Trading deadlines approaching

And with them comes the last round of "here's how to trade" articles from the 'experts'.

One thing I've failed to mention thus far: what's the logic in recommending players to trade FOR and then putting it out there so EVERYONE can see it? For example, a Yahoo! article says "Go get Packers!". Okay, well, the guys with Packers have read that, too. Do you think they'll allow themselves to be swindled or even take part in otherwise fair trades? I think not.

My advice: go get good players first and then try to get some depth, team be damned. Remember, big players make big plays in big games and sometimes big players come up small in non-big games.

Please sir, may I have some more (bad advice)?

I WISH I could offer some more kudos today, but there's nothing worthy out there.

Sportsline's 'Sit of the Week' is MoJo Drew. I can partially understand that, since he's facing the Titans. What Eisenberg forgot to mention was that if your league counts kickoff/punt return TDs for individual players, MoJo should be in there just in case.

Then there's this piece of dreck from FoxSports. My favorite parts are:

Talk to the guys at the top of the standings, because they have guys on their bench that are scoring. Don't let them hoard them, make a deal. It's now or never.

and

If you're not talking Larry Johnson or Lee Evans, who are both going to have bust-out second halves, everybody should be available. Look for solid 2-for-1 trade deals. Now is the time for consistency. You have to fill four stat boxes a week with double digits to have chance at winning.

First of all, the top teams have guys on their bench who can score because they picked their team well and value the depth. So you're NOT going to trade your one measely stud for 2 of the other team's bench players. Second of all, I've found it VERY hard to pull off 2-for-1 deals, but maybe that's just the leagues I've been in. What do you all think? Thirdly, this article was written AFTER LJ's recent health woes. How does this guy justify saying that he'll 'bust-out' in the 2nd half? He'll probably just be a bust.

Your best bet is what the writer mentions last: use the waiver wire. You're a low ranked team; use it to your advantage and claim ANYONE you think may help.

Really, at this point, you're just playing for pride. You need to cut your losses and focus efforts on your other teams that are doing better. Just make sure your lineup is legal every week (preferably containing viable players). It's common courtesy!!!! :)

The smell of fall is in the air...

And so is the smell of desperation coming from the 'experts'. Specifically, I'm talking about all of them desperate to find the next hot RB to recommend be plucked from the waiver wire. I'm hearing names like Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne (who's ON A BYE THIS WEEK), that other guy in Houston who has a very long name (and is also on a bye), Priest Holmes, Priest Holmes' backup (or is Holmes the backup there? Very confusing) and... Michael Pittman.

My favorite quote was actually a Pittman quote, 'cleverly' disguised as a Kevin Faulk quote, from Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks: "Kevin Faulk - A poor man’s Michael Pittman. You know what you are going to get and can always hope for a Maroney injury." If you scan down to the comments, you'll see that this humble blogger attempted to show Gregg the error of his ways :).

In other 'around the web' news, I think the reason I haven't actually... you know... been 'going around the web' is that all the 'experts' have fallen into their routines, which I identified over a month ago. You've got the guys who upgrade players who had one good week (and vice versa), the guys who want to be Deadspin commenters and then the rest who actually make decent points.

So, let's try something different. Let's recognize any attempt by these guys to 'break form'. Here we go...

East Coast Offense checks in with this item that parrots what I've been saying since day 1:

(Regarding Adrian Peterson) But it also made everyone who drafted or traded for Peterson this year feel like geniuses. (I feel like an idiot because I traded Peterson and Kevin Jones for LaDainian Tomlinson and Calvin Johnson in a league two weeks ago). A good rule of thumb is that when something amazing happens, more people feel like idiots than geniuses, and rightly so, because idiots will always outnumber geniuses.

Actually, he's only ALMOST got it right; the truth is you'll only FEEL like an idiot if you put yourself in a position to LOOK LIKE one. The solution is simple: don't make idiotic trades (and when in doubt, don't trade at all!). Sure, you may spend a Sunday or three muttering under your breath about 'the deal you should have made', but no one else knows it was possible (even the guy on the other end has most likely moved on). If you lose and don't make any idiotic trades, chances are you'll appear unlucky (unless you also drafted idioticly). But if you DID make those trades, you WILL appear like an idiot. I guess the worst case is first you drafted badly and then you make bad trades. In this case, you may want to pick a new hobby. Okay, I'm rambling... time for more kudos.

Bringin' the Noise has a decent treatise on why drafting a bunch of QBs in 2008 may not be the best idea. Here's a hint: there are still a bunch of good RBs that won't be in committees next year and you'll probably start at least 2 RBs (but 1 QB)in most of your leagues. Good job, Noise-guy!

Fantasy vs. Reality

Fantasy: Andy Reid will be able to put his family situation out of his mind and successfully coach the Eagles.

Reality: The Eagles, especially McNabb, will not be successful until they force Reid out the door and hand the keys to any other coach in the organization (except, maybe Marty Morhinweg).

I went into the Sunday night game down by about 30 (opponent had Peterson and Moss). All I really needed was my McNabb to cancel out his Romo (either by McNabb playing well or by the Eagles D limiting Romo) and Westbrook to get about 20 (I have Mason and Stover tonight and figure they'll get me 10). Well, only Westbrook held up his end of the deal and he needed garbage time to do that.

I seriously need to think about using Jeff Garcia once the playoffs start. Any thoughts from you two readers? :)

We interrupt our regularly scheduled programming...

I'll take a bit of a break from my "How'm I doin'?" mid-season retrospective to bring up this latest bit of idiocy from Yahoo's Noise-maker, Brad Evans:

He's got "Kenny Watson / Rudi Johnson" listed as a "Flame"! BOTH OF THEM! "If both are active, each is worthy of a flex start in 12-team leagues, but anticipate a near 50-50 split in carries." So if you own both, you should start both? That sounds like a major waste of a roster spot, if you ask me.

Meanwhile, in "So it's come to this..." news, a lot of experts are slurping QB Sage Rosenfels (HOU) and MIN's TE, Vincente Shianco as decent bye week replacements. Now, if you drafted Matt Schaub as a bye week replacement, MAYBE you have to give Sage a start. And yes, I don't advocate keeping 2 TEs on the roster, but you HAD to know this day was coming and prepare, right? If so, good luck with Vincente, but a little foresight could've netted you one of the CHI TEs or Owen Daniels.

How'm I doin'? (QBs and WRs)

No errors in judgement with respect to the Top 3: Brady, Manning and Palmer. I'd like to think I was correct with my concern that Brees could fall back down to Earth, as he did for a time. McNabb may have been ranked a bit high, but I think he'll be fine.

If I recall the next 'tier' correctly, it contained guys like Hasselbeck (consistently good and a key member of two of my better teams), Romo (whom I ranked a bit low just in case), Big Ben (performingly nicely in the new offense), Cutler & Kitna (both decent) and... Leinart (oops!).

Next was Vince Young (whom, if 'intangibles' lead to fantasy points, he'd be all-World, but they don't, so he sucks), Eli Manning (decent first half, but he seems to fall apart when the weather gets cold, so the jury's still out), Favre (hey, he looked like crap last year; who knew?) and Grossman (another oops).

Rounding out the pack were guys like McNair (bad), Garcia (much better than advertised) and the usual gang of idiots like Harrington, Leftwich, Schaub and Losman.

All in all, I think I did okay with QBs.

Now, about those WRs.

I don't think anyone could've predicted Randy Moss making the leap up the board that he did. Nor the fall down Harrison and Smith have made. Beyond that, the one guy I'd like to address is Deion Branch (my other man-crush, next to kicker Matt Stover). Before his injury, he was playing up to the level I ranked him (but was always able to draft him in later rounds, creating tremendous value). I'm hoping he returns to form this week.

How'm I doin'? (updated 10/31)

Those of you who grew up in or around NYC while Ed Koch was mayor may recognize the above question :).

I've resisted the urge up until now to really talk about my four teams. However, now that we're halfway through the real regular season and a bit more than halfway through the fantasy season (assuming playoffs start in week 14), I thought I'd share that info with you, as well as how I think I did with some of my pre- and in-season predictions.

My teams are 6-2, 6-2, 5-3 and.... 2-6. The runt of the litter contains such luminaries as Larry Johnson, Steve Smith and Laurence Maroney. To be fair, I would've had another win had I added Sammy Morris before NE's Monday night game a while back and I DID only lose this past week by 3. Still, the playoffs are just about out of the picture and I now need to save my remaining 4 add/drops to help me in the inevitable 'losers bracket'. The 5-3 team would've also been 6-2 had I not benched Willie Parker for Lamont Jordan, but I already apologized to y'all for that.

Now, as for my pre-season RB rankings (in order, as far as I can recall).

LT2 is still the unquestioned #1. SJax, however, is far from 2nd best, but who could've predicted the mess that the Rams have become? Addai at #3 looked a bit shaky for 3 weeks, but I think he'll be fine. Maroney at #4 was a major oops. Things get hazy now (next year, I'll take a screen-capture of my rankings prior to Week 1), but I think Gore was #5. He played like it for a time, but losing Alex Smith hurt and now Gore himself is hurt. Rounding out the top 10, I seem to recall names like Shaun Alexander (bust), Willie Parker (great, but only 2 TDs), Brian Westbrook (outstanding), LJ (bust early, stud now) and Travis Henry (high).

In the next 'tier' were Edge (decent and now has an easy schedule), Bush and MoJo (coming on), Brandon Jacobs (only now living up to his hype/potential), Ronnie Brown (stud until a torn ACL), Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones (bust, bustier and bustiest). Remember, though, that this tier should've been drafted behind the first tier of QBs and the first 1 or 2 tiers of WRs. So, in other words, the busts shouldn't have gone early. If they did, their owners are probably hurtin' right now.

Below that were the good surprises, like McGahee (has the yards, albeit not the TDs) and Marshawn Lynch (hey, he looked like utter crap in the pre-season) and the predictable flops like Clinton Portis (due to a timeshare). Also the TBDs like Kevin Jones (whom I still maintain would re-injure himself were I to acquire him) and the good Adrian Peterson (who rocketed up my board faster than anyone else).

Bottom line: I was really REALLY wrong about Maroney, but I would like to think my cautious nature on the rest was accurate. Let's face it, if Gore fell to you at #5 or Alexander at ... wherever I had ranked him, you HAD to take him there due to the risk/reward ratio. It sucks that it didn't work out, but hopefully you got something better coming back the other way in Round 2.

You may want to argue that some of these 'busts' were really the result of injuries, such as Gore and Brown. To that I say "I factored injury concerns into my initial rankings, so there!" :)

Tomorrow I hope to tackle QBs and some WRs.

Sportsline's "Start 'em & Sit 'em" Spits the Bit

Now THIS is the Sportsline I remember - telling you to bench studs and start reserves without compuction. Let's take it from the top.

Sit o' the Week: Lamont Jordan
Jamey got one fact right in that TEN DOES have the #1 run D. What he forgets to mention is that Jordan is also very active in the PASSING game. Furthermore, his assertion that Jordan will lose touches to Dominic Rhodes holds no water, as his very own site is reporting that the Raiders ARE CLOSE TO TRADING OR RELEASING RHODES. Now, I'm not sure what this means for this week. Will Rhodes be showcased or will he ride the pine? What I do know is that Jordan is NOT deserving of "Sit O' the Week".

QB Sleeper: Marc Bulger
OH. MY. GOD. I don't care WHOM the Rams are facing and WHOM they've got back at RB. Bulger is hurt and he's shown us NOTHING all year. Bruce and/or Bennett are banged up at WR, too. I would feel VERY stupid about starting Bulger in the face of all this data. Check out where I've got him ranked; I'd feel safer starting "sit 'ems" like Jeff Garcia and John Kitna over Bulger.

Start 'em: Bernard Berrian
Can't mention him without also pimping Muhsin Muhammad.

Sit 'ems: Darrell Jackson, Jeff King, Vernon Davis & Randy McMichael
Really? They're paying you to tell me this? My 8 month old is smart enough to not even have these lugs on her roster let alone start them.

Sit 'em: Rob Bironas
But only because he won't kick 8 this week. Big friggin' deal. If he kicks 2 and 2 XPs, you're fine.

Mmmmm..... leftovers...

One of the many things I didn't get around to last week was addressing this stink nugget from CBS Sportsline's Michael Hurcomb on what to expect to get back for Braylon Edwards:

Since the change of QBs in Cleveland Week 2, Edwards has 503 receiving yards and seven touchdowns... Possible targets would include an underachieving Rudi Johnson, he is bound to break out; Brandon Jacobs, clearly the best running back in New York; Clinton Portis, a little injury prone but racking up touchdowns; or Frank Gore, another guy that is severely underproducing and would be a good bargain at this stage.

Jacobs, yes. Portis, maybe but probably no. Gore, definitely not. I would look at Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, MoJo Drew, Kevin Jones or even a Marion Barber. Remember, don't make your initial offer too low or the other guy will accept without hesitation. You want to negotiate!

Chat(man) Stew (Sooooo Meaty!)

The above is a reference to that show 'The Soup' on E!. It's one of the few shows my wife and I can agree on (the others being The Office, Lost and Heroes and, until recently, House, which I still like but Megan thinks has jumped the proverbial shark).

Obviously the deluge of expert saliva came about because Ronnie Brown went down, leaving Jesse Chatman as Miami's new starting RB. I'll say this: my 'love' for him is higher than it was for Michael Pittman and Justin Fargas a couple weeks ago. I think he's worth an add, but you'd better hold onto your butts when you start him. Each week, I forsee 3 quarters of nothing followed by a decent 4th quarter once Miami's opponent is comfortably ahead. Still, there's nothing wrong with a little garbage time production.

Bless me, readers, for I have sinned...

For starters, I benched Willie Parker (on the road against DEN Sunday night) in favor of Lamont Jordan. Now, the diff is only 6 points between them, but right now it means I'm down by 17 versus 11 with only Reggie Wayne left to play tonight (and my opponent has Anthony Gonzalez, but it looks like Harrison will play).

UPDATE: Wayne goes for 130+ yds (or 13 points) and no TDs (or zero points) and I lose, going from 5-1 to 5-2 and no longer a lock to make the playoffs. Damn it.

What's more, I learned this morning that I've done a pretty piss poor job of scouring the web and bringing the weird stuff to you guys. The Big Lead 'scooped' me on ESPN's Matthew Berry's latest psycho-babble involving a DJ Hackett man-crush and a prediction of doom for all Steelers. I need to make a point to check this out on a weekly basis.

Then there was Bill Simmons' weekly NFL picks column that also doubled as a 'fantasy guide' of sorts. He tried to show how hard it is to have the perfect fantasy season (because, you see, his Pats are going to have a perfect real season, get it?). Let's leave out the fact that his team is stacked, leading me to believe he's in a 6 team league (check out my thoughts on his his pre-season thoughts here) and dissect his thoughts.

Reason #1: Bye Weeks
Okay, yes, you WILL have a week when your #1 RB is off. And another where your #1 QB is off. And one where you'll have to pick up a TE, K or DEF off the waiver wire cuz you should only draft one. But you know what? THAT'S WHAT THE DRAFT IS FOR! A while back I even put a poll up regarding draft strategy and bye weeks, so it's an issue everyone's aware of and should have a strategy for (damn, did I just end TWO phrases with prepositions???). Now, should you get unlucky on draft day, there are trades, as well as waiver wire pick ups. Oh, wait, those are evil too...

Reason #2: The evil waiver wire
While Bill's points are valid, he fails to see things from the 'bad teams' perspetive. FFB is supposed to be fun and, quite frankly, it isn't when your team blows and you have ZERO chance to salvage your season. Sometimes you just get unlucky. This is especially true for money leagues where your dream goes from winning the whole damn thing to maybe, just maybe, getting your entry fee back. What Bill doesn't realize are 1) if a bad team also has a bad owner, chances are he WON'T be submitting claims for those "hot pickups o' the week", meaning the good owners have more of a chance, and 2) there ARE solutions - making waiver claims cost $ is one, while not 'locking down the free agents' at 1 pm on Sundays is another. All the basic Yahoo leagues I'm in keep everything wide open; the only players on waivers are ones who've been dropped recently. The downside of this is people tend to add players as the games are going on. Simmons should have mentioned THIS as well.

Reason #4: Staying Healthy
The simple solution is to have 'team players'. For example rather than drafting Drew Brees, you draft "New Orleans QB".

Reason #6: Screw job trades
Most leagues require the other owners vote on trades. Problem solved.

Reason #7: You need a lot of luck
Hmmm... has Simmons seen my site and my Declaration of Principles? :)

Bringin' the Lame

You may recall Brad Evans is one of the Yahoo! yahoos who tries to use slick lingo and mockery of those who email to mock him in order to get himself over.

Here is his latest column.

He starts off talking about how to make trades while at a party. While I appreciate him holding off on this till now (everyone else was talking about trades after Week 3), he should've mentioned that some of his advice just doesn't work on-line. Obviously you don't have to worry about alcohol consumption, so I'm talking about the rest of his advice.

2. Be arrogant yet open-minded
This works online, too, with emails, but another tool at your disposal is the "Trading Block". CBS Sportline and Yahoo! both have one, so I'm sure they all do. This takes an EXTRA layer of desperation out, as you're truly just 'throwing stuff out there'. An added benefit is now potential traders KNOW they're in a competition and in a free-market system, competition is good!

3. Don't low ball
I think this really depends on the league. I'm in a league where lowballing is the norm. For example, long story short, prior to Sammy Morris getting hurt, I had a deal in place to get Derrick Mason (the guy needed him b/c of byes). After Sunday, I instead offered Barber. The guy countered by asking for ADDAI!! If you're lucky and NOT in a league where everyone tries to screw everyone, then great, don't low ball. But sometimes you have to 'play the game'. Ideally, you and the other guy will reach a point where you can say "Okay, now that we've established that neither side is screwing the other, consider this fair proposal".

Another reason to lowball is when you really don't have any idea what the other guy would take in return. In the same league, I was interested in a WR, but the guy had a pretty balanced team. I 'offered' Greg Olsen, but put in the note "hey, I would like Engram and I know Olsen isn't enough; take a look at my roster and counter-propose". We ended up not trading, but I think I handled that right. Bottom line: sometimes you don't want to open negotiations with a trade proposal that the other guy can accept right away; sometimes you just want to get his attention.

UPDATE: after following my own advice and putting Marion Barber 'on the block', the aforementioned owner offered Derrick Mason for him. I've accepted the deal.

Brad's column takes a nosedive, though, with his picks of 2 'Fantasy Flames/Lames':

• Kevin Jones (Flame) - Repeat after me, "there is RARELY a good time to start Kevin Jones". Yes, I'm speaking as a jaded former owner over the past FOUR YEARS. I don't care if Brad "anticipates Mike Martz to feature the ultra-versatile Jones noticeably in the Lions' aerial gameplan. Have faith in him as a No. 2 in all 12-team formats.". I anticipate that Jones will reinjure himself in the first quarter. I'd rather start Brad's "Shocker Special" of Kevin Faulk.


• Marion Barber (Lame) - I'll admit Brad does have some good points regarding the Vikes' run D. He left out a key bit of info, though: Dallas has gone to a true RBBC, whereby Barber and Jones alternate series. No more "Julius between the 20s and Barber to finish the drive". That's what's kept Barber's numbers down these past couple of weeks and that'll help keep them down even after Week 7 is over.

"Should be owned in all leagues"?

That's how Rotoworld says a guy is 'good'. Here is an example.

The caveat is that they don't also say "but possibly not by you". I really wish they would give some context as to the 'best' player they would drop in favor of picking up the new player. For example, should I drop DeShaun Wynn to pick up Kenny Watson? Yes? Okay, but should I drop Jerious Norwood? Wait, he's ALSO a "own in all leagues" guy. What do I do?

Yahoo's reaching a bit

Their latest Pickups of the Week are basically everything I created this blog to caution against.

Plug-n-play Joey Harrington after NONE of his receivers seem interested in catching passes and most of the team has mutinied against Bobby Petrino?

Waste a claim on Kevin Faulk when we know NOTHING about the status of Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris? PS: my guess is Maroney starts this week.

Recommend the Saints' Lance Moore WITHOUT also recommending David Patten?

Backhandedly pimp Kyle Boller (against BUF) with the following: "Boller may indeed be the epitome of oafishness – he managed just 184 yards and a pick versus the rancid Rams last week – but he has reasonable odds of racking a 220-yard, two-touchdown day given the encouraging matchup"?

They're seriously reaching, folks. And that just ain't common sensical.

Have you seen Colston or Marion Barber?

If so, please tell them they're killing my fantasy squads.

Marques was last seen run blocking for the Saints during their Sunday night game against Seattle. He caught 1 pass for 2 yards that resulted in a TD (after dropping a similar pass 2 downs prior).

Barber hasn't gotten into the endzone in two weeks and it looks like he's in a true platoon with Julius Jones now (alternating series).

If you've heard any good 'Colston is hurt' rumors, share them in the comments, ok?

Desperately Seeking Desmond

Curious as to why Desmond Clark isn't listed in Yahoo's TE Rankings for Week 6, but Greg Olsen is. Are they THAT enamored with the He-Man look-alike?

In other sites' rankings, Clark and Olsen are usually ranked together, just below Owen Daniels. This seems weird, as Daniels has to go on the road to face JAX while the Bears are at home. I'm guessing the 'experts' think that Clark and Olsen are going to split the looks, while Daniels is all by himself.

Still, I think I made the right call by dropping Daniels for Clark. I later picked up Olsen, but I plan to start Clark due to his overall experience as well as his past history with Brian Griese.

This means you all should go out and start Olsen, btw :)

Sunday Night Update: Daniels lead the trio with 5 rec for 79 yards, Olsen was 2nd with 5 for 63 and Clark brought up the rear with 3 for 48. The lesson? Daniels is legit.

Holy crap, I've been thinking this for the past 3 weeks!

I'm not the only one!

Around the web o' crap

Below par edition of East Coast Offense this week, punctuated by a recommendation to go out and grab Kellen Clemens along with this:

Lee Evans will make a major impact as the season goes on, no matter who's playing quarterback.

Yes, he'll make a major impact to your roster if you continue to start him. Last I checked, owners don't get points for the # of times he was a decoy.

He also goes out a limb (no, really, that wasn't sarcasm) with this prediction:

At least one of Reggie Brown, D.J. Hackett or Mark Clayton will have a big second half of the season.

Of course, I could just be bitter because he offers no help with my suicide pool, recommending the Ravens, whom I already used in Week 2 against the Jets.

Then there's this 'article' on MSN FoxSports. The author pretty much set himself up to fail, though, with this openning:

Being a fantasy geek isn't easy.

... and writing about it is even harder for you, it seems. Even the usual gang of FoxSports commenters have passed on this article as 'too easy', it seems (only one comment yet the article's a day old).

Then there's the usual stuff from CBS Sportsline. For example:

One-week sleeper: Reggie Brown (at NYJ). This is the week Brown gets going. He only has eight catches for 81 yards this season and no touchdowns. But coming off the bye, look for the Eagles to start getting Brown more involved in the offense.

We talked about the 'shouldas', 'couldas' and 'wouldas', right?

Also, McNabb is their 'Start of the Week' (another 'Frick on a Stick with a Brick' moment for me, since I have him in my most important league) and they recommend starting Brian Griese, figuring that since CHI can't run on MIN, they'll throw and throw and throw. The logic is sound, I admit, but remember the QB in question IS Brian Griese. I would look for other options first. (Full disclosure: I'm starting one of the CHI TEs on Sunday, just not sure which one, yet). Sticking with the Second City, Cedric Benson is their 'Sit of the Week', which I DO agree with.

Buyer beware

All the cliches I warned about around Week 1 can be found in this latest Pickup of the Week column at Yahoo.

Recommending a WR b/c he's 'small and fast' and/or is 'the man'? Check (Dennis Northcutt - a two-fer!).

Citing obscure stats? Check (so what if WAS is giving up a lot of catches to RBs; should you still plug-n-play Vernand Morency?).

Still, it's a much easier read than MSN FoxSports' Roger Rotter's latest shotgun blast o' analysis.

Just be careful out there, okay?

You'd think I'd have learned by now

Decided to start Marion Barber over Kenton Keith yesterday. Part of the 'problem' is that I wasn't going to have PC access around 3:30 when the word on Addai should've come down and I wanted to be safe.

Instead, I should've realized that I made the same mistake before and started a visting player going into the hostile environment only a primetime game can bring. Barber didn't have a BAD game, but he didn't have a great one, either.

Last year it was starting Mark Clayton in Cincinatti on a Thursday night rather than TJ. This year, at least, it didn't cost me the win (although the extra points could be needed for tiebreakers later).

Pet Peeve and best... Yahoo!... article... ever

Anyone else sick of Yahoo! having the little icon next to a player that means 'new news', only to click on it merely to learn that "x has been nominated for y award"?

Yeah, me too.

They make up for it with this edition of East Coast Offense, which I couldn't find a link to and instead had to Google it. Best line:

when you get things totally wrong, (as you no doubt will) you should doubt yourself. Don't immediately substitute another set of stupid assumptions for your previous mistaken ones. The process by which you choose your new assumptions is the same flawed one. Keep a very loose grip on what you think.

Sit of the Week: Frank Gore?

Frank Gore is CBS Sportsline's 'Sit of the Week'. They point to his numbers not being where they were a year ago at this time and to the downgrade in QB.

The way I see it, though, if you drafted Gore, your 2nd RB is probably someone like MoJo Drew, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson (all underachievers), Reggie Bush (ditto BUT will get more carries), Rudi Johnson (bye), Willis McGahee (has the yds but few TDs) or maybe even a Marion Barber III. MBIII is the only one I'd start over Gore.

Yes, the 49ers are playing the Ravens, but their D isn't elite as in the past. Baltimore doesn't have a great offense, so the 49ers should find themselves with the ball often. SOMEONE has to carry the offense and it's not Trent Dilfer. I can definitely see Gore putting the team on his back with 75+ yds rushing, 40+ yds receiving and 1 or 2 total TDs.

Justal Pittgas

I simply do not have the time to link to every article stating that you need need NEED to go out and claim either Michael Pittman or, to a lesser extent, Justin Fargas.

As you can probably guess from the title, I'm not really all that impressed with either. Pittman has burned me a number of times over my short FFB career, either as a waiver wire pickup or as a draftee. I seem to recall a game where he ended up benched in favor of someone named Jamel Cook (correct me if I'm wrong).

Fargas, well, give the experts credit for having a little common sense. They'll acknowledge that Dominic Rhodes is due back in Week 6, but they're still a little too high on Huggy Bear's son. Fargas has done this for a couple of years now - take over in the fourth quarter and run well (after the primary back wore down the D for 3+ quarters). He never looks as good again.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go put a waiver claim in on Kenton Keith to backup Joseph Addai *sigh*.

Lesson Learned (the hard way)

Learned about an hour ago that Yahoo! won't let you add a player for the current day's game. When I learned that Maroney wasn't going to play, I tried to add Sammy Morris for tonight and couldn't.

Memo to self: be pro-active and add him the night before.

Another disturbing trend...

This one can alternatively be called "throw it all against the wall and see what sticks", as well as "upgrade everyone, downgrade everyone else".

The biggest offenders of this are the MSN FoxSports crew of Mike Harmon and Roger Rotter. We've already discussed their nearly identical Sunday wrap-up columns. What I didn't realize is that during the middle of the week, one or both put out their rankings for the following week. Sadly, I can't find the article(s) right now, but it was similar to something I saw there back during pre-season: the top 40% of the QBs/RBs/WRs were 'starters', the next 10% were 'sleepers' (that you should still start) and the remaining 50% were 'duds'. They'd have just as much 'success' with these picks if they'd just write all the names on the wall and take a shotgun to them!

Another offender is CBS Sportsline's Jamey Eisenberg (he's NOT the big/smart one). He does the weekly Start/Sit of the Week. They tend to be pretty fair, although this week his WR section is pretty weak. His Starts include a bunch of guys who excelled last week: Driver, Curtis, Chambers, McDonald, while his Sits include a bunch of guys who haven't done anything all season: Evans, Horn and Crayton. Gee Jamey, why not just find the #5 receiver on, say, the Cardinals and list him, too?

A surprise offender is Yahoo!'s John Hansen (also of FantasyGuru.com); it's a surprise because he was much better last year. His latest column is another 'shotgun' to the roster board. In fact, the only guy who doesn't seem to upgrade/downgrade is DeShaun Foster and he actually makes a big deal out of that! I wonder if Yahoo! knows this and buried his column this week. I had a real tough time finding it just now, as opposed to yesterday.

So, to sum up, we've got two disturbing trends: 1) bad humor and 2) a kitchen sink approach. The way this is going, by week 5, every columnist will just be throwing tons of jokes against the proverbial wall, with no viable fantasy advice to be found.

All Art and (Bringin' The) Noise, Signifying Nothing

Bad, bad column by Yahoo's Brad Evans this week. Let's dive in:

Outstanding defenses in 2006 that are now benign matchups: Miami (vs. Run/Pass)

One check of Yahoo's own Total Defense rankings shows that Miami is only weak against the RUN.

Pennington will dismantle the Bills with his super ginger powers.

I don't speak jive. Any of you speak jive?

Fantasy Lame - Matt Hasselbeck

Brad cites how well San Fran's pass D has done these past 3 weeks, but neglects to mention those were against Arizona (Leinart; nuff said), St. Louis (dwindling O-line and a QB with cracked ribs) and Pittsburgh (still learning their new O but Big Ben still threw a TD and no INTs). Seattle has a balanced offense that uses the run to set up the pass and that'll work just fine.

But I've saved the worst for last...

Fantasy Lame - Marvin Harrison: if I had to decide between him and, say, McDonald (vs. Chi), Jennings (at Min), Derrick Mason (at Cle), or Wes Welker (at Cin), Harrison would be the odd man out

Man, oh, man... how STUPID would you feel if Harrison goes off against DEN but was on your bench? Especially if you sat him for DERRICK MASON?!!! What makes this even worse is that at the top of the article, he says, "Thou shalt never sit thy studs even in an unfavorable matchup."

As I mentioned last week, Brad is one of the Deadspin-esque writers at Yahoo! I think he's lost his way a little bit and sadly, based on how he responds to some of his email, I don't think he'll find it again soon.

To CBS Sportsline's Dave Richard: Gotcha!

Click here to view a previous post of mine and check out the first part regarding Steve Smith.

Okay, now check out this quote from his latest 'Fantasy vs. Reality':

Fantasy: Steve Smith is the engine of the Carolina offense. It looks like DeShaun Foster is far and away the better running back for the Panthers

I TOLD you all Dave would waver on something involving Carolina, although I thought it would be on Delhomme. Nevermind the fact that Smith is ALWAYS a threat; even if he's not making catches, he's baiting DBs into pass interference penalties that still move the ball down the field.

If I didn't know any better, I'd say Dave has it in for Delhomme. He's willing to give credit to anyone BUT the guy. It'll be interesting to see what he'll say next week if David Carr steps in and has a half-decent game. Or if Jake does play and, say, TE du jour Jeff King grabs a TD, maybe Dave will annoint HIM as the 'engine'.

While I'm on his case, Dave goes on to say the following about how to handle bye weeks:

Make a play for the Bengals your team(s) needs after next week's games and play the bye-week waiver-wire game in Week 5, then coast with your Bengals for the rest of the season. Do the same with the Chargers, whose bye is in Week 7.

There's nothing wrong with giving up a smidge in a deal to get a player with a late bye week.

Sorry, but IMHO, the time to deal with bye weeks was back during your draft. Want proof? Look over on the right. I never ranked Ks and DEFs, telling you instead to just pick the best one with the latest bye week. Do NOT go out there and make wacky trades just so you can "get some Bengals". I said it once and I'll say it again: trades are VERY observable. Don't be stupid in front of your entire league just because of bye weeks.

You are what you are

After 2 weeks were in the books, I was hesitant to make major changes over on the right.

Now that we're through 3 weeks, I have no such problems. Studs are solidifying their positions. Sleepers are proving their staying-power. Busts are dropping like rocks.

The one wrinkle in all this is injuries. I spent much of Sunday without Internet access wondering about some key players across my teams: Brian Westbrook, Lamont Jordan and Plaxico Burress. I ended up starting the first two, but 'played it safe' and started Jerry Porter instead of Plax. "Hey, he's playing CLEVELAND", I thought. Well, this is where common sense should've kicked in. Once I heard through the grapevine that Plax would play, I should've inserted him. It was a big game for the G-men and Plax is a big player. On the other side of the coin, it was a meaningless game for Oakland and Porter's proving to be a meaningless player. I should've rolled with Plax. Luckily, it didn't cost me the W... THIS time.

CBS Sportsline Newz U Kan't Uze

There's more on the website, but here are some of the headlines and 'stories' that showed up in my mailbox:

• "'Marion the Barbarian' ready for Bears" - Gee, I hope so b/c if he was ready for the Dolphins, he'd be in for a shock.


• "Garcia 1-9 all-time vs. Rams" - I don't care if he can beat them; he can throw for 400 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs and lose for all I care. How does this help me?


• "McNabb looks to repeat success vs. Lions" - I'm glad he's not going to mix things up and planning to fail (although he may do so accidentally).


• "Addai should find success vs. Texans" - if there's one thing Sportsline is good for, it's "couldas", "shouldas" and "wouldas". Now, in THIS case, you should go with it. If it was, say, Cedric Benson, I'd be a little more skeptical. My favorite is when they try to predict the flow of the game. They'll say something like "we expect Rex to take some shots down field which will open up the running lanes for Benson" (just because you open up a lane doesn't mean Cedric will run through it). Until they prove that they also have a machine that lets them see the future, don't buy into it!

Frick on a stick with a brick!

Matt Hasselbeck is the CBS Sportsline "Start of the Week". I have him on 2 of my four teams. Sportsline (specifically Jamey Eisenberg) haven't done a good job with these picks. Week 1 was Deuce and last week was Adrian Peterson (who had about 100 total yards, a few catches and no TDs).

Oh, and yes, I like Scrubs. Specifically Sarah Chalke.

Disturbing.... errr... interesting trend

I'm sure the 'experts' have been getting 'hate mail' for years now, but this is the first year they all seem to be including the 'best' ones in their columns. Then they try to be hip/witty/edgy/whatever and respond.

Yahoo's got Bringin' the Noise, CBS Sportsline has "Backward hat wearing idiot #3" (or is it #2 since I deemed Dave Richard 'the smart one') and even Rotoworld has gotten into the fray by hiring Deadspin contributor and Philadelphia Magazine writer, AJ Daulerio.

What's causing all this? My guess is the blogosphere. Fantasy sites, in an attempt to seem 'cool', have either directed their writers to turn at least one of their weekly columns into a clone of a Deadspin comment section or, in Rotoworld's case, that they just hire a Deadspin guy outright.

So it's bad enough that these guys have a certain amount of space to fill and for years had done it with "Flames and Lames" or "Starts and Sits of the Week", but now they're trying to be funny, as well. Well, that's just great.

Make me a promise, readers (all 2 of you). If I EVER start sounding like one of those guys, let me know ASAP.

And if I ever give bad advice, let me know politely and I'll respond in kind. Remember my goal here: to make YOU aware of the bad 'advice' out there so you can stick to your guns, stay true to yourself and make your own decisions. I rank players over on the right because it's kinda fun, but I encourage you to come up with your own rankings and use THAT to make your lineup decisions.

Regarding trades

Sorry for the boring title, but "<jim mora voice>Trading?! You're talking about trading?! Trading?!</jim more voice>" wouldn't fit :).

Now that two weeks of the season are in the books, the 'experts' have broken out their "how to trade if you're 0-2 and hate your team" advice.

Yahoo offers these words of wisdom, while (if you can speak jive) MSN FoxSports offers this.

The tunes are basically the same: if you're 0-2, trade NOW! That's great if you're living in fantasy land. Oh, wait, we ARE in fantasy land. I mean fantasy fantasy land. But we're really in reality fantasy land, and in this land, trades are harder to pull off than you might think. Maybe I've just been in the 'wrong' leagues, but trades have been few and far between these past few years. I think what we're seeing that even the newbies are wisening up to the sharks and slamming the doors on any and all trade proposals. This is a shame because a proposal is just that and it SHOULD open the door to a negotiation. But again, that generally only happens in 'fantasy fantasy land'.

What you need to do if you're 0-2 (or even a very lucky 1-1) is be patient. You drafted your team of stars and, sadly, flops. You aren't going to get diddly-poo (what IS it with me and Jim Mora Sr. tonight?) for the flops and you'll look like an fool if you trade a star for a non-star (yesterday I turned down trading Barber III and Colston for Tatum Bell and Galloway, which is really 2-for-1 cuz Bell ain't worth squat). Remember, trades are VERY observable. They're most memorable to you and the guy who fleeced you, but others will notice as well.

Instead, work the waiver wire. Replace your flops with up-n-comers and see if you can trade them, but be patient. A shark knows a flash-in-the-pan when he/she sees one. You may have to package such a player with the star to get 2 players back that help you more. You may have to wait for a team to have a dire need for a player only you can provide (for example, if you've been stockpiling TEs; I don't advocate that, but it worked for me my first year doing FFB b/c I was able to parlay a marginal TE into Johnnie Morton (KC WR) and that was enough to turn 2-9 into 6-10).

Yes, you may go 0-3, but FFB can be streaky. The fantasy playoffs are still 11 weeks away and you can still grab that last seed. Just don't be stupid along the way. You may not have a win, but you'll still have your pride.

(Note: one of my pet peeves are people who, instead of rejecting a proposal, simply never respond. So if you're offered a bad trade, at least hit the 'Reject' button. As Skeletor said in that Robot Chicken sketch, "It's common courtesy!")

McNabb, Leftwich and a 7th round RB named Wynn

It occurred to me that after I advised 'anonymous' below to start McNabb over Bulger, I still had Bulger rated higher over on the right. I had meant to promote Donovan over Marc, which may sound silly, but bear with me. Bulger's operating behind a makeshift O-line, SJax hasn't gotten going yet and Isaac Bruce is not going to get 140+ yds every week. McNabb, OTOH, has a good O-line, Westbrook is running strong and his receivers will come around. I know it sounds bass-ackwards, but starting McNabb, against most D's, is the right move.

I am still coming to terms with all the man-love being thrown at a RB in Green Bay who's going to lose his job soon. Contrast this with the man-hate, or maybe just man-apathy, being shown Byron Leftwich.

I get that RBs win fantasy titles, but 7th round RBs going against tough run defenses do not. Do you really want to grab Wynn for the sake of saying you grabbed him?

I'd rather take my chances with Kevin Jones... again... than Wynn.

Hey FoxSports, I could mine the box scores, too, and I'll do it for 1/2 their pay

FoxSports' Mike Harmon's recap post is more enjoyable b/c of the two comments at the end than b/c of the actual article. I can't believe he got paid for it, especially considering Roger Rotter submitted a nearly identical column!!!. *shakes head in disbelief*

Deconstructing an expert: CBS Sportsline's Dave Richard

Man, the year I decide to start a blog to take these guys down, they finally start employing some common sense. Dave Richard had two decent postings today: a 'recap' column and his usual 'Fantasy vs. Reality' one. The latter one bears watching, though, because he will probably start contradicting himself next week. For example, this week he says:

Fantasy: Jake Delhomme is back, baby!

Get it? It's 'fantasy' because the real credit should go to Steve Smith. As a Steve Smith owner, I don't really care. Just you watch, though; one bad game from Jake and Dave will post a "Reality: Delhomme stinks" blurb. Bank on it.

In his other column, he has 3 waiver wire recommendations. The first one, though, reads like an example of "how not to piss off an NFL running back":

DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay: I'm not a huge fan of Wynn -- he had 12 yards on nine carries before breaking off a 38-yard run -- but it appears that he's going to be a part of the Packers' RB rotation, at least until Vernand Morency comes back. Who knows when that will be. I'd pick him up in all leagues just for depth on the bench.

So he's 'not a huge fan', he'll lose reps when Morency comes back, but *I* should pick him up in ALL leagues? Why not tell me who the best player you'd drop for him would be? Should I drop... oh, I dunno... DeShaun Foster for him? I honestly don't know; tell me!

He also says you should replace an underachieving WR with TEN's Roydell Williams, who will probably start underachieving himself in Week 3.

All in all, though, Dave does a good job of preaching patience with guys like LJ, Kool-Aid, Mojo Drew and SJax.

Ummm... oops?

Well, if anyone was keeping track on my "Travis Henry vs. Laurence Maroney" theory, here are the facts:

Henry finished with 128 rushing yards and 2 catches for 8 yards. Cecil Sapp vultured a TD from him. Selvin Young also got in on the act.

Kool-Aid finished with 77 rushing yards. Most of it came in the fourth quarter and Sammy Morris vultured a TD, after Maroney did the bulk of the work getting NE down to the 3 yard line. This bears further watching.

What the experts will be talking about on 9/17

• Carolina's Drew Carter and Jeff King again (although, as a Vernon Davis owner, 'the King' is looking mighty tempting)


• CIN's 'G. Holt' (5 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD)


• CLE's Joe Jurevicius (4 rec, 44 yds, 2 TD)


• ATL's Roddy White (4 rec, 81 yds) - you know who his QB is, right?


• JAX's Reggie Williams (2 rec, 41 yds, 1 TD) - Wasn't he 5th on the depth chart???


• PIT's Nate Washington (3 rec, 60 yds) - I think Ben's spreading the ball around TOO much


• BUF's Roscoe Parrish (6 rec, 56 yds) - I think he got much of this once PIT had the game well in hand


• NO's David Patten (2 rec, 66 yds) and L. Moore (3 for 46) - something's 'not right' in the Big Easy right now


• TB's Ike Hilliard (2 for 51) - he's still in the league?


• TEN's Roydell Williams (4 for 72, 1 TD) and Brandon Jones (5 for 57)


• DET's Shaun McDonald again

Deconstructing an 'expert': FoxSports' Roger Rotter

It's kinda like shooting fish in a barrel, but I need content... badly. :)

Roger Rotter's latest article ranges from the 'no duh' to the 'headscratcher'. He's got a 'Cannot Bench List' containing the usual suspects like Peyton and LT2 and... Cedric Benson??? The same guy who did nothing against a great run D? He's also got Lee Evans, which I'll admit I'm torn on. I've never had the guy, but he seems like the kind of player who'll haul in a 78 yard TD bomb in garbage time, giving JP Losman an even 100 yards passing on the day. Still, I have a hard time looking past Losman being his QB.

A bit further down, he's got some 'projections' and he's got Maroney all the way down there at # 27, behind such notables as Ladell Betts and Brandon Jackson and tied with backup Jesse Chatman. I think Roger and a lot of other 'experts' are forgetting that Kool-Aid only has one real pre-season game under his belt and he ran well during it (I'm guessing he took the final game off). They're also pointing to the Heath Evans TD in garbage time and wondering "why wasn't Maroney in there?". Umm... you just answered your own question; it was GARBAGE TIME!

Mark my words, this Sunday night if a NE WR gets tackled at the 1 yard line (or there's pass interference in the end zone) and the game hasn't been decided yet, Maroney (not Sammy Morris and not Heath Evans) will be in there every snap. He's taking Dillon's role, people! Big players make big plays in big games and this Sunday night is a big game. Contrast this to, say, Travis Henry, who plays at home against OAK (Roger has Henry listed as his #1 RB this week). Call me crazy, but I can envision Henry and the Broncos taking this game a little too lightly and sleepwalking through most of the game. Henry will finish with 20 carries for 87 yards (no TDs) and the experts will be scrambling Monday morning. Meanwhile, Kool-Aid will get a TD early and then go over 100 late as the Pats run out the clock.

Ooooh, here's another one: Alex Smith is #12, meaning Roger thinks he'll do better than Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme, two veteran QBs. I could go on, but what's the point?

Vacation Over!

You know how people say they need a vacation to recover from their last vacation? That's why I've been gone for about 2 weeks. I followed up my 3 day Vegas trip with a quick weekend at home and then 4 days & 3 nights down the Jersey Shore (Wildwood Crest, to be precise). The hotel had a free Internet cafe', so if my one reader is around and wondering how I updated the rankings, well, that's how.

Full Disclosure
I went 2-2 last weekend. One loss was a blowout (only Addai and Westbrook showed up, while my opponent had guys like Kitna, Witten and the SD DEF) and one was a 4 point loss (I could be angry at a host of players, such as Leinart or Deion Branch).

About those CBS Sportsline guys
Jamey Eisenberg's 'Start of the Week' is Adrian Peterson, with no mention of how poorly last week's Start (Deuce) fizzled. I think this pick is pure man-crush. You have to also realize that they're playing the Lions in Detroit, so there's a possibility Martz, Kitna & Co. take to the air and get out to a lead before MIN knows what hit them (MIN has a good *run* D, not so great against the pass). This will pretty much take away their running game and I'm not convinced based on one 60 yard screen pass against ATLANTA that Adrian is a pass-catching back. Plus, who's the MIN QB? Tavaris Jackson? On the road? 'Nuff said.

His "Sit of the Week" is LJ, which I kinda sorta agree with, although it would've been nice if he had said LJ may do all right in PPR leagues.

I don't have time to go through the rest of the projections. Watch out for the 'couldas' and the 'shouldas', okay? Be careful out there!

I'm actually fairly close to labelling Dave Richard "the smart one" (he's already got the label of 'the big one'). His Fantasy/Reality wasn't bad and he had a comment a while back saying Colston would be a bust, which I endorse (didn't stop me from drafting him when I was in Vegas though *groan*).

What the 'experts' will be talking about

I'm hoping this will be a regular segment where, every Sunday night, I try and guess which players (WRs, mostly) the 'experts' will urge us to go out and claim off the waiver wire. Here are my guesses for Week 1 (fyi, I have read ZERO 'Sunday wrap-up' columns at this point; you'll just have to take my word for it).

• Marcus Pollard (SEA TE): 5 rec, 43 yards.


• Bobby Engram (SEA WR): 3 rec, 64 yards.


• Shaun McDonald (DET WR): 6 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD.


• Mike Furrey (DET WR): 5 rec, 52 yards.


• Ronald Curry (OAK WR): 10 rec, 133 yards, 1 TD.


• Drew Carter (CAR WR): 3 rec, 19 yards, 2 TD.


• Jeff King (CAR TE): 5 rec, 35 yards.


• Wes Welker (NE WR): 6 rec, 61 yards, 1 TD.


• Roddy White (ATL WR): 4 rec, 29 yards.


• Dennis Northcutt (JAX WR): 4 rec, 57 yards.


• Jason Avant (PHL WR): 3 rec, 54 yards, 1 TD.


• Brandon Marshall (DEN WR): 5 rec, 52 yards, 1 TD.

The words will all be the same. If the receiver is tall, they'll say the receiver has a height advantage over most corners. If he's small, they'll say he's quick and/or elusive. They'll talk about how the other WRs higher up on the depth chart will 'open things up' for this guy (ex: "Steve Smith will really open things up for Carter and King"). Or maybe they'll use the worst phrase of all and say that he's "clearly the man". Example: "with 4 catches for 57 yards, Northcutt is now clearly the man in Jacksonville". Do you REALLY want 'the man' in JAX or ATL?

What you need to decide is whether or not there's room on your roster for one of these players after just a week. Remember our mission: don't look stupid.

Deion Branch had better be dead

I'm a forgiving guy. I can take McNabb being held under 200 yards (even though it'll mean I lose to a guy who started Kitna). I can forgive Westbrook dropping a couple easy passes. I can even forgive Colston a bit, since I knew he would fall back down to Earth.

What I can't forgive is getting a goose-egg from a former Super Bowl MVP.

Changing Gears

Well, I'm back. Welcome to all who found this site b/c of the shout out from The Big Lead. If you're wondering where the content's been, it was with me in Las Vegas! My lovely wife let me do a solo trip out there to take advantage of a great offer from Bally's. I came home a mere $20 lighter than when I left. I also did my last fantasy draft from an "internet cafe" in a strip mall across the street from the Monte Carlo.

Now that the season has started, I'm hoping that this site will finally begin to look like what I envisioned: a place to contradict all the 'expert' advice out there with clean, simple common sense. The main difference is that I'm going to try my best not to let matchups dictate line-up decisions. I don't know about you, but I've been burned too many times by benching a stud going against an 'elite' D and instead going with someone labelled as the 'start of the week' due to the matchup. Remember, big players make big plays in big games. What I've done over on the right is rank players based on a matchup-agnostic "whom would you rather have?" methodology. Another way to look at it would be "how stupid would I feel for starting X over Y if Y is the one who has the better game?".

Speaking of 'start of the week', Deuce was CBS Sportsline's for Week 1 and I think we all know how that went. Had I seen that in time, I would've posted sooner... honest!

For all of you using FoxSports for your leagues, I'm sorry to hear about the recent troubles with the site. If you don't know what I'm talking about, click here and scroll down to the comments. Fox Sports now has the worst 'league site' to go along with the worst 'advice site' in the business. Great job, Fox!

CBS Sportsline writer confuses dolphins for sharks

Jamey Eisenberg obviously thinks he'll get attacked if he says anything bad about any Miami players.

On the sliding Ronnie Brown

You still have to think of Brown as a No. 2 Fantasy option because of his talent, but lower your expectations of how good he will be this season.

I've got Ronnie ranked at #17, so I guess he COULD be a team's 2nd RB if the manager is intent on going RB-RB in the first two rounds. Still, there are a bevy of WRs and QBs (and a certain TE named Gates) that I'd take before Mr. Brown.

On Trent Green

If Green can stay healthy, he could be productive for the Dolphins and a decent No. 2 Fantasy QB.

The only league I'm in where Trent Green was drafted was my 8 team league where you start 2 QBs and the manager promptly cut Trent when David Garrard was elevated to 'starter' in Jacksonville. 'Nuff said.

On TE David Martin

Martin could eventually be a starting Fantasy TE for a lot of owners.

'Eventually' translating to "end of the season when the Chargers have nothing to play for and Gates takes a couple of weeks off".

Heaven forbid a CBS Sportsline FFB 'expert' tells it like it is.

I could easily beat Bill Simmons (just not this year)

ESPN's Page 2's Sports Guy posted his top 50 fantasy players today, dropping the fact that he's got the #1 pick in his West Coast league, meaning he's taking LT2.

Any other year, though, I could take him, based on the rest of his rankings.

Shaun Alexander #3

Comeback year. You can feel it in the air.

Yes, that's right, waste the #3 pick on a RB the wrong side of 30 who needs to 'come back' in order to live up to such a high pick. Plus, this violates one of the rules he set forth years ago. Well, it's not a rule, exactly, but it goes like this: "You never want to take a guy in his 'he lost it' year." This COULD be that year for Shaun.

Joseph Addai #4

One of the fundamental mistakes of fantasy football is that people would value Addai over Alexander because it's more fun to take Addai. After all, he's the up-and-comer, the potential breakout guy, the guy with the higher ceiling. Well, why not go with the guy who's healthy and who has done it before? With your first-round pick, you should approach it like you'd bet your life on the pick. Would you bet your life on Addai doing better than Alexander this season? I sure wouldn't.

And that's why, in a nutshell, Bill Simmons isn't that good at FFB.

Willis McGahee #10

Baltimore's upgrade from Jamal Lewis to McGahee was like going from coach to first class on one of those two-floor jumbo jets like the one they used on "Snakes on a Plane." By Week 6, I see him sitting at 600-plus yards and eight TDs

I'll admit McGahee has more 'upside' than Lewis. But you're putting that two-floor jumbo jet in a rat-infested, ready-to-be-condemned hangar known as the Ravens O. I'll say that 600 yards by Week 6 is possible, if not probable, but NOT 8 TDs.

Cedric Benson #11, Marvin Harrison #12
There's no way Cedric should go this high, ahead of Harrison, to boot.

Marshawn Lynch #14, Travis Henry #15, MOJO Drew #16 (FIVE whole spots behind Reggie Bush) and Carson Palmer #17
Another one of his old precepts bite the dust, apparently: the one that most drafters are afraid of rookies, meaning you can scoop them up much later. Has he even LOOKED at the box scores of Buffalo's pre-season games???

Laurence Maroney #19
HERE'S the guy who thinks Kool-Aid will be in a timeshare with Sammy Morris; I knew there'd be someone.

Edgerrin James #20
Another ranking based on comeback potential. Pfft...

You know what? I can't even make it another 30 spots. I'm jumping right to his sleepers.

Sleeper 2: Vince Young
Ummm.... Bill... you already put him in your Top 50. He can't be both. Sigh...

Sleeper 3 (tie): Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

I'd rather grab these guys in the middle rounds over wasting a fourth-round pick on Bulger or Hasselbeck and hoping they stay healthy.

If he's wasting a fourth round pick on Hasselbeck, he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning anyway. Hasselbeck CAN be had in the 'middle rounds'. I'd rather grab HIM than one guy who's never started before and forced to work behind a bad O-line (Schaub) and a guy no longer in a Norv Turner O (Smith).

Sleeper 12: Selvin Young
Proof that Simmons turned in this column late because he was able to take advantage of Shanny screwing over all those who drafted Mike Bell or Cecil Sapp.

This is funny

This kinda sounds like me 5 years ago when I started playing FFB. This is the first worthwhile article on FoxSports.com in a while.

Also 'funny' (but not "ha ha" funny) is what happened in my 8 team league. Cutler's owner cut him and I was all set to add him and drop Schaub but I saw Jay and Kitna have the same bye week. We only get 20 add/drops in that league so I withdrew the waiver claim. Those add/drops turn into currency later in the season. Managers usually end up striking deals like "both our TEs are on a bye; let's both agree to not grab a backup and instead take zeroes" in order to save add/drops.

Another draft bites the dust

I had another draft Tuesday night, but training for my Vegas trip next week kept me from posting the results till now (learning Deuces Wild Video Poker and Pai Gow Poker on my PC).

This was another Yahoo! league, with very strange scoring. First of all, you start QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, so WRs are like currency. Second of all, the scoring format favors running/receiving TDs over yardage (although there is a .5 PPR and 3 bonus points for 300 yds/passing, 100 yds/rush and 100 yds/rec). So I altered my strategy a bit; I was helped out by getting a good slot: third!

• Joseph Addai


• Marvin Harrison


• Antonio Gates


• Deuce McAllister


• Marion Barber III


• Deion Branch


• Bernard Berrian


• LaMont Jordan


• Matt Hasselbeck


• Jerry Porter


• Fred Taylor


• Devery Henderson


• Brett Favre


• Matt Stover


• Denver


• Wes Welker

I really agonized over taking Gates with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round; it was between him and T.O.. MAYBE had I done that, I still could've ended up with Winslow or Heap later and I could've taken a better RB than Deuce, but remember, TDs are more valuable here and Deuce will get his share. Also, a LOT of good RBs went between my pick at #3 and my second. I don't have the info anymore, but I think the best available at that point was Thomas Jones, whom I am now worried about. So WR/WR was how I decided to play it, but opted instead for a TE who scores like a WR. I'm totally happy with Branch as my #2 and ecstatic with Berrian as my #3.

Fred Taylor was a "holy crap, he's still available?!" pick. And I can't believe Devery lasted as long as he did.

2 down, 2 to go

I had two drafts today. Both were Yahoo! leagues, but each was different.

The first was a 10 team league where you start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF, no PPR and passing TDs only worth 4. I had the 7th slot and came away with:

• Laurence Maroney


• Willie Parker


• Reggie Wayne


• Plaxico Burress


• Deion Branch


• Kellen Winslow


• Matt Hasselbeck


• Deuce McAllister


• Brandon Jackson


• Adrian Peterson


• Jerry Porter


• LaMont Jordan


• Seattle


• Matt Stover


• Ben Roethlisberger

I was pleased with myself for flip-flopping Plax and Deion; even though I ranked Branch higher, I had a hunch if I waited till the next round, he'd still be there. I was also happy to start the run on tight ends with my Winslow pick (Gates had gone at 3.08). I'm hoping to use a couple of the RBs as trading chips down the road.

The 2nd draft didn't go as well. It's an 8 team league and I had the 8th pick. Also, the starting lineup is QB, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DEF, plus PPR PLUS 6 points for passing TDs. I found about my slot about 20 minutes before the draft and initially settled on taking a stud QB with my 2nd pick, but... well... take a look at what happened:

• Laurence Maroney


• Larry Johnson


• Steve Smith


• Antonio Gates


• Cedric Benson


• Jon Kitna


• Matt Leinart


• Deion Branch


• Carnell Williams


• Brandon Jackson


• Darrell Jackson


• Matt Schaub


• Joey Galloway


• DeAngelo Williams


• Matt Stover


• Jacksonville

Yup, I took LJ instead. I gambled that I'd still be able to get my #6 QB, McNabb, in round 3, but it wasn't to be. So I did the next best thing and took Gates! As you can see, I missed out on the run for backup QBs as well and had to settle for Schaub. Well, the good thing about this league is that a lot of decent players are still available and I can add/drop if absolutely necessary.

By the way, Maroney had himself a heck of a game Friday night, no? Good thing I had no plans on drafting Travis Henry instead! I have a hunch, though, that some 'experts' out there will make mention of Sammy Morris getting some carries and use that as an excuse to dump on Laurence. We'll see if I'm right this week!

Oh... great... THESE guys...

To be fair, they've been posting semi-regularly over at fantasy.sportsline.com. I just haven't been paying attention because a) I know they suck and 2) my one league that uses sportsline didn't really 'get going' until the other day.

Who are these guys? Call them any derogatory name you want, just don't call the big one late for dinner. In short, these are the guys you DON'T want to listen to. If you used The Princeton Review for SAT prep (like I did... 15 years ago), you may remember "Joe Blogs". Joe Blogs is the average guy who gets an average SAT score b/c he gets the easy stuff right, bats .500 against the slightly harder stuff and always guesses wrong on the hard questions.

Let's look at what they had to say lately, after letting their backwards caps cut off the flow of blood to their brains (can't link to their articles b/c they're 'exclusive' to Sportsline fantasy players):

On whether to trade Maroney for Travis Henry

I would absolutely make the trade for Henry. We have seen what Mike Shanahan has done with a bunch of no-name running backs (Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns), but now he inherits a back with a ton of talent. Maroney is an up-and-coming talent, but if you look at his track record, he has done his best work in a tandem situation going all the way back to his days in college at Minnesota.

Yeah, good advice. Then when Shanny decides to give serious reps to Mike Bell or even Cecil Sapp for whatever reason, you'll feel like a chump. You may also want to keep the RB with the established QB, but hey, I just do this for free (and also, I wear my cap forward).

On Vince Young

2007 projections: 262-of-443 passing, 2,932 yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions in 15 games
Outlook: Young also is projected to rush for 524 yards and six touchdowns this season, and it's his rushing numbers along with his passing totals that make him a No. 1 Fantasy QB. There is a concern with the lack of experienced weapons in the passing game, but expect Young to make up for that by making those younger players better.

He'll make them better, all right, or else he'll bop them in their helmetted heads with his throwing hand! And, I'm sorry, but his main weapons are all tight ends. He's not sniffing 3000 yards in the air; no way.
Editor's note: upon further review, I realized that a QB needs to average LESS THAN 200 YARDS A GAME to finish the year at 3000 yards, so maybe Vince can sniff that many.

On Jay Cutler

2007 projections: 313-of-491 passing, 3,702 yards, 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions in 16 games
Outlook: Cutler started the final five games of the season last year and showed why he is a No. 1 Fantasy QB going into this season. He has plenty of talent around him ... Cutler may have early growing pains since his playing time was limited last year, but he should improve in his second season.

So he'll have growing pains, but he'll be a #1 QB and get kinda close to 4000 yards? Does the guy who wrote this realize that Shanny likes to RUN the ball?

On Matt Leinart

2007 projections: 317-of-516 passing, 3,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions in 15 games
Outlook: Leinart has the chance to significantly improve this season because of the new coaching staff and the players around him. With stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald and the expected upgrade in the running game with Edgerrin James, Leinart should thrive. He'll start the season on the cusp of a starting Fantasy option, but don't be surprised if he's your starting QB by the end of the year.

Okay, I'll be honest: this one I kind of agree with. It may be a little high, but the numbers sound about right. I don't understand how he can be 'on the cusp' of being a #1 Fantasy QB, while Cutler already is, but then again, I've got 100% bloodflow to my brain.

On Tavaris Jackson

2007 projections: 236-of-391 passing, 2,657 yards, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions in 14 games
Outlook: Jackson has the most work to do going from his rookie year to this season. He had limited playing time last year, and the Vikings have no wide receivers to speak of coming into the season. The Vikings are counting on Jackson to improve, but he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy option. He might end up surprising you, but don't worry about wasting a draft pick on him.

If you waste a draft pick on Jackson, you've got bigger things to worry about because you probably F'ed up elsewhere in your draft as well.

And this, in a nutshell, is my main problem with these guys: they LOVE EVERYBODY! Studs are super-studs. Middle-tier guys are studs. Sleepers are 'almost studs that you should still draft'. It's almost as if they're afraid of offending an NFL player or something.

NO at KC: Data mining

Purely looking at the GameCenter page from CBS Sportsline, I can only offer the following:

• NO played it safe, especially with Reggie Bush (who had ZERO catches, while Deuce had 4!). Still, Reggie was able to get 51 yards on just 6 rushes. Also MIA was Marques Colston and Devery Henderson.


• Brodie Croyle STINKS. Larry Johnson will face 9 men in the box ALL YEAR if the QB situation in KC doesn't improve.

JAX at GB: What have we learned, Charlie Brown?

Not much I'm afraid. "Learning" implies new information and I either saw confirmation of existing knowledge or a muddying of the waters.

• Brandon Jackson is good, but JAX's D is better (11 rushes for 20 yards and a TD). He did chip in 4 catches for 23 yards, too.


• Greg Jennings caught a couple of balls could be back in the WR mix, even though James Jones went off (6 for 80).


• The above item is moot if Donald Driver misses considerable time because then both of those guys are worth drafting.


• The WRs NOT worth drafting all had jaguar heads on their helmets. I *think* Wilford and Northcutt started. Leftwich overthrew Northcutt twice. Reggie Williams, who somehow was their 'leading receiver' in 06, had some looks. Matt Jones had a drop or two, but had a nice catch-n-run once Garrard took over. If Del Rio can't make a decision, how can YOU make one?


• Speaking of "Lord" Byron, the only time he looked good was when Labrandon Toefield came in the game. If you could guarantee that Byron will ONLY ever throw to Toefield this season, I'll happily bump him up my rankings. If you can't guarantee me that, I'll assume we're in for another year of sacks, a slow throwing motion, overthrows, dropped passes and the inevitable mid-season injury.


• I really wanted to see who lined up in the backfield when JAX got down near the goal line, but by the time that happened, Taylor and Jones-Drew were out of the game. So I can't give any credence to this Pancake Blocks entry regarding Greg Jones, back from injury, becoming a TD vulture.


• I think I came away most impressed with the Packers D. They handled the 1-2 punch of the Jags' RBs and weren't lured to sleep by Leftwich's windup. Considering the offenses in the rest of the NFC North, GB MAY be worth drafting if you somehow get caught with your pants down at the end of your draft.

Rotoworld goes from 'decent' to 'blow'

Gregg Rosenthal is doing a draft right now is posting a new blog entry every single time a thought enters his head. If you're reading this a couple of days later, you'll have to go back to his entries from 8/22.

Some guy named Matt Pitzer has a new column there. His first offering is so chock full of common sense he should return his paycheck.

Snap back to reality (a mea culpa)

I can't believe I'm actually now indebted to guys like Sean Salisbury, but based on this, I am. It's an analysis of the ESPN Fantasy Draft Special from last night that I didn't watch b/c it was 1.5 hours long and I barely have time to watch a 15 minute show like Robot Chicken these days. Sean took Laurence Maroney at #5 (I had him ranked at 4) and the guys at Winning the Turnover Battle really let him have it.

If you go by the premise that "good ideas seem like bad ideas to losers" and vice versa, I REALLY messed up with my RB rankings. The whole point of this blog was to make sure you didn't follow advice that would later make you look like an idiot and I failed in that respect. I fell in love with guys like Thomas Jones, but devalued a guy like Frank Gore who works out by dragging tires around and just so happens to have a broken hand (and a new O-coordinator, but I'll let this slide).

I also dropped Calvin Johnson down considerably. I'm thinking of dropping Deion Branch as well, but I'm torn. On the one hand I KNOW he'll produce, but on the other, someone could probably take one of the WRs that came after him in round X and still be able to get Branch in round X+1. So I'm not sure if I should rank based on performance or on 'value'. Let me hear your thoughts in the comments, all 1 of you :).

Maybe I can coach for the Fins...

Item 5 confirms what I said the other day about Ronnie Brown's performance.

Some good info in that article about Brandon Jackson, Lamont Jordan and Laurence Maroney, too.

Stop Eli Manning. Stop him before it's too late.

In the game against the Ravens last night, the play-by-play will tell you that, early in the first, Eli fumbled. It will later tell you that the Giants got the ball back and Eli led the team on a touchdown drive, hitting up-and-coming receivers like Michael Jennings and Steve Smith in the process. Maybe this morning you read about how both those receivers were hurt on the drive. Maybe you also read that two other injuries occurred within roughly the same 2 minute timespan (Sam Madison pulled his right hammy and Will Demps dislocated his elbow).

What you probably haven't read is how all this is Eli's fault. Jennings had to ssssssttttttrrrreeeeeetttttttccccchhhhhhh to get the last ball he caught and that's what caused his ACL to detach and zip up his leg like a window shade (NOT like a 'lamp shade', which is what Madden said). Smith caught an Ed Reed forearm shiver to the head catching the TD that Eli zipped to him in between Ed and another Baltimore defender.

And I don't have proof, but I bet Eli said to Demps at one point something like "launching yourself in the air and hitting another guy with your helmet always seemed like a good idea to me; I mean it's not like you're gonna dislocate your elbow or anything".

Sam Madison, meanwhile, pulled his hammy while thinking "Oh crap, I can't let Baltimore score because we don't have a good enough QB to lead us back. Gotta run, gotta run, gotta..... OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!".

I think when the book closes on Eli's career, that book will be entitled "Who Wanted It Less?" and it will have been co-written by Drew Bledsoe.

(note: this ultimately means I've dropped Plax a few notches, due to the fact that Eli will probably get him killed at some point).

Doug Tucker must've been watching a different game

Doug Tucker, an AP sports writer, wrote the game recap for Miami vs. KC at Yahoo!. This line, in particular, vexes me:

Miami's retooled offensive line, a big worry all during training camp, opened hole after hole in the first quarter for Ronnie Brown, who had gains of 12 and 10 yards to get Green's long drive started.

I actually took the time out of my busy schedule to rewatch Ronnie's runs, since I still had the game on my DVR. I would say, that of his 13 rushes, a mere 2 or 3 of the good ones were because of open holes. Oh, sure, it's easy to say a hole was open by virtue of the fact that there was a space for him to run through. But if you look closer, you'll see a lot of fancy footwork, a couple of cutbacks and some poor tackling by KC.

If you want to see what open holes look like, check out what Minnesota's O-line was able to open up for Adrian Peterson against the Jets.

Friday night action

Some quick thoughts before I go to bed:

• Carolina running backs looked pretty good tonight; maybe it wasn't just a false positive from facing the Giants last week. Delhomme, however, continued to struggle. I may need to adjust his ranking as well as that of Steve Smith


• McNabb was, in a word, awesome. He seemed pretty locked in with Kevin Curtis, whom I also may have been wrong about. Maybe he won't be this year's Nate Burleson after all.


• MIN's Adrian Peterson continued to shine, but NYJ's Pennington may have taken a step backwards.


• Another stinker from Marshawn Lynch. Still, I think I've got him ranked just about right.

Goodnight you princes (and princesses) of fantasy football!

Dolphins at Chiefs

This definitely isn't an attempt to 'live blog' as I've officially stopped watching the game. I have no desire to partake in "Cleo and Brody's Excellent Adventure".

Even when Trent Green and Damon Huard were in there, though, there wasn't much to write home about.

Ronnie Brown looked good, but I think that was in spite of the Miami O. Trent Green again looked pretty bad, although Jaws tried to pump him up, saying that there were some drops that were not his fault. Again, you have to look at the O-line. Too many times, it looked like a jailbreak on defense. Brown only got his yards due to some nifty moves, some overpursuit by KC and some plain ol' dumb luck. Nifty moves will only work so many times and not all defenses overpursue.

It's clear that Ronnie Brown is Cam Cameron's Tomlinson, just like David Martin is 'supposed' to be Cameron's new Antonio Gates. Martin was targeted a bunch of times, but did have one or two drops. Don't go bumping Martin up your draft board, though. I'm not (I'll add him at the bottom, though).

Stop the presses: Chris Chambers caught a ball!

I don't have much to say about KC because Larry Johnson still hasn't signed, but I WILL say that I know Michael Bennett is a capable RB and if he couldn't get anything going, chances are LJ won't fare too much better. KC's O-line seemed content to play their own little game of 'anything you can do we can do worse' with Miami's O-line.

If I only got paid for this...

this is the kind of article I'd write. But alas, I have a full time job and a 6 month old at home (who's on my lap right now), so you get what you've gotten the past couple of days. I will try to provide more info going forward. Not sure how I missed Rex Grossman's nearly perfect performance, but I did and now I'm kicking myself for it.

Also, this is the kind of blog I'd have, if only I got paid for this. While the preseason is nice, I really won't be able to fulfill my 'mission statement' of debunking the 'experts' out there until the regular season gets going. Until then, I'm just another shlub with a 'notebook' on as many pre-season games as possible.

Willis McGahee is almost a top 10 back?

Take away his 16 yard run and he had 3 rushes for 4 yards.

Brian Westbrook also went 3 for 4 (not the good kind) but at least chipped in a reception for 23 yards.

Something I forgot I know (or something I know I forgot!)

Upon further review, I had already included Byron Leftwich in the 'move up' poll (why haven't you voted yet?), but I never said anything about Leftwich or his backup (or replacement?), David Garrard. Both played good games, but I'm very skeptical, having been burnt by both last year.

Some things I know I know

With all apologies to Peter King, who merely just thinks:

• Don't buy heavily into Deshaun Foster's 5 for 62 against the Giants. The Giants have a new defensive coordinator and they're also converting Mathias Kiwanuka from DE to LB. And say what you want about Michael Strahan. Sure, he may get himself into bad marriages, which result in a bad divorce and Michael begging Subway's Jarrod for 'more meat', but he was good against the run. Besides, Foster's a threat to injure himself any day now. Doesn't look like DeAngelo Williams got any reps, though; anyone know what's up?


• Brandon Jackson went 16 for 57 yds against PIT? Can anyone tell me what string of PIT's D he did this against? I'm not being snide; I really want to know!


• Ronnie Brown's 8 rushes for 8 yards is a symptom, not the disease. Trent Green looked awful, too, and I bet it all comes down to MIA's O-line.


• Jamal Lewis had 4 rushes for 20 yards. I may have been wrong; I need to see more before passing 2nd judgment.


• Regarding the Texans, some interesting quotes here. Did anyone actually see the game? I'd like to believe in Schaub, I really do, but I can't just yet. And the quote about Ahman Green (3 for 7 yds) just needing a little more blocking reminds me of baseball people saying that a pitcher 'just needs to harness his stuff'. In other words, the guy's going to annoy the living crap out of you.


• I tried watching Sunday night's game but it didn't hold my interest the way Friday's did. Neither team had any rookies I was curious about going into the game, but I guess I should've been curious about SD rookie WR Craig "Call me Buster" Davis, who looked good with the first team (my guess he was subbing for an injured Eric Parker). Did Vincent Jackson even have a catch? DJ Hackett, not Nate Burleson, got the reps when Hasselbeck was under center. Oh and Deion Branch's 30 yard TD catch merely reinforces the lofty expectations I have for him this year; I can't wait to grab this guy with a 'value pick'!

Thoughts on Bills vs. Saints (and the other games, too)

It's a good thing the Mets have started to suck (I'm looking at YOU, Billy Wagner) because now I don't feel guilty devoting more and more time to the NFL. This game had enough subplots that FFB players should've stuck around for the whole game. It was good to see the Saints' high-powered offense return to their form of last year. I paid special attention to the WR corp. Devery Henderson was given the first crack at the #2 job, taking all the reps with Brees under center and catching a bunch of balls. Colston, however, was mainly a decoy (why risk an injury at this point, right?). Once Brees exitted, it was Terrence Copper's turn, with "Pootsteps" Palko trying to cement his position as the #3 QB. He did little to distinguish himself; his chief 'highlight' was allowing a Bills defender to run a better route and interecept a ball intended for him. Finally, if you were still tuned in towards the end of the 3rd quarter and into the 4th, you saw the potential of #1 draft pick Robert Meachem, as he caught a beautiful fade pass for a 2 yard TD. Eric Johnson was in the mix as well out of the TE spot. Of course, he still has plenty of chances ahead to injure himself (I wouldn't draft him, nope, no way).

On the Bills' side, no one on O really stood out (probably because this was the Saints' 2nd game but only the Bills' first). Neither Anthony Thomas nor Marshawn Lynch did anything of note on the ground (although I think it's too early to downgrade Lynch). JP Losman looked merely okay (he was better running the ball than passing). Roscoe Parrish didn't get reps until Craig Nall took over the QB duties and I don't think Lee Evans caught a single ball. So, the bottom line is it's too early to tell with Buffalo. Now, if I were getting paid, I could probably make up something to justify my salary, but I don't so I won't ;).

Around the rest of the league
After quickly perusing the game recaps over on Yahoo, I have the following thoughts:

• Don't buy into Justin McCareins just yet. He did his damage towards the end of the first half and Atlanta's first team D isn't that good anymore so Lord only knows what their second team D is like. And yes, I got burnt by Justin a couple of years ago when he came to the Jets from TEN and have never forgiven him.


• Thomas Jones, however, was everything I expected him to be tonight.


• Take away Jerious Norwoods 10 yard TD scamper and he only had 7 rushes for 19 yards.


• At least if you take away Rudi Johnsons 20 yard dash, you've still got 4 rushes for 12 yards (3 yds/rush).


• If you draft Steven Jackson, you could do a LOT worse than handcuffing him to his backup, Rutgers' Brian Leonard.

Another poor post, but this time the comments kinda suck too.

FOXSports seems to have cornered the market on bad FFB 'experts'. This article pretty much updates an old Bill Simmons article for 2007. Sadly, the comments aren't nearly as good as before. Seems that FOXSports.com mainly attracts those who got rejected by the Deadspin commenting sheriff.

Minor RB ranking change

I'm desperate for content, so I thought I'd explain why I moved Marion Barber III down a bit and Julius Jones up a bit. I caught the first quarter of tonight's pre-season game against Indy and Jones looked decent and while Barber did get the reps when DAL marched inside the Colts' 20 and the entire 2nd series, he only looked good, no great (and certainly not like a RB who deserves to be a feature back).

Poor article, better comments

If I got paid to do this for a living, I'd write a better article than this. Make sure you scroll down to the comments.

Good old fashioned nightmare fuel

Had a dream last night that I drafted way too many running backs (Laurence Maroney, Cedric Benson and Brandon Jackson among them), the only WR I had was Steve Smith and I had no TE nor defense. This ever happen to any of you?

Deconstructing an Expert: Yahoo's Brad Evans

Michael Harmon's been quiet lately over at FoxSports, but Brad Evans has graciously stepped up as my new victim. His article here has two main inconsistencies.

• His statement "the disparity between (Peyton) Manning, the second-ranked fantasy QB in FPPG, and brother Eli Manning, the 15th best producer, was a meager 28.2 percent" makes no sense because of his use of the word 'meager'. Look, I'm a Giants fan; I know what Eli's all about. 28.2 percent is a BIG difference regardless of who the other QB is, but with Eli, you pretty much know he's useless after about week 8. So really, he's about 50% of what Peyton is, not 28%.


• Brad goes on to state that you shouldn't take Peyton in the first round (and take a RB instead) because the drop-off from the best RB to #15 is 52.4 percent. Okay, well, that's all well and good, but Brad totally forgot his fact from earlier in the article that Peyton is going between 6th and 7th in most drafts. HE'S NOT GOING #1 AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE COMPARED WITH TOMLINSON. Rather, he should be compared with the RBs he has ranked 6 and 7, which are Frank Gore and Willie Parker. Factor in Gore's injury problems and the change in O-coordinators in SF along with Parker's inability to run on the road last year AND the new spread O in PIT this year and, yeah, I think I'd take Manning (or Brady, or Palmer) there.

Of course, this all depends on your draft. If you start 2 QBs in an 8 team league where passing TDs are 6 points, you HAVE to get a stud QB with one of your first 3 picks (I'm assuming someone like Bulger will slip to early in the third round). In larger leagues where passing TDs are 3 or 4 points, yeah, you can wait a bit. If you've got the 6th or 7th pick in a large league (10-12 teams) where passing TDs are still 6 points, well, then you'll have some quick decisions to make based on where your first pick is and what you think will be left when round 2 snakes back to you.

Oh, the final nail in Brad's coffin: he's still got Vick ranked #11. 'Nuff said.