing red-zone touches, but receptions out of the backfield as well.
• ps. Eddie Royal still sucks.

Pre-season Week 2, Four-Pack #1

Let's try this: there are 16 games and 16 is 4 times 4. Four 4-packs seems to be a happy medium between one post per game and 5-6 per game.

ARI @ GB

• As I watched most of the first half, I started crafting words expressing the "Super Bowl Hangover" that GB was going through, but then something clicked. Aaron Rodgers started hitting Jermichael Finley for some quick gains and then hit a nice pass to Greg Jennings for a TD.
• Donald Driver had a nice little game, too, but I just can't trust him due to his age.
• Missing in action were Jordy Nelson and James Jones. This will continue as long as Driver is around.
• Somehow, Ryan Grant managed to get himself 23 yds on 5 carries.
• Similarly, Beanie Wells got himself 44 yds on 11 carries and now has the starting gig all to himself since Ryan Williams is gone for the season. I guess I have to bump him up a bit, as he's now a clear cut feature back in the "National Football League".
• The one thing that gives me pause with Beanie and everything else surrounding their offense is their O-line. Kevin Kolb was on the run all night.
• Larry Fitzgerald was heavily targetted, but only came away with 1 catch for 15 yards. I know that will improve and there is something to be said for "garbage time production", but I may have to rethink all my Cardinal rankings.
• Missing in action: Todd Heap.

NO @ HOU

• For me, watching Arian Foster is like watching your first-born son finally make it in the big time. I'll probably never have him on a team again without a #1 pick, but I'll always remember 2010 where I plucked him from obscurity in 2 leagues.
• From where I sit, this is the 2nd week in a row where the Saints' O looked out of synch.
• The only sense I can make out of Sean Payton's use of his RBs is that Pierre Thomas gets the relatively meaningless work, Darren Sproles gets the passing downs and Mark Ingram gets the TDs. Guess who I want on my team?
• I wanted to see more from TEs on both sides; neither the Saints' Jimmy Graham nor HOU's Owen Daniels showed me why I should draft them.

KC @ BAL

• Oh, look, there's Jamaal Charles. Oh, wait, nevermind, b/c there's also Le'Ron McClain, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones. Hey, if JC drops to the 4th round, sure, I'll grab him, but other than that...
• The more I hear how I shouldn't draft Dwayne Bowe, the more I think I should go the other way. So far, I think he's having a nice pre-season. Still, I won't overpay.
• I understand pre-season is the time to work on things and he's got a shiny new weapon in Lee Evans, but Joe Flacco only hit 50% of his passes.

NE @ TB

• I could say something trite like "as good as the Bucs looked last week is how bad they looked this week", but in retrospect, they didn't look THAT good last week. I'm wondering if all the hype is going to their heads.
• I didn't notice NE doing anything special on D in terms of blitzes, so it was very troubling that they were in TB's backfield all night. Legarrette Blount had no room to run and Josh Freeman did nothing but run for his life.
• In my PPR leagues, I would never draft Kevin Faulk, but I always ended up plucking him off of waivers during the season. I think I may get ahead of the curve and draft Danny Woodhead this year.
• Maybe they're working on their chemistry during practice, but I don't see a lot of interaction between Tom Brady and Chad Ochocinco. This concerns me; last year, I noticed TO and Carson Palmer work on theirs in-game. I ranked TO, drafted him and reaped the rewards. I don't know what to do about 85 this year, yet.
• The two NE TEs will continue to confound fantasy owners this year.

Sunday Night Open Thread

Feel free to use the comment section to discuss FFB stuff. I'll do my best to answer your questions!

Linkability and Reviewability for Week Ending 8/19

You don't need me to find the 'standard FFB links'; if you're in at least one league, you've got more than enough. But there are other sources out there, some dealing directly with FFB and some indirectly. Those are the ones that have 'linkability'.

• The Big Lead's Jason Lisk on RB Committees: Since I've got a draft coming up where I already know I'm the 11th pick out of 12, this is very pertinent. I'm still hoping a stud RB drops, but I can't bank on it.
• Art of Manliness article on losing with grace: Nobody plans to lose, but every league can only have one champion. How you behave when it's not you will leave a lasting impression on your league-mates. I'll admit I've been fairly neutral when it comes to playoff losses, figuring "when in doubt, don't say anything". But this article is right - a quick "nicely done" email or posting on the league message board is the proper way to go.
• My TE analysis over on AC2LV.com: if you've noticed the rankings on the right changing, this article should help explain why.

Recapping the week on JMP Is Better

• Pre-season thoughts
• Eagles vs. Ravens
• Denver vs. Dallas
• Arizona vs. Oakland
• Seattle vs. San Diego
• Cincinatti vs. Detroit
• Cleveland vs. Green Bay
• Five Pack of Games
• Four Pack of Games
• Draft Day Advice
• Righting the Ship During a Draft Gone Awry
• JMP's Draft HQ

Closing Out Week 1 of Preseason

Since Week 2 starts tonight, I'm getting my Week 1 thoughts in under the proverbial wire. Hey, it's tough doing this when you have kids!

MIA @ ATL

• The lack of OTAs and the shortened training camp meant that Julio Jones will get fed early and often this pre-season. He put on a one man show, leaving Roddy White in the dust. I think Roddy'll be okay, but Julio get a big bump in the rankings.
• In the "Show, don't tell" department, if the Falcons are serious about running a more high-powered O, this game was a good start. I'm feeling really good about Matt Ryan as a value play.
• Hey, anything that keeps Michael Turner fresh all season is A OK with me.
• I started watching this game with low expectations for the Dolphins, but they still managed to disappoint. Maybe the Falcons' D will be really good this year, but Miami's O-line was not in synch. I really wanted to see what Daniel Thomas brought to the table and, in Week 1, the answer was 'not much'.

PIT @ WAS

• We all know the conventional wisdom about Mike Shanahan and running backs, but a lot of that has been due to recent history. Assuming Tim Hightower plays as well as he did in this game, we could see a true feature back from Shanny this year.
• Rex Grossman played okay but I'm hearing rumblings the Shanahans really want John Beck to start. That makes it hard to rank Santana Moss. Still, you can't deny his getting up there in years.
• Mike Wallace is fast. Big Ben still overthrew him. That is all.

IND @ STL

• It's going to take longer than an abbreviated training camp for Sam Bradford to get all the nuances of Josh McDaniels's O, but it looks like we've already seen Danny Amendola become the new Eddie Royal (from the year he was good) and Lance Kendricks become the new...ummm... Tony Scheffler? The point I'm trying to make is, they both look like safety valves to me and I'm not the one with hungry defenders coming at me. So I can only imagine what they look like to Bradford.

NYG @ CAR

• Based on targets, I think Hakeem Nicks will be picking up where that traitor, Steve Smith, left off. Mario Manningham only had one target from where I sat. Still, if they move him to the slot...
• Since Deangelo Williams re-signed in CAR, we're back to, basically, a 50/50 split between him and Jonathan Stewart. As such, neither is to be trusted.
  
• They're already working in shiny new TE, Greg Olsen. I think there's value here.

Draft HQ

I was supposed to have a draft this past Sunday, but it got postponed. Still, I wanted to share what my HQ or 'war room' looks like for drafts. I used to do my drafts upstairs in the office (except for the one time I did it from an Internet cafe in Vegas, but that's another story), but ever since we got the laptop, I do them in our kitchen. There's plenty of light, food and drink are within reach and there's a powder room nearby.

You may also notice the presence of some archaic information tracking instruments called 'pieces of paper'. I gave up on ranking my players within each of my leagues b/c it got too cumbersome. Once I started writing the blog in 2007, it was easy to just drag my mouse through my rankings, drop the text into MS Notepad, format and print.

It also allows me to quickly see across all 4 major positions without having to click anywhere with a mouse.

Finally, it allows me to also have the website's default rankings available, which is handy when I know I'm in a league with people who don't rank. I was able to hold off on drafting Arian Foster last July by just waiting for him to get close to the top of available running backs.

This system works for me, but I'm interested to hear how you handle YOUR drafts. Make with the comments, people! It's getting lonely in here! :)

TB @ KC, SF @ NO, BUF @ CHI, MIN @ TEN, NYJ @ HOU

Let's try a slightly different format. I'm not posting much on each game, but they're taking up a lot of real estate b/c of the overhead that goes with a post.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

• I didn't really see much from Josh Freeman as a passer, but he ran in a TD.
• Legarrette Blount looked great running between the tackles and also caught a pass. In a division with high-powered New Orleans and Atlanta, the Bucs will need a power running game to keep their D off the field.
• AAAANNNNNDDDD there's Thomas Jones getting some carries that should be going to Jamal Charles, whom I don't think even played.

49ers vs. Saints

• Were the Saints being very aggressive on D or does the Niners' O-line just stink? Probably a little from Column A, a little from Column B. It gives me pause about anything surrounding the Niners' passing game and I don't know if I can now trust Frank Gore to carry this team for 16 games.
• Mark Ingram had a good YPC average and scored a TD, but I was disheartened to see Pierre Thomas get any playing time. Clearly, Sean Payton plans to thumb his nose at FFB players.
• Saints TE Jimmy Graham was targetted a couple of times but didn't register a catch. I'll keep this in mind in the weeks ahead.

Bills vs. Bears

• I want to like Fred Jackson, I really do. And he looked good, to boot. But then he gave way to CJ Spiller and that hurts both their values.
• Besides Stevie Johnson, I have no idea who's catching passes for the Bills, but it seems every time Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a ball, a Bill made the catch. I feel confident in my ranking of him, thus far.
• That Bears O-line is worse than I had heard and is a big negative on Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

Vikings vs. Titans

• MIN's O-line graded poorly in www.rotoworld.com's rankings and it showed in this game. AP had nowhere to run and Donovan McNabb didn't have a lot of time. Bernard Berrian underwhelmed and I hereby declare him 'unrankable'.
• Who needs Chris Johnson? Javon Ringer looked just fine. I wouldn't immediately put him into CJ2K's spot in the rankings, but he'd be up there.
• There's a lot of blog buzz about TEN TE Jared Cook and he had some nice grabs in this game. But he's got no track record. I'll keep watching and rank him when I've seen more.

Jets vs. Texans

• Shonn Green is ready to be 'the man'. 'nuff said.
• Santonio Holmes looks to be the first option on any passing play. Could make him an interesting PPR point machine.
• I would've liked to have seen Owen Daniels do a bit more, especially with Andre Johnson out. Maybe Matt Schaub has moved on? I'll keep an eye on this.

Quick Thoughts on CLE-GB Pre-season Game

• The blogosphere was buzzing about Colt McCoy's performance, but I wanted to see it for myself. I thought he did a pretty good job, but I just don't know who else will catch his passes besides Peyton Hillis and Ben Watson. Joshua Cribbs? Another situation that warrants watching.
• I wanted to see a little more than one series from Ryan Grant. As it is, he'll lose goal line carries and, apparently, 3rd down duties to John Kuhn. I think a downgrade is in order.
• My TE man-crush, Jermichael Finley, didn't play, but if he's targetted the way his backup, Andrew Quarless, was, he'll be more than okay.

Quick Thoughts on CIN-DET Pre-season Game

• Forget about Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. I know they're great. So it was nice to see Nate Burleson get involved.
• Cedric Benson may do okay yardage-wise by grinding games out, but that's bad news for his fantasy stats. He doesn't catch the ball and rookie QB Andy Dalton will cause a lot of drives to stall.
• As Dalton goes, so do rookie WR AJ Green, 2nd year WR Jerome Simpson and 2nd year TE Jermaine Gresham. Forget about the WRs. I'm more interested in watching Gresham the rest of this pre-season.

Quick Thoughts on SEA-SD Pre-season Game

• SEA is definitely going with a RB committee involving Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington. It's nice to see Leon is still in the league. I may have to consider ranking him, especially in PPR leagues where return yardage also counts.
• One of three things is true: SEA's O line stinks, SD's D is going to have a lot of sacks this year or it's just the first pre-season game and both situations will change over time.
• Ryan Matthews is giving way to Mike Tolbert both on third downs AND near the goal line. Tolbert's the guy to own.

Quick Thoughts On the ARI-OAK Pre-Season Game

• Kevin Kolb didn't show me a lot, but did connect with Larry Fitzgerald on a nice long pass. I'm hoping this is just a matter of Kolb having limited practice time due to the lockout. He only targetted and connected with Todd Heap, as well.
• Beanie Wells did nothing against OAK's first string D and then did a little better against the JV, until they got to the goal line. At that point, he got stuffed.
• On the OAK side of the ball, Darren McFadden was out, which was a shame b/c I really want to try and get a sense if he'll live up to the off-season hype. Jason Campbell didn't show me much, but he doesn't have much to work with.

Quick Thoughts on DEN-DAL Pre-Season Game

• I had been reading some good things about what Felix Jones could do this year, but my rule is: "Show, don't tell." Well, Felix showed me something in this game. He warrants further examination.
• On the flip side, I've been reading about how DEN's Brandon Lloyd simply cannot continue the momentum he built last year. Well, all I know is he was targetted twice down near the goal line.
• Regarding DEN's running game, Knowshon Moreno looked okay and caught a pass, but did give way to Willis McGahee for a couple of plays. I'm not sure if Coach Fox sees these two as the AFC West version of D-Will and J-Stew. I'll need to keep watching this as pre-season continues.

Quick Thoughts on the Eagles/Ravens Tilt

I don't put a lot of stock in what I see in the first week of pre-season, but I do keep things in the back of my mind to see if they continue. Here's what I'll be looking with regard to these two teams going forward:

• PHI's D-line clearly won the battle with BAL's O-line. Joe Flacco didn't have a lot of time to throw and, save for a couple of nifty moves, Ray Rice didn't have a lot of room to run. It's almost as if Juan "in a million chance he'll be a good D-coord" Castillo was overcompensating for the fact that, as last year's O-line coach, he's way out of his element. Still, I'll be watching BAL's O-line like a hawk. I saw bad things about DAL's last year and thus wasn't too surprised when Tony Romo went down.
• It takes not having D-Jax AND Jeremy Maclin for Mike Vick to remember that Brent Celek exists. That said, I guess I have to add Celek to my rankings... at the bottom. Have you noticed I hold grudges?

Fantasy Coupons

One of the things that I probably haven't gotten across is that my rankings aren't how I think the players will finish the year in terms of fantasy points. It's based on the point at which I'd have no qualms highlighting his name and hitting the 'Draft' button. I use Blogger's list feature to accomplish this. I type a player's name in, hit 'Add' and then shuffle him down until I can say to myself "I'd rather take a chance on him than the guy below him."

For example, I've got Cam Newton ranked such that if I've got most of my roster filled out, including a backup QB, I'll take a flier on him in a later round. The upside of his value justifies drafting him at that point.

This is akin to going to the store with coupons and getting your favorite name-brand products for less. You get early round production for the cost of a late round pick. As such, here's my first stab at laying out what coupons I'll be looking for in my drafts:

QBs

• Ryan Fitzpatrick in the later middle rounds: He had a nice multi-week run last year where he put up some pretty good numbers running Chan Gailey's spread shotgun offense. This year, the Bills will be playing from behind once again and CJ Spiller will have another year under his belt (Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson can catch the ball, too). Hey, checkdown passes to him that go to 'the house' count! Unlike some of the other QBs ranked around him, he's in a fairly stable situation with his coaches. Familiarity breeds success, especially this year.
• Cam Newton towards the end of the draft: see above.
• Donovan McNabb towards the end of the draft: AP will keep 9 in the box and if Percy Harvin doesn't have migraine issues, he'll be a great WR. Donovan finally learned that TEs are allowed to catch last year in WAS, so Schianco will help him out. Home games will be in a dome, plus one away game in DET.

RBs

• Jamaal Charles in the early middle rounds: yeah, it'll probably never happen, but I'm low on all Chiefs now that Todd Haley is back in charge of the O and they've brougt in Le'Ron McClain. I've seen stranger things happen, though. Leading into Michael Turner's first year in ATL, he slipped to an early middle round where someone else scooped him up, which totally made up for the fact he took Larry Fitzgerald with the 6th overall pick. He went on to win the league.
• Ryan Grant, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson or Mark Ingram in the middle rounds: All but SJax are 'keep the lead' backs for what should be high-scoring team. SJax, while an injury risk, plays in a dome in the Mild Mild West and doesn't come off the field on 3rd down.
• Felix Jones in the later rounds: I'm hoping people basically just forget about him, because I won't. No, he probably won't be the goal-line back, or even the 'keep the lead' back, but he'll get enough touches to make a 10th round pick worthwhile. Tashard Choice may be on his way out.
• Mike Tolbert in the later rounds: I'm hearing Ryan Matthews isn't in great shape, which I'm hoping leads to more touches for the human bowling ball that is Mike Tolbert.

TEs

• Owen Daniels in the early middle rounds: really came on at the end of last year, proving he's healthy.
• Jimmy Graham in the later rounds: another guy I'm hoping people forget about. I have a hunch he'll be getting some red zone looks that used to go to Marques Colston.
• Todd Heap in the later rounds: I'm hoping people remember him as the injury-prone TE from Baltimore and not see him as a TE whose QB is Kevin Kolb.

I've Got Some 'Splainin' To Do

(I Love Lucy reference, for you youngins)

Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed I've been tweaking my rankings these past few days. While I don't remember every single move, here are some of my thoughts regarding upgrades and downgrades:

QBs

• David Garrard gets downgraded because I realized he's David freakin' Garrard. He has no one to throw to and the RB situation is uncertain.

RBs

• Ray Rice gets downgraded a bit b/c the Ravens brought in Ricky Williams to do what Willis McGahee did last year. I don't think this will impact Ray much in PPR leagues, but his TD projection is now trending downwards.
• Darren McFadden rises as I finally delved into his 2010 stats and also learned Al Saunders is the new O-coord in Oaktown. I'm still concerned about his durability and if I wasn't a Giants fan living in Eagles' territory, I'd have McCoy ranked ahead of him, but...
• Jamaal Charles takes a big hit b/c KC brought in Le'Ron McClain and I have concerns he'll take over where Thomas Jones left off.
• Felix Jones joins the list now that it's looking like Tashard Choice is getting cut.

WRs

• Devin Hester rises, Johnny Knox falls as Lovie Smith has named Hester his #2 WR. In other news, Lovie Smith still does not know if a football is puffed or stuffed.

Valley Forge Casino: George Washington Could Not Have Gambled Here but You Soon Can!

I've been living in the Valley Forge / King of Prussia area for almost 15 years now and for the past 4 or 5, I've been following intently the progress (or lack thereof) of the casino in the Valley Forge Convention Center.

I've known for some time that this was a "Category 3" license, which means that it's not exactly open to the public and that there were some hoops you had to jump through in order to play.

Well, I've finally heard about the criteria you have to meet. You have to either:

• have a room at the Center's hotel or
• spend at least $25 in their restaurants or stores.

Receipts and/or room keys will be checked.

The VFCC has a steakhouse, Chumley's, and an Italian bistro, Blue Grotto. Neither is heavily reviewed on Yelp, but Blue Grotto currently grades out a bit better.

The casino is set to open in early- to mid-2012. I wish they'd get it open sooner so I could do my birthday dinner there in December, but I'll just have to be patient.

(Source: philly.com's July Casino Chat)

I Guess the Golden Nugget AC Doesn't Want Their $65 Back

I got my first and what may be my only mailer from them. No free play or food, unless I get a room Sun-Thurs starting 9/1 for $49 and then I get $60 in credits ($15 food, $10 gaming, $30 in fitness club passes and $5 for parking). This is probably the same deal that anyone can get in this timeframe.

Of course this makes perfect sense. They gave me $100 free play and that is exactly how much play I gave them. For $100 'coin in', I wouldn't give me anything more.

Curious to see what I'll get from the Borgata.

Linkability 8/6/11

These links have 'linkability'. Okay, by definition, all links have this, but these are also worth checking out:

• The Big Lead's Jason Lisk On Win Total Over/Under: TBL resident-braniac Jason Lisk goes through all the O/U prop bets out there and picks each. This is part 3 of 3 and the article links to the other parts. I like things like this not just for the article itself, but for the comments. I learn a lot of things about other NFL teams from those team's fans.
• Fantasyguru.com article on mispricing: A long, but ultimately rewarding, article about finding great values in your FFB draft. I'm all about value.
• AC2LV's Are You Ready for Some Football?: AC2LV contributor DenverGambler breaks down some NFL prop bets and even throws in a pick (against the spread, no less!) for Week 1.
• AC2LV's Time for Fantasy Football: some guy with my initials wrote some words explaining my QB rankings. He did a good job, too!

So You Had (Or Are Having) A Bad Draft...

I don't know when "draft season" officially starts, but August 1st seems just as good a date as any. I've got my first draft coming up two weeks from Sunday and I'm getting excited. I think my rankings are solidifying over there on the right and many FFB articles are flying around the blogosphere.

In all the "draft advice" columns I've seen, though, I've never seen one that helps you recover from a bad draft.

Hey, things happen. To paraphrase what Michael Strahan had to say after Super Bowl 42, everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth. The best set of rankings in the world don't amount to much once you're in that draft room with actual people, some of whom don't conform to the wisdom you've been reading in those other articles for months. How would you react if the TE run starts in the middle of Round 2 and you jump on board, even though you had grand plans of going RB-RB-WR-QB? I had this very thing happen to me last year and I still managed to take 3rd, so I hope you can benefit from my experience.

Here's what happened: with the fourth pick in a 12 team draft where only TEs get a PPR (and you can flex one as well), I reached for Jermichael Finley with the 21st overall pick. Panicked that all the top tier QBs were then off the board, I reached for Joe Flacco in the 3rd round, and then had to settle for Malcolm Floyd as my #1 WR in the fifth. Sandwiched in there was Arian Foster in the 4th; go me!

After the Floyd pick, I knew I was headed down a bad road. I may have had two great RBs and a TE, but my QB and WR corp weren't looking so hot. I had a lot of time to kill between my 5th and 6th picks, so I calmed myself down and figured out my strategy: I'd have to play the QB and WR matchups every week and for that I needed bodies. Lots of bodies. I also needed to, at some point, take a non-WR to use as trade bait.

My next two picks were Dwayne Bowe and Terrel Owens. Okay, now I had 3 decent names to pick 2 from each week.

In Round 8, I saw Matt Forte was still on the board. I didn't LOVE him based on his performance in '09, but hey, Mike Martz was taking over the O and it was the eighth round. I had two great RBs, but maybe someone would want him.

In Round 9, I took Jerome Harrison b/c Monterio Hardesty had gone down and the conventional wisdom was he'd start ahead of Peyton Hillis.

Round 10: Jabar Gaffney b/c I saw in the pre-season he had a good repoire with Kyle Orton. I figured he'd be another body to add to my WR pool.

Round 11: Broncos Team QB b/c I saw Orton had a good repoire with Gaffney and Brandon Lloyd and, hey, maybe that Tim Tebow guy would run in some TDs.

As you can see, once I went into "bodies mode", I made some really good, albeit lucky, decisions. Bowe and TO started many games for me and I flipped Forte for Calvin Johnson after week 1; this solidified my WR1 slot and gave me only 1, rather than 2, choice to make each week. Orton/Tebow started most weeks over Flacco and the rest, as they say, is history.

The important thing was I didn't panic. But even if I continued to draft poorly, I still would've had a shot by working the waiver wire.

And that's probably the most important lesson I can impart: these mistakes are fixable. So if you find yourself in this position, let the panic wash over you (maybe down an alcoholic beverage between picks), regroup, replan and position yourself to win!

Sunday Drive

• Plaxico Burress to NYJ: Another weapon for Mark Sanchez, albeit one who's been out of the game for a few years, unless they had a team in prison. Not sure what to make of this yet, other than NYJ pre-season games become 'must see TV'.
• Mike Sims-Walker to STL: Good, tall WR who's battled injuries his entire career. Goes to a team with a second-year QB, Sam Bradford, and they'll both have to come up to speed VERY quickly on Josh McDaniel's offense without the benefit of OTAs and such. This will be an interesting situation to watch throughout the pre-season.
• Todd Heap to ARI: Todd's getting up there in years but he'll be far from the primary option, especially if the Cards get Braylon Edwards. Kevin Kolb loves throwing to TEs and his injury last year submarined what should've been Brett Celek's breakout year. Let's stay in the desert and talk about...
• Tim Hightower to WAS: this forces me to rank Beanie Wells as a first- and second-down back in "The National Football League" (tm Jaws). As you can see by where he ranks, I don't think much of his ability. In fact, the 'zona RB I've ranked ahead of him, Ryan Williams, will be the pass-catching RB. I think Beanie will put him in a good position to succeed, what with his '2 yards and a cloud of dust' ability.
• James Jones back to GB: He of the inconsistent hands has submarined Jordy Nelson's potential for yet another season. Neither looks appealing now.
  

More Floodgate Fallout

• Chad Ochocinco to NE: I LOVE this deal. Chad vaults way up my draft board. I don't think he'll be as good as Randy Moss was in his first year catching passes from Tom Brady, but I think it'll be in the same ballpark. Now if I can just figure out who starts at RB for them. I've got BenJarvis Green-Ellis ranked as if he'll be the one.
• Kevin Kolb to ARI: I like this deal, but not as much as I love the prior one. I had Larry Fitzgerald ranked as if ARI would get someone good, so he's not moving. My one concern is Kevin will have little time to learn a new playbook.
• Greg Olsen to CAR: Assuming Cam Newton follows the rule of thumb involving young QBs and TEs, Olsen should be okay.
• Lance Moore re-ups in NO: I like him in PPR leagues now that Reggie Bush is a Dolphin.
• Reggie Bush to MIA: this will sound like a cop out but I really don't know what to make of this yet. MIA's been moving away from the Wildcat and will most likely land Kyle Orton. I guess he gets a bump in leagues where return yardage/TDs count. I'll get back to y'all on this.

The Floodgates! They are Open!

Here are my knee-jerk (emphasis on 'jerk') reactions to some/most of the moves that have happened:

• McNabb to MIN: I really didn't think the Vikes would go into the season with Ponder as their starter. I thought they'd either get Kolb or get Favre to come back. Still, I think it'll be enough to keep opposing D's honest and they do play the AFC West this year. I'll reinsert Schianco towards but not at the bottom of the TE rankings, mainly b/c I don't recall McNabb utilizing his TEs all that much in Philly but it looks like Cooley was serviceable in PPR leagues last year. AP stays where he's at, though, b/c I still like Arian better and the Vikes lost a playmaker...
• Sidney Rice to SEA: this hurts everyone in terms of fantasy points, although I guess it's a win for Sidney's wallet. He could've been catching passes from DMac (come on, not ALL of them would've ended up at his feet) but will now probably end up trying to catch them from Tavaris Jackson. Meanwhile, back at the ranch that is the Metrodome, Percy Harvin rises.
• Matt Hasselbeck to TEN: he takes over the 'caretaker' role that Kerry Collins filled relatively well lately. CJ2K doesn't take a hit.
• Deangelo Williams stays in CAR: bad for him, bad for J-Stew, and MAYBE good for Knoshown Moreno in DEN b/c DWill, when healthy, would've torn up the AFC West.
• Steve Breaston to KC: maybe this will keep some of the heat off of Dwayne Bowe, but I still don't trust Haley.

WRs and Their Multiple Points of Failure

Now that the NFL is offically back (was there really any doubt?), players will be moving faster than ever before. Before that happens and I shift into analyzing specific moves, I have a few more general things to talk about.

One of them is why I'll never take a WR in the first round and probably not the second round ever again. Heading into the 2004 draft season (my 2nd year of playing FFB), a lot of the 'experts' started declaring that if you were picking towards the end of the first round, you HAD to take an elite WR. Their reasoning? You'll get more points from the elite WR than you would from the 'second tier' RB that's also available.

As such, I took Randy Moss. And a few weeks later, he was gone for the season.

At that point, I really began noticing all the things that can cause an elite WR to fail. Considering the Death Star was brought down TWICE by a single point of failure, I have zero desire to waste a first round pick on a player with more than one:

1. Poor weather. I remember last year I just needed maybe 4 more points from Malcolm Floyd in Week 1, but wind and rain prevented him from just catching that one more pass that would've given me a win. Luckily this is mitigated by things like gloves and domes.
2. Shutdown corners. This isn't as big a deal as it used to be since the rules changed, but there are still a few shutdown corners out there.
3. The flow of the game. Generally speaking, they don't get the ball when their team is up big and, conversely, if their team is down, they'll probably be double-covered. Again, this isn't as big a deal as it used to be as running to kill the clock is becoming a lost art, but it's something I've noticed.
4. Injuries. What? All football players get hurt? Okay, how's this: they get hurt and have lousy backups. By the time the #1 WR for a team gets hurt, the team's #2 and maybe even the #3 are already gone.
5. Just about everything else with the play has to go right. The O-line has to block long enough. The QB has to throw a good pass. The WR, himself, has to get open. This opens you up to a real-life case of the butterfly effect.
   
   Throw in an injury on the O-line or, heaven forbid, the QB and you've got a recipe for severely reduced production, at least for that game. By contrast, even a '2nd tier' RB can overcome an in-game change along the O-line and, as long as the backup QB can keep opposing defenses honest, won't be affected too much by a change there.

The constant advocating for taking a WR in the first round was my first clue that the experts weren't all they were cracked up to be, but it wasn't my last. I was still 3 years away from severely discounting what those guys had to say, coming up with my own rules and then, duh, winning (consistently).

Don't wait as long as I did. Your FFB teams are just that - YOURS. Make your own decisions and, win or lose, you'll be a lot happier. I know I am.

Tweaking pass-catcher rankings

Astute observers may have noticed I've been working on the WR and TE rankings a bit this week.

I probably obsess the most over TE rankings. In my main league, only TEs get a PPR and you can use one in your flex spot as well; many $ winners have gone with 2 TE lineups (I stick with 2 RBs b/c I rarely get one good TE let alone 2). In my 2nd most important league, we added a WR/TE flex last year and I really try to start 2 there.

My main concern with most TEs is injuries. Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates all missed a lot of time last year. Former greats like Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are getting older. When in doubt, then, go with youth, so Finley gets bumped to the top spot. Clark comes in 2nd mainly b/c if you handcuff Jacob Tamme to him, you won't miss a beat.

My WR rankings are starting to crystalize, at least as far down as Jordy Nelson. I expect no dropoff with Roddy White this year (fyi I had him my #3 WR heading into the '10 season and drafted him in the 4th round), while, on the other hand, I think Todd Haley re-assuming the O-coord role in KC will negatively impact the entire O including Dwayne Bowe. I like Miles Austin to rebound with Tony Romo coming back and I think Greg Jennings will be okay but not great as long as Jermichael is healthy. Once the lockout ends and players begin to move around, I should have a better feel for how the remaining WRs will do.

Stay tuned!

Trip Report: Golden Nugget and the Borgata

I’d like to say I planned it this way from the very start – that I never set foot in Trump Marina because I knew someday they’d sell the place to Golden Nugget, which would do a promotion where new sign-ups could earn as much as $1000 in free slot play.

I’d like to say it, but I can’t. Simply put, I had zero desire to set a single small toe inside the Trump Marina. First, it was in the Marina and if I’m going to the Marina, I’m going to the Borgata. Second of all, the property did (and still does) look like a brown parking garage (one that now says ‘Rump Arina’ with an inverted golden triangle/waterfall on the main tower). And finally, as far as I can remember, they never had any promotions (either when they had their own card or when they introduced ‘Trump One’) for which I’d get off the jitney.

So when the slot club attendant called me over to his terminal so I could sign up for a card and asked me if I’d ever been there before “even when we were Trump”, I could truthfully say, “No”. I then proceeded to push a button that spun 3 reels on a slot machine behind him and couldn’t believe my eyes when “$100” appeared on all 3 on the center line!

At that point my gambling strategy changed considerably. Had I only won $5, I would’ve found a penny slot where I didn’t have to play too many lines at once and seen if I could quickly reach a bonus round. With $100, though, I figured Jacks or Better (even 8/5) was in order, mainly for ‘bankroll preservation’.

It took me longer than expected to find an 8/5 machine, which was odd b/c there isn’t much to the casino floor. GN hasn’t owned the property that long and there’s a definite ‘work in progress’ feel to the place, although to be fair I can only comment on what I saw between the parking garage and the casino floor – a couple of ‘temporary bars’ and some shops near the garage. The casino floor is ‘shotgun style’, meaning just a straight line of gambling opportunities (pit in the middle, machines surrounding the pit). I have to wonder if they’ve removed machines to save money just like some CZR properties have done.

I decided to put all my free play on one machine; I didn’t feel like having to fiddle with the keypad every so often. I played for a little bit and hit nothing of note, except for getting dealt four to a royal in spades and not getting the queen on the draw. Eventually I cashed ‘my’ money out and had about $40 of my own and about another $40 to go. So I played for what I thought was the same length of time, cashed out and still had free play to go. Lather, rinse, repeat a few more times and I finally used up all my free play. I put all the TITOs back in, saw I had $66.25, played one hand so a loss would bring me down to a nice, round number and it did, so I cashed out with $65. I should mention that in all this time (about 30 minutes), I never saw a cocktail waitress.

After paying my $5 for parking (on a Tuesday night? Boo!) and getting a transfer, I headed over to where I really wanted to go: the Borgata. I made my way through the crowds to the B Bar and found the one free machine on the quarter side. I soon realized why it was free: while all the machines got a good cleaning earlier in the day, someone must’ve already spilled a drink all over mine b/c the buttons, the touch screen AND the slot club keypad had very poor responsiveness. In retrospect, I should’ve just played enough hands to turn my $10 in free slot play into cash and then gone out onto the floor, but I wanted a soda and ended up burning through all of it plus my winnings (I got the machine to just above $20) before leaving. I put a $20 of my own in a machine outside the bar and played for a decent amount of time, hitting nothing of note. Somewhere in all this I ended up with 4 to a royal, again in spades. Finally, I saw it was 11:30 and since I had a 30 minute drive back to OC ahead of me, I cashed out when I got down to $10, leaving me with a total profit of $55. I think I said it last year, but it bears repeating: if you’re travelling between AC and OC after, oh, say, 10, take the Expressway and the Parkway. Any time before that and the local roads are just fine. Either way it’ll take about 30 minutes.

Just remember to bring coins for the tollbooths, which are unmanned at night. I through ten dimes in the basket and still didn’t get a green light so I blew my horn and continued on. If I get a ticket in the mail, well, at least I made some money!

In the beginning...

was 'Common Cent$ Fantasy Football' and it wasn't bad (if I do say so myself). I started that blog in 2007 to provide a counterpoint to the alleged 'fantasy football experts' who were more interested in keeping their jobs than in giving reliable advice. I even managed to keep the blog active up to around the traditional 'trading deadline' in November, but after that, I ran out of steam. I mean, how many different ways can you say "this guy is stupid, do the opposite?".

Combine that with what I perceived as 'lackluster' readership and I didn't see the point in resuming the blog leading into the 2008 season. And besides, at that point, I had a one year old girl and an increasingly pregnant wife (daughter #2 was born the day the Eagles lost their 99th NFC title game; a true 'win-win' for this Giants fan!). I had time to PLAY fantasy football, but no time to write about it.

By 2009, however, I found myself with an opportunity to just worry about content without the 'red tape' of actual 'blog maintenance'. I had recently partnered with www.eastcoastgambler.net (now www.ac2lv.com) to provide my thoughts on Pennsylvania's burgeoning casino industry and thought he could also use some FFB content. I provided pre-season position rankings and in-season "pick 'em" picks that year as well as in 2010.

But, to paraphrase Bill Simmons paraphrasing Jimmy Chitwood, it's time to start writing a blog again. I'll still be providing content for his site, but I'd like to increase my output just a wee bit and try some new things (like live blogging and open threads) that I wouldn't be able to do over there.

In the meantime, take a spin around the archives (located WAAAAAY the heck down at the bottom) to see how this all started. Check out the Stats page which, I believe, clearly explains my bona fides in writing a blog like this. Read the Principles I try to follow to ensure success. And, maybe most importantly, keep an eye on the position rankings over on the right, as I'll be changing them with increasing frequency as the 2011 season gets closer (especially the WRs; I'm fully aware that list needs a LOT of work).

Until next time!