What's My Motivation?

Unlike baseball, where a level head produces better results, football requires maximum aggression/motivation. For years, I've done pretty well picking games against the spread simply by asking myself "Which team is more motivated?" This often works regardless of the teams' records. An elite team looking past a cellar-dweller often fails to cover.

In fantasy, though, it's not quite so simple. Regular football is a team game, but I'm trying to figure out which individual players will perform at their peaks. Here, motivations vary. I've already said that players who get paid in the off-season take the following year off; we're already seeing this with CJ2K. Sometimes, bringing in competition lights a fire under a RB's butt, like with Ryan Matthews. Sometimes, though, it's the reverse - Beanie Wells didn't start performing until his competition went on the IR.

The best I can do is play armchair psychologist and try and figure out what teams and players are thinking.

Now, it'd be easy to say that a team like the Chiefs isn't motivated, so I won't even waste any more time on them. Instead, I'd like to talk about some players whom you may not expect. This is going to sound eerily similar to my earlier "Trench Warfare" column, as I firmly believe that O-line play determines overall team morale. Hey, if you got hit more often than your peers, wouldn't you be less motivated too?

Roethlisberger, Mendenhall and Wallace - PIT got embarassed by the Ravens in Week 1 and nearly lost to IND on Sunday. Their O-line is a mess and their secondary is having trouble covering. Mendenhall's numbers are down and Big Ben is running for his life. For now, I'll trust Mike Tomlin to motivate his players, but I would also start trying to move Mike Wallace if the price is right.

Romo, Jones, Dez and Miles - that O-line looked dreadful on MNF and Romo can't throw the ball that far. Will Dez and Miles become frustrated at the lack of looks and can Felix Jones find enough holes AND deal with a bum shoulder? The only 'winner' on the team is Jason Witten who would benefit from Romo's reduced range. Hmmm... maybe Wallace for Witten straight up?

Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler - as with PIT, the O-lines of CHI and ATL are a mess and the QBs have been getting killed. How long before it affects their level of play? I'll reserve judgment on Mike Smith, but I've already seen enough of Lovie Smith to know he's not motivating this team to rise above this issue.

Mark Sanchez and Dustin Keller - another team with O-line woes, but Rex Ryan is a master motivator. Notice I didn't list Shonn Greene; I think he needs something even Rex can't provide.

Jason Campbell, Run DMC, Jacoby Ford and Darius Moore - ah ha! Trick question! This team IS properly motivated. Even Heyward-Bey is overachieving (for him, anyway).

Eli Manning - I'd say that it pains me to say this, but it doesn't. It's been downhill since Super Bowl 42 and now he looks like a jilted lover who's missing both Kevin Boss and Steve Smith. The Giants, overall, may be 2-1, but how long before his attitude wears thin on the defense? Also, how long before the team as a whole stops listening to Tom Coughlin?

Everything I Know Is Wrong

They say there's nothing more boring than hearing someone talk about their fantasy teams, but I'm hoping this is generic enough to help you with yours and maybe spur some discussion in the comments.

• Where is Ryan Matthews 'On' switch and why didn't he flip it in the pre-season? It would figure the one week I take a chance on Mike Tolbert, Matthews put the final nail in Kool-Aid's coffin.
• I have three teams and we're now in Week 3. I think I've now played AGAINST most combinations of Brady/Welker/NE-tight-end-du-jour, but I'm sure there's one coming in Week 4. So, of course when I try to jump on the gravy train and start Deion Branch in 2 leagues, he posts a big fat zero. What can I learn from this? Post your thoughts in the comments.
• Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and the QB for the Eagles could all conceivably be grievously harmed due to their inept O-lines.
• Furthermore, the only RB who seems to be able to overcome this, on the ground, is Lesean McCoy. At least Matt Forte and Ladanian Tomlinson can contribute through the air. Somewhere in between is Michael Turner.
• Shonn Greene and Adrian Peterson are doing it with smoke and mirrors. I'm not sorry, yet, I traded away AP for Arian Foster and I may try to sell moderately-high on Greene.
• I'll come right out and say it: PPR is really getting on my nerves. It can really help or really hurt. It doesn't seem like there's an in-between.
• Desean Jackson may be the most overrated WR out there.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus: Conclusion

My curiosity satisfied, I made my way out to Pacific Ave. to jitney (yes, I just turned ‘jitney’ into a verb) over to the Borgata. The one bad thing about this plan is that by the time most jitneys make it that far, they’re often full so you have to wait a bit longer. Still, the wait was worth it, both due to the destination and the nice new jitneys all the drivers had to buy. Speaking of the drivers, I don’t know why they get such a bad rep. When I was on line waiting to get back to Pacific from the Borgata, a lot of folks weren’t too happy about the waits and the apparent randomness of their routes. The way I see it, these drivers have to buy their own vehicles, maintain them and fill them with gas which is still over $3.50 a gallon. Then they have to drive them around AC for who knows how many hours with who knows how few breaks, dealing with all sorts of people. All for $2.25 a ride.

The first order of business upon reaching the Borgata was lunch. I scoped out the Buffet and the Cafeteria and ultimately went back to the Buffet so I could make like “Man vs. Food’s” Adam Richman and stuff my face for about an hour for $20 and not have to worry about eating for the rest of the day. I thought they did a halfway decent job of creating a ‘cookout’ theme: they had half-sized hot dogs and burger sliders, along with BBQ chicken, in addition to the foods you’ve come to know and love. Rather than bore you with a lengthy list of what was on the four plates of food (not counting desserts) I enjoyed, I’ll just mention the one mere thing I found lacking – the fried chicken, which didn’t seem to have any seasoning on or in it.

After tipping $2 for what I would call ‘below average’ empty plate cleaning, I waddled outside the Buffet to see if that bank of multi-game machines with 9/6 JoB was still there and it was. I chose a machine on the aisle and had one of the better sessions I’ve had in a long while. I’m talking 3 quads, 5 full houses and a bunch of funky stuff like dealt straights, straights that came about after discarding all 5 cards and things of that nature. While I was never dealt four to a royal, I did end up that way once. I even lasted long enough to get a bottle of Miller Lite! Still, the law of averages being what they are, I was only up $25 after just under an hour of play. Since at one point I was actually up $60, this made things a bit less fun and my rule (borrowed from the Wizard of Odds) is, if you’re ahead, stop gambling if it isn’t fun anymore. Finally, it was a bit after 4 and I wanted to have a nice stroll back down the boards towards Caesars before catching my bus around 6:15 for a 6:40 departure. You might say that leaving was… ‘in the cards’.

The line for the jitney was predictably long, but I had the luxury of time on my side. Eventually, I was back where I started – at a machine outside Toga killing time. This turned out to be a wise decision as I quickly made another $25 thanks to a couple more full houses. I only left when I did because the seat to my right opened up and the incoming resident thought he needed to… I dunno… purify it by fanning it with his hat. Then his wife showed up. Since I didn’t really like where that was heading, I cashed out and made my way to the bus depot.

That’s when things got REALLY interesting, but I already covered that in an earlier post. Luckily, it didn’t impact our departure time at all, as our bus was able to back in down at the end and we were on our way home at 6:40, according to plan. On the way, I had a nice chat with the woman sitting next to me (I attempted to sleep on the way down). Turned out she was a VP player, too, but she went for the high volatility of Double Double Bonus.

I finally got back to KoP around 9:20 and was home by 9:40. All in all, I couldn’t have asked for a better day.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus, Part 2

Hurricane Irene seemed to have done a serious number on the beach north of Caesars. I seem to recall there being hardly any of it across from the Showboat. Well, that is still true now and, what’s more, there’s even LESS of it around where the Sands used to be. I really hope the Army Corp of Engineers comes back next year and dumps some more sand.

Resorts hasn’t changed as much as I had thought, although I guess you can either pay for all you can eat crab buffets or pay to have the art deco décor replaced with something out of Boardwalk Empire. Still, the flapper costumes on the cocktail waitresses are a nice touch and the dealers’ outfits, complete with green visors, provide interesting visuals. One other interesting feature was a group of people marching outside, presumably asking ladies wearing string bikinis to ‘untie them here’. Or maybe it was the union ‘Unite Here’ protesting Resorts, I really couldn’t tell. Their chanting was counter-balanced by placards from Resorts management explaining their side of the story.

A bit further up the boards, Revel is looking good. I couldn’t find any display of what the final product will look like (models, 3d computer images, etc), but I did find a little ‘café’ where you could buy soft drinks, shirts and hats and sign up for their emailing list. They also had some Xbox 360s with the Kinect motion system hooked up, although no one was playing them. I thought about asking the workers where the samples/models/mockups were, but they seemed less than friendly, probably due to being stuck on the northernmost end of the boardwalk on Labor Day weekend.

To be continued...

Trading

I'll have a lot more to say about trading as the traditional deadlines approach in November, but for those of you looking to do something right now, here's my main theory on trading.

Always trade from strength. I don't care if you have the worst team in your league. If you have a stud or two, do NOT give them up. Part of this is psychological: you should have 1 or 2 studs to look forward to watching each week.

The other is mathematical. I feel if you have a guy that can get you 20 points, why trade him for two guys that may get you 10 each (with occasional upside of 15)? Better to keep that guy and 'pair' him with someone who will get you 11. Last I checked, 31 > 30.

And THAT is how I trade. I keep my studs and try to trade my middling guys for someone else's stud. Remember, you can't start everyone. I like overwhelming a guy and then having him have to make a decision each week.

Probably my best example of this was a couple of years ago when I sent SJax AND Mike Sims-Walker (during his 'breakout' season) away for Thomas Jones. My trading partner already had a couple other RBs. He couldn't start ALL of them, so I wasn't really making him better. Plus, I correctly predicted that SJax was just about due for his annual season-ending injury.

Right now, I'm trying to get Andre Johnson for DJax and Harvin. Let's see if the guy bites.

What are YOUR theories on trading?

I'm Asking Myself, "Do I Feel Lucky?"

After 2 weeks of fake football, I'm 0-2, 1-1 and 1-1.

Now, just by looking at the first record, you may think I'm panicking, but I'm not. At least not yet. In Week 1, my opponent caught lightning in a bottle and I only lost this week by 8. I think I have the horses; I just have to get a little more out of them. No major changes are planned, as I just need my luck to change a bit. I don't want to be so 'skillful' that I think myself out of some wins.

My 1-1 teams are beset by injuries. Austin, Bryant, FJones, Foster (yes, Foster; I did end up trading AP for him and now I'm paying for it) are all banged up. And yes, I see the irony in outthinking myself and trading for Foster. I still think, though, that if I can hang around until he gets healthy, I'll be fine. And, more importantly, I think AP falls off a cliff soon, maybe even in Week 3 against the Lions.

My 3rd most important team is the one that concerns me most, as I'm not keeping pace with respect to total points and losing Foster will only make things worse. The first thing I'm doing is benching Schaub for Stafford. Houston seems to have a more balanced O. Detroit, on the other hand, knows they need to air it out b/c Jahvid Best isn't a clock-killer.

Finally, to switch gears over to my survivor pool, I definitely feel lucky about the Redskins win. I think I'll take Week 3 off and take Pitt against Indy.

JMP Hops on the AC Bus - Part 1

I’ve always said that gambling is when ‘desire’ meets ‘opportunity’. Well, opportunity came a-knockin’ on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend, in the form of my wife and kids being on a ‘girls only’ vacation in Lancaster with my mother-in-law. Saturday was actually their ‘go home’ day, but I knew my family wouldn’t get back to the house until around 6 pm. And since my usual runnin’ buddies weren’t able to join me, I saw this as the perfect chance to take the bus and leave the driving (and the increasing tolls) to someone else.

A few things have changed since I last took the bus in 2009. My bus left King of Prussia at 10, not 9, the stops were different and we got 6 hours, not 5, to spend in AC. The price went up by a buck to $26. But perhaps most importantly, the bus was PACKED! Now, maybe the nice weather had something to do with it, or maybe it was the change in the route. Either way, I spent the bulk of my travel time with my seat in its full upright and locked position. “Now everyone can be comfortable,” said the guy behind me after he asked me to put my seat up so his friend had some legroom. Yeah, buddy, you’re not 6’2”.

Oh, one other positive change: we got down to Caesars in about 2.5 hours, so I was on my way to the 9/6 progressive JoB machines by Toga with a $25 slot play coupon by around 12:30 pm. Sadly, that bank has dwindled to six machines and everyone knows about them, so I had to wait a bit for one to open up. Once it did, though, I quickly paid for my travel, thanks to a dealt full house and some other good hands that let me cash out with $30 in real money. I headed North on the boardwalk to check out what Hurricane Irene did to the beach, pop in on Resorts and see their new (to me) Roaring Twenties theme and, finally, see how Revel was coming along.

To be continued...

Surviving Week 2

Instead of trying (and failing) to pick games against the spread (which I only did for fun for the past few years), I'll share my 'survivor pool' pick each week, since I still do that for... more than fun.

I should've posted this last week, but I didn't think of it. Hey, this blog is a work in progress!

Last week, I thought long and hard (heh, I said 'long and hard') about the Browns, but luckily for me I switched to the Cardinals. They gave me a scare for a good part of that game, but pulled through.

Now, I'll go against them, since they're travelling across the country to play the Redskins at 1 pm. I still don't like ARI's O-line and the 'skins have an up and coming D.

In fact, I'm 'streaming' that D in my main fantasy league after kicking ATL to the waiver wire.

Good luck to all my reader! (see what I did there?)

Trench Warfare

Just like in the real game, the fantasy game is decided in the trenches. You won't get much from that stud RB if the line can't block and the passing game won't click if the QB is running for his life.

I didn't watch a lot of football this weekend, but between what I've seen and what I've read, here are some O-line issues to keep an eye on. This early in the season, I'd make decisions based on this rather than individual numbers. Assuming you drafted well, I wouldn't make any rash decisions unless you think the new player will significantly outplay the old one. Remember, those experts are paid to write columns, so they have to hype Cam Newton and Randall Cobb and all. I am not!

• New York Jets: I'll give them a mulligan this week for having to face a Rob Ryan defense and also b/c they seemed committed to the pass and not to the run.
• Dallas Cowboys: ditto, just sub 'Rex' for 'Rob'.
• Minnesota Vikings: I read in the pre-season that they had the 31st or 32nd ranked line and they definitely got exposed by the Chargers. This issue concerns me more, because it's basically Adrian Peterson and no one else. As such, I'm trying to parlay his near 100 yards rushing into a trade with the guy who has Arian Foster. Hey, it could work!
• Atlanta Falcons: I would normally write this off as "they faced the Bears", but when commenters on The Big Lead repeatedly call ATL's line 'hot garbage', I listen. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll find a buyer for Matt Ryan, but if I could, I would think about it. ATL faces quite a few stout Ds in teh coming weeks.
• Pittsburgh Steelers: I believe they were the oldest line in the league and now Colon is gone for the season again. Luckily, Big Ben is great at extending plays by scrambling, so he should be okay. I'm more worried about Rashard Mendenhall, as he has a lot of miles on him.
• Philadelphia Eagles: it doesn't look like they've flipped the switch to 'on' since I talked about this during the pre-season. But, again, Vick and McCoy can overcome.
• New Orleans Saints: GB has a good D and I'll just chalk this up to opening night jitters on the road.
• Indianapolis Colts: the buzz on The Big Lead is that Bill Polian has been screwing up the O-line for years and now, without Peyton, the chickens have come home to roost. If I had any Colts, I'd be selling.

Monday Night Linkability

I'm sitting here watching 2 out of my 3 fantasy leads disappearing (against Brady in one league and Welker in another), so I thought I'd share some links I've been saving up.

AoM article on Viewers vs Do-ers: Perfect for the start of football season, when most people spend hours on the couch each weekend. I would argue that playing FFB makes you more of a 'do-er', as watching the games is like scouting, making trades requires negotiation skills and auction drafts (and some waiver systems) require money management skills.

Chris Christie picks a fight with Vegas: There are probably MUCH better articles out there about this (some of the man-on-the-street quotes were dreadful), but this is the one I saw. I have to be fair - I hated when Obama bashed Vegas so I can't side with Christie here. It's better to say what you do well than what your opponent, allegedly, can't do.

My Power Rankings: A bit late if you needed these for your survivor pool (so, so glad I burned Arizona; I have no desire to ever pick them again). I don't plan on changing them too frequently; I try to avoid knee-jerk reactions. If anything, the Seahawks drop down to the basement since they lost to the previous cellar-dwelling Niners.

How I'm Avoiding the 1 PM Games This Week

As a husband, a father of two and a homeowner, I have to pick my battles. I discovered that there's little point in trying to follow all the 1 pm games. They all kick-off, then they go to commercial. Then the teams spend the first 22 minutes of the game figuring each other out.

There's always something to do and this is the perfect time to get those things done.

Today's project is...

Replacing the DVD drive in our Nintendo Wii. It's not under warranty anymore and apparently, if you leave WiiConnect24 on and leave the unit in standby for too long, the fan never runs. The overheating kills the drive.

Wish me luck!

What the Lists Over On the Right are Not

Hey all, I just want to point out that now that the season has started and most if not all drafts are done, the rankings will not be updated.

I would LOVE for this to be my full time job and I could analyze all the games and adjust every week, but unfortunately, this is a hobby. I also don't want to get involved in analyzing matchups. I shy away from that, for the most part. Your studs should never sit.

You've drafted your teams. You should have an idea who your starters and your backups are. My 'Declaration of Principles' page discusses how to approach the tougher line-up decisions.

When in doubt, though, don't hesitate to ask via a comment to the most recent posting.

Best of luck to us all!

How to Blow 1/3rd of Your Budget on AP and Still Get a Good Team

As you may surmise from the title, I had an auction draft today. It was my first one, despite the fact that I was in the league last year (I had to let the 'bot handle that one and it totally screwed me). I deliberately avoided any articles talking about auction draft strategy for a couple of reasons. One, I had a hunch, based on last year, that this league is different in the sense that people blow their wads early and then have to scrounge around the 'dollar bin' late; I thus figured I could make hay 'in the middle', as it were. Secondly, I've been watching a lot of 'Storage Wars' on A&E, so I figured that was just as good.

Well, it didn't start out so good. Despite IE 8 being just fine for a snake draft, it wouldn't show me the list of players for an auction draft. Panicked, when the 'bot auto-nominated AP for me, I immediately bid $67 (out of $200), figuring I'd either get him or seriously cripple someone else. Well, I got him.

I then switched over to Opera and that made things a lot better. I settled into my strategy: bid up the marquee players and try and get people to overspend early. This worked, for the most part. I bid up players like Peyton Hillis and Darren McFadden; I did end up getting 'stuck' with Larry Fitzgerald for $45, though, so I decided I'd only drive up the spending on players I wouldn't mind having myself. Also, I wouldn't actually nominate players I wanted, choosing instead to nominate Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, etc..

Once my opponents were hurting for cash, I was able to scoop up some awesome talent at considerable value. By the end, when they could only pay $1 for a player, I was able to beat them since I could bid at least $2.

Here's how I did; oh, the league is PPR:

1. Adrian Peterson, $67
2. Larry Fitzgerald, $45
3. Felix Jones, $14 (Yeah, I'm going all in on Felix this year)
4. Tim Hightower, $12 (didn't mind getting stuck with him)
5. Mark Ingram, $9 (ditto)
6. Stevie Johnson, $8 (ditto x 2)
7. Percy Harvin, $8
8. Kevin Kolb, $1 (I nominated him hoping someone else would bite; oops)
9. Dez Bryant, $8 (here's where the plan came together, as now I had the $ to outbid others for players I'd targetted)
10. Matt Schaub, $3 (so, I got my backup QB first and my starter 2nd)
11. Santonio Holmes, $4 (another case of me being flush with cash allowing me to get a good player in a PPR league at a deep discount)
12. Jimmy Graham, $6 (see above)
13. Matt Stafford, $3 (at this point, I didn't know who had which QBs but I wanted to a. play keep away and b. get him as trade bait)
14. Mike Tolbert, $2 (I feel bad for whomever nominated him for a buck only to lose him to me for two! This league favors catches and TDs and he'll give me both.)
15. Johnny Knox, Lance Kendricks, Dustin Keller, Nick Folk, DAL D, $1 each.

Bus Hit by Caesars AC. Film at 11.

Full TR coming later once I've gotten some sleep, but this couldn't wait.

In a shocking display of mobility for a building (especially one the size of a casino), Caesars moved enough to push the awning of the bus depot into a bus. It also pushed the curb up under the front tires.

Witnesses, who I never rely on, claim that the driver either hit the gas instead of the brake or the brakes actually failed, but that's not as big a news story as a building moving.

I have a photo on my disposable camera (my wife took the good camera to Lancaster to shoot pictures of cows), so I'll post that when it's developed.

Luckily, this didn't occur to my bus and I also won $80 playing Jacks or Better at Caesars and the Borgata.

Have a safe Labor Day weekend everyone!