Deconstructing an 'expert': Michael Harmon

Michael Harmon from FoxSports has finally gotten around to ranking some players. There were five articles in all, but if you go here, you'll be able to get to the rest.

He started off fine, with the top 15 QBs. Okay, McNabb was a bit high considering his injury. Vince Young was there, too, even though he's got no RB and no one to throw to except Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe. Vick's even there, although Harmon throws in the obvious caveats. Since there are only 32 starting QBs in the league, it really isn't that hard to find the top 50%. Give him some credit for not including Steve McNair (too old), Jay Cutler (too young) and Matt Schaub (too unproven).

The RB rankings are a little shakier. Brian Westbrook is too low. Frank Gore is a little high, considering Norv Turner's gone. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are WAAAAAY too low, considering they're both unquestioned starters on their respective teams. Marshawn Lynch is #21, which validates what I said about him after the draft.

However (cue the ominous music), Willis McGahee is #11. Yes, you read that right - Willis McGahee just missed being a top 10 back. Here's what Harmon had to say: "His move to Baltimore puts him in a more dynamic offense with more weapons". Okay, then why wasn't McNair in the top 15 QBs? Why isn't Derrick Mason listed as a top 30 WR??? When has Baltimore's offense EVER been dynamic??? See, kids, this is what happens to 'experts' in the FFB article-writing business. They feel the need to make statements like that so at the end of the season, if (big IF) they pan out, they can look back and say "I told you so". Common sense doesn't pay the bills for these guys; 'bold' predictions do. Don't base your entire draft around a 'bold prediction'.

His wide-receiver rankings were just as shaky, but too his credit, they could've been a LOT worse. I initially thought I was going to have a field day here (especially when he ranked Javon Walker #9), but I must admit I had a hard time coming up with something drastically different.

Note I said 'drastically'. There are still a few head scratchers. The most glaring is BAL's Mark Clayton at 23 (ahead of the more proven Terry Glenn, I might add). I have the same problem here that I have with the McGahee rank. Just like every 'expert' has picked the Cardinals for umpteen years in a row to make the playoffs, seems that every fantasy 'expert' likes to pick a few Ravens to have great fantasy seasons. Now, maybe I'm biased b/c I picked Mark off the waiver wire and started him against a porous Bengal's D one night and got nothing to show for it.

Then there's Chris Chambers at #20. Experts have been drinking his Kool-Aid for FAR too long. Maybe if Trent Green ends up in Miami, Chambers is worth a flyer, but he shouldn't be the 20th WR off the board.

No, I'd rather take my chances with these notable omissions: Greg Jennings (GB), Kevin Curtis (PHI), Donte' Stallworth (NE), Mushin Muhammad or Bernard Berrian (CHI) and whomever wins the battle for #2 WR in STL (either Isaac Bruce or Drew Bennett).

To give credit where it's due, though, at least Harmon avoided the following: Joe Horn (ATL), Eddie Kennison (KC) and Nate Burleson (SEA).

To take that credit away again (hey, it's my column and I HAVE to get the last word), he has Deion Branch at #30. Don't YOU make the same mistake!

Some more draft fallout

It's slowly trickling in. John Juhasz has a nice little article, although it's more about what each pick means to the player's REAL team and not what it could mean to your fantasy team. He does go a little more in-depth with respect to Adrian Peterson ("this is going to hurt (Chester) Taylor's fantasy value, but... will be interesting to watch") and Marshawn Lynch ("expect him to start right away... stash him on your bench").

Interesting analysis of Marshawn Lynch here. This guy makes ME look OPTIMISTIC!

Same site, different running back: here are some thoughts on Adrian Peterson. Cliff Notes version: he'll be in a committee and if he stays healthy, he could be like Joseph Addai. But Peyton Manning won't be his QB!!!

Do you REALLY want analysis of Ted Ginn, Jr. (I'm looking at YOU, Dolphin fans)? Okay, well, here it is. You're welcome!

Around the 'net

Okay, now that I've posted my thoughts, I finally have the luxury of going out and seeing what the other 'experts' think. Sadly, there's not much out there. Does that make me the hardest working guy in FFB analysis?

Anyway, I really liked Gregg Rosenthal's article on nbcsports.com regarding the Moss and D-Jax trades. He seems to feel the same way about D-Jax as I do.