Wednesday, October 31, 2007

How'm I doin'? (QBs and WRs)

No errors in judgement with respect to the Top 3: Brady, Manning and Palmer. I'd like to think I was correct with my concern that Brees could fall back down to Earth, as he did for a time. McNabb may have been ranked a bit high, but I think he'll be fine.

If I recall the next 'tier' correctly, it contained guys like Hasselbeck (consistently good and a key member of two of my better teams), Romo (whom I ranked a bit low just in case), Big Ben (performingly nicely in the new offense), Cutler & Kitna (both decent) and... Leinart (oops!).

Next was Vince Young (whom, if 'intangibles' lead to fantasy points, he'd be all-World, but they don't, so he sucks), Eli Manning (decent first half, but he seems to fall apart when the weather gets cold, so the jury's still out), Favre (hey, he looked like crap last year; who knew?) and Grossman (another oops).

Rounding out the pack were guys like McNair (bad), Garcia (much better than advertised) and the usual gang of idiots like Harrington, Leftwich, Schaub and Losman.

All in all, I think I did okay with QBs.

Now, about those WRs.

I don't think anyone could've predicted Randy Moss making the leap up the board that he did. Nor the fall down Harrison and Smith have made. Beyond that, the one guy I'd like to address is Deion Branch (my other man-crush, next to kicker Matt Stover). Before his injury, he was playing up to the level I ranked him (but was always able to draft him in later rounds, creating tremendous value). I'm hoping he returns to form this week.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

How'm I doin'? (updated 10/31)

Those of you who grew up in or around NYC while Ed Koch was mayor may recognize the above question :).

I've resisted the urge up until now to really talk about my four teams. However, now that we're halfway through the real regular season and a bit more than halfway through the fantasy season (assuming playoffs start in week 14), I thought I'd share that info with you, as well as how I think I did with some of my pre- and in-season predictions.

My teams are 6-2, 6-2, 5-3 and.... 2-6. The runt of the litter contains such luminaries as Larry Johnson, Steve Smith and Laurence Maroney. To be fair, I would've had another win had I added Sammy Morris before NE's Monday night game a while back and I DID only lose this past week by 3. Still, the playoffs are just about out of the picture and I now need to save my remaining 4 add/drops to help me in the inevitable 'losers bracket'. The 5-3 team would've also been 6-2 had I not benched Willie Parker for Lamont Jordan, but I already apologized to y'all for that.

Now, as for my pre-season RB rankings (in order, as far as I can recall).

LT2 is still the unquestioned #1. SJax, however, is far from 2nd best, but who could've predicted the mess that the Rams have become? Addai at #3 looked a bit shaky for 3 weeks, but I think he'll be fine. Maroney at #4 was a major oops. Things get hazy now (next year, I'll take a screen-capture of my rankings prior to Week 1), but I think Gore was #5. He played like it for a time, but losing Alex Smith hurt and now Gore himself is hurt. Rounding out the top 10, I seem to recall names like Shaun Alexander (bust), Willie Parker (great, but only 2 TDs), Brian Westbrook (outstanding), LJ (bust early, stud now) and Travis Henry (high).

In the next 'tier' were Edge (decent and now has an easy schedule), Bush and MoJo (coming on), Brandon Jacobs (only now living up to his hype/potential), Ronnie Brown (stud until a torn ACL), Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones (bust, bustier and bustiest). Remember, though, that this tier should've been drafted behind the first tier of QBs and the first 1 or 2 tiers of WRs. So, in other words, the busts shouldn't have gone early. If they did, their owners are probably hurtin' right now.

Below that were the good surprises, like McGahee (has the yards, albeit not the TDs) and Marshawn Lynch (hey, he looked like utter crap in the pre-season) and the predictable flops like Clinton Portis (due to a timeshare). Also the TBDs like Kevin Jones (whom I still maintain would re-injure himself were I to acquire him) and the good Adrian Peterson (who rocketed up my board faster than anyone else).

Bottom line: I was really REALLY wrong about Maroney, but I would like to think my cautious nature on the rest was accurate. Let's face it, if Gore fell to you at #5 or Alexander at ... wherever I had ranked him, you HAD to take him there due to the risk/reward ratio. It sucks that it didn't work out, but hopefully you got something better coming back the other way in Round 2.

You may want to argue that some of these 'busts' were really the result of injuries, such as Gore and Brown. To that I say "I factored injury concerns into my initial rankings, so there!" :)

Tomorrow I hope to tackle QBs and some WRs.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Sportsline's "Start 'em & Sit 'em" Spits the Bit

Now THIS is the Sportsline I remember - telling you to bench studs and start reserves without compuction. Let's take it from the top.

Sit o' the Week: Lamont Jordan
Jamey got one fact right in that TEN DOES have the #1 run D. What he forgets to mention is that Jordan is also very active in the PASSING game. Furthermore, his assertion that Jordan will lose touches to Dominic Rhodes holds no water, as his very own site is reporting that the Raiders ARE CLOSE TO TRADING OR RELEASING RHODES. Now, I'm not sure what this means for this week. Will Rhodes be showcased or will he ride the pine? What I do know is that Jordan is NOT deserving of "Sit O' the Week".

QB Sleeper: Marc Bulger
OH. MY. GOD. I don't care WHOM the Rams are facing and WHOM they've got back at RB. Bulger is hurt and he's shown us NOTHING all year. Bruce and/or Bennett are banged up at WR, too. I would feel VERY stupid about starting Bulger in the face of all this data. Check out where I've got him ranked; I'd feel safer starting "sit 'ems" like Jeff Garcia and John Kitna over Bulger.

Start 'em: Bernard Berrian
Can't mention him without also pimping Muhsin Muhammad.

Sit 'ems: Darrell Jackson, Jeff King, Vernon Davis & Randy McMichael
Really? They're paying you to tell me this? My 8 month old is smart enough to not even have these lugs on her roster let alone start them.

Sit 'em: Rob Bironas
But only because he won't kick 8 this week. Big friggin' deal. If he kicks 2 and 2 XPs, you're fine.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Mmmmm..... leftovers...

One of the many things I didn't get around to last week was addressing this stink nugget from CBS Sportsline's Michael Hurcomb on what to expect to get back for Braylon Edwards:
Since the change of QBs in Cleveland Week 2, Edwards has 503 receiving yards and seven touchdowns... Possible targets would include an underachieving Rudi Johnson, he is bound to break out; Brandon Jacobs, clearly the best running back in New York; Clinton Portis, a little injury prone but racking up touchdowns; or Frank Gore, another guy that is severely underproducing and would be a good bargain at this stage.

Jacobs, yes. Portis, maybe but probably no. Gore, definitely not. I would look at Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, MoJo Drew, Kevin Jones or even a Marion Barber. Remember, don't make your initial offer too low or the other guy will accept without hesitation. You want to negotiate!

Chat(man) Stew (Sooooo Meaty!)

The above is a reference to that show 'The Soup' on E!. It's one of the few shows my wife and I can agree on (the others being The Office, Lost and Heroes and, until recently, House, which I still like but Megan thinks has jumped the proverbial shark).

Obviously the deluge of expert saliva came about because Ronnie Brown went down, leaving Jesse Chatman as Miami's new starting RB. I'll say this: my 'love' for him is higher than it was for Michael Pittman and Justin Fargas a couple weeks ago. I think he's worth an add, but you'd better hold onto your butts when you start him. Each week, I forsee 3 quarters of nothing followed by a decent 4th quarter once Miami's opponent is comfortably ahead. Still, there's nothing wrong with a little garbage time production.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Bless me, readers, for I have sinned...

For starters, I benched Willie Parker (on the road against DEN Sunday night) in favor of Lamont Jordan. Now, the diff is only 6 points between them, but right now it means I'm down by 17 versus 11 with only Reggie Wayne left to play tonight (and my opponent has Anthony Gonzalez, but it looks like Harrison will play).

UPDATE: Wayne goes for 130+ yds (or 13 points) and no TDs (or zero points) and I lose, going from 5-1 to 5-2 and no longer a lock to make the playoffs. Damn it.

What's more, I learned this morning that I've done a pretty piss poor job of scouring the web and bringing the weird stuff to you guys. The Big Lead 'scooped' me on ESPN's Matthew Berry's latest psycho-babble involving a DJ Hackett man-crush and a prediction of doom for all Steelers. I need to make a point to check this out on a weekly basis.

Then there was Bill Simmons' weekly NFL picks column that also doubled as a 'fantasy guide' of sorts. He tried to show how hard it is to have the perfect fantasy season (because, you see, his Pats are going to have a perfect real season, get it?). Let's leave out the fact that his team is stacked, leading me to believe he's in a 6 team league (check out my thoughts on his his pre-season thoughts here) and dissect his thoughts.

Reason #1: Bye Weeks
Okay, yes, you WILL have a week when your #1 RB is off. And another where your #1 QB is off. And one where you'll have to pick up a TE, K or DEF off the waiver wire cuz you should only draft one. But you know what? THAT'S WHAT THE DRAFT IS FOR! A while back I even put a poll up regarding draft strategy and bye weeks, so it's an issue everyone's aware of and should have a strategy for (damn, did I just end TWO phrases with prepositions???). Now, should you get unlucky on draft day, there are trades, as well as waiver wire pick ups. Oh, wait, those are evil too...

Reason #2: The evil waiver wire
While Bill's points are valid, he fails to see things from the 'bad teams' perspetive. FFB is supposed to be fun and, quite frankly, it isn't when your team blows and you have ZERO chance to salvage your season. Sometimes you just get unlucky. This is especially true for money leagues where your dream goes from winning the whole damn thing to maybe, just maybe, getting your entry fee back. What Bill doesn't realize are 1) if a bad team also has a bad owner, chances are he WON'T be submitting claims for those "hot pickups o' the week", meaning the good owners have more of a chance, and 2) there ARE solutions - making waiver claims cost $ is one, while not 'locking down the free agents' at 1 pm on Sundays is another. All the basic Yahoo leagues I'm in keep everything wide open; the only players on waivers are ones who've been dropped recently. The downside of this is people tend to add players as the games are going on. Simmons should have mentioned THIS as well.

Reason #4: Staying Healthy
The simple solution is to have 'team players'. For example rather than drafting Drew Brees, you draft "New Orleans QB".

Reason #6: Screw job trades
Most leagues require the other owners vote on trades. Problem solved.

Reason #7: You need a lot of luck
Hmmm... has Simmons seen my site and my Declaration of Principles? :)

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Bringin' the Lame

You may recall Brad Evans is one of the Yahoo! yahoos who tries to use slick lingo and mockery of those who email to mock him in order to get himself over.

Here is his latest column.

He starts off talking about how to make trades while at a party. While I appreciate him holding off on this till now (everyone else was talking about trades after Week 3), he should've mentioned that some of his advice just doesn't work on-line. Obviously you don't have to worry about alcohol consumption, so I'm talking about the rest of his advice.

2. Be arrogant yet open-minded
This works online, too, with emails, but another tool at your disposal is the "Trading Block". CBS Sportline and Yahoo! both have one, so I'm sure they all do. This takes an EXTRA layer of desperation out, as you're truly just 'throwing stuff out there'. An added benefit is now potential traders KNOW they're in a competition and in a free-market system, competition is good!

3. Don't low ball
I think this really depends on the league. I'm in a league where lowballing is the norm. For example, long story short, prior to Sammy Morris getting hurt, I had a deal in place to get Derrick Mason (the guy needed him b/c of byes). After Sunday, I instead offered Barber. The guy countered by asking for ADDAI!! If you're lucky and NOT in a league where everyone tries to screw everyone, then great, don't low ball. But sometimes you have to 'play the game'. Ideally, you and the other guy will reach a point where you can say "Okay, now that we've established that neither side is screwing the other, consider this fair proposal".

Another reason to lowball is when you really don't have any idea what the other guy would take in return. In the same league, I was interested in a WR, but the guy had a pretty balanced team. I 'offered' Greg Olsen, but put in the note "hey, I would like Engram and I know Olsen isn't enough; take a look at my roster and counter-propose". We ended up not trading, but I think I handled that right. Bottom line: sometimes you don't want to open negotiations with a trade proposal that the other guy can accept right away; sometimes you just want to get his attention.

UPDATE: after following my own advice and putting Marion Barber 'on the block', the aforementioned owner offered Derrick Mason for him. I've accepted the deal.

Brad's column takes a nosedive, though, with his picks of 2 'Fantasy Flames/Lames':

  • Kevin Jones (Flame) - Repeat after me, "there is RARELY a good time to start Kevin Jones". Yes, I'm speaking as a jaded former owner over the past FOUR YEARS. I don't care if Brad "anticipates Mike Martz to feature the ultra-versatile Jones noticeably in the Lions' aerial gameplan. Have faith in him as a No. 2 in all 12-team formats.". I anticipate that Jones will reinjure himself in the first quarter. I'd rather start Brad's "Shocker Special" of Kevin Faulk.

  • Marion Barber (Lame) - I'll admit Brad does have some good points regarding the Vikes' run D. He left out a key bit of info, though: Dallas has gone to a true RBBC, whereby Barber and Jones alternate series. No more "Julius between the 20s and Barber to finish the drive". That's what's kept Barber's numbers down these past couple of weeks and that'll help keep them down even after Week 7 is over.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

"Should be owned in all leagues"?

That's how Rotoworld says a guy is 'good'. Here is an example.

The caveat is that they don't also say "but possibly not by you". I really wish they would give some context as to the 'best' player they would drop in favor of picking up the new player. For example, should I drop DeShaun Wynn to pick up Kenny Watson? Yes? Okay, but should I drop Jerious Norwood? Wait, he's ALSO a "own in all leagues" guy. What do I do?

Yahoo's reaching a bit

Their latest Pickups of the Week are basically everything I created this blog to caution against.

Plug-n-play Joey Harrington after NONE of his receivers seem interested in catching passes and most of the team has mutinied against Bobby Petrino?

Waste a claim on Kevin Faulk when we know NOTHING about the status of Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris? PS: my guess is Maroney starts this week.

Recommend the Saints' Lance Moore WITHOUT also recommending David Patten?

Backhandedly pimp Kyle Boller (against BUF) with the following: "Boller may indeed be the epitome of oafishness – he managed just 184 yards and a pick versus the rancid Rams last week – but he has reasonable odds of racking a 220-yard, two-touchdown day given the encouraging matchup"?

They're seriously reaching, folks. And that just ain't common sensical.

Have you seen Colston or Marion Barber?

If so, please tell them they're killing my fantasy squads.

Marques was last seen run blocking for the Saints during their Sunday night game against Seattle. He caught 1 pass for 2 yards that resulted in a TD (after dropping a similar pass 2 downs prior).

Barber hasn't gotten into the endzone in two weeks and it looks like he's in a true platoon with Julius Jones now (alternating series).

If you've heard any good 'Colston is hurt' rumors, share them in the comments, ok?

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Desperately Seeking Desmond


Curious as to why Desmond Clark isn't listed in Yahoo's TE Rankings for Week 6, but Greg Olsen is. Are they THAT enamored with the He-Man look-alike?

In other sites' rankings, Clark and Olsen are usually ranked together, just below Owen Daniels. This seems weird, as Daniels has to go on the road to face JAX while the Bears are at home. I'm guessing the 'experts' think that Clark and Olsen are going to split the looks, while Daniels is all by himself.

Still, I think I made the right call by dropping Daniels for Clark. I later picked up Olsen, but I plan to start Clark due to his overall experience as well as his past history with Brian Griese.

This means you all should go out and start Olsen, btw :)

Sunday Night Update: Daniels lead the trio with 5 rec for 79 yards, Olsen was 2nd with 5 for 63 and Clark brought up the rear with 3 for 48. The lesson? Daniels is legit.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Holy crap, I've been thinking this for the past 3 weeks!

I'm not the only one!

Around the web o' crap

Below par edition of East Coast Offense this week, punctuated by a recommendation to go out and grab Kellen Clemens along with this:
Lee Evans will make a major impact as the season goes on, no matter who's playing quarterback.

Yes, he'll make a major impact to your roster if you continue to start him. Last I checked, owners don't get points for the # of times he was a decoy.

He also goes out a limb (no, really, that wasn't sarcasm) with this prediction:
At least one of Reggie Brown, D.J. Hackett or Mark Clayton will have a big second half of the season.


Of course, I could just be bitter because he offers no help with my suicide pool, recommending the Ravens, whom I already used in Week 2 against the Jets.

Then there's this 'article' on MSN FoxSports. The author pretty much set himself up to fail, though, with this openning:
Being a fantasy geek isn't easy.

... and writing about it is even harder for you, it seems. Even the usual gang of FoxSports commenters have passed on this article as 'too easy', it seems (only one comment yet the article's a day old).

Then there's the usual stuff from CBS Sportsline. For example:
One-week sleeper: Reggie Brown (at NYJ). This is the week Brown gets going. He only has eight catches for 81 yards this season and no touchdowns. But coming off the bye, look for the Eagles to start getting Brown more involved in the offense.

We talked about the 'shouldas', 'couldas' and 'wouldas', right?

Also, McNabb is their 'Start of the Week' (another 'Frick on a Stick with a Brick' moment for me, since I have him in my most important league) and they recommend starting Brian Griese, figuring that since CHI can't run on MIN, they'll throw and throw and throw. The logic is sound, I admit, but remember the QB in question IS Brian Griese. I would look for other options first. (Full disclosure: I'm starting one of the CHI TEs on Sunday, just not sure which one, yet). Sticking with the Second City, Cedric Benson is their 'Sit of the Week', which I DO agree with.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Buyer beware

All the cliches I warned about around Week 1 can be found in this latest Pickup of the Week column at Yahoo.

Recommending a WR b/c he's 'small and fast' and/or is 'the man'? Check (Dennis Northcutt - a two-fer!).

Citing obscure stats? Check (so what if WAS is giving up a lot of catches to RBs; should you still plug-n-play Vernand Morency?).

Still, it's a much easier read than MSN FoxSports' Roger Rotter's latest shotgun blast o' analysis.

Just be careful out there, okay?

You'd think I'd have learned by now

Decided to start Marion Barber over Kenton Keith yesterday. Part of the 'problem' is that I wasn't going to have PC access around 3:30 when the word on Addai should've come down and I wanted to be safe.

Instead, I should've realized that I made the same mistake before and started a visting player going into the hostile environment only a primetime game can bring. Barber didn't have a BAD game, but he didn't have a great one, either.

Last year it was starting Mark Clayton in Cincinatti on a Thursday night rather than TJ. This year, at least, it didn't cost me the win (although the extra points could be needed for tiebreakers later).

Friday, October 5, 2007

Pet Peeve and best... Yahoo!... article... ever

Anyone else sick of Yahoo! having the little icon next to a player that means 'new news', only to click on it merely to learn that "x has been nominated for y award"?

Yeah, me too.

They make up for it with this edition of East Coast Offense, which I couldn't find a link to and instead had to Google it. Best line:
when you get things totally wrong, (as you no doubt will) you should doubt yourself. Don't immediately substitute another set of stupid assumptions for your previous mistaken ones. The process by which you choose your new assumptions is the same flawed one. Keep a very loose grip on what you think.

Sit of the Week: Frank Gore?

Frank Gore is CBS Sportsline's 'Sit of the Week'. They point to his numbers not being where they were a year ago at this time and to the downgrade in QB.

The way I see it, though, if you drafted Gore, your 2nd RB is probably someone like MoJo Drew, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson (all underachievers), Reggie Bush (ditto BUT will get more carries), Rudi Johnson (bye), Willis McGahee (has the yds but few TDs) or maybe even a Marion Barber III. MBIII is the only one I'd start over Gore.

Yes, the 49ers are playing the Ravens, but their D isn't elite as in the past. Baltimore doesn't have a great offense, so the 49ers should find themselves with the ball often. SOMEONE has to carry the offense and it's not Trent Dilfer. I can definitely see Gore putting the team on his back with 75+ yds rushing, 40+ yds receiving and 1 or 2 total TDs.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Justal Pittgas

I simply do not have the time to link to every article stating that you need need NEED to go out and claim either Michael Pittman or, to a lesser extent, Justin Fargas.

As you can probably guess from the title, I'm not really all that impressed with either. Pittman has burned me a number of times over my short FFB career, either as a waiver wire pickup or as a draftee. I seem to recall a game where he ended up benched in favor of someone named Jamel Cook (correct me if I'm wrong).

Fargas, well, give the experts credit for having a little common sense. They'll acknowledge that Dominic Rhodes is due back in Week 6, but they're still a little too high on Huggy Bear's son. Fargas has done this for a couple of years now - take over in the fourth quarter and run well (after the primary back wore down the D for 3+ quarters). He never looks as good again.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go put a waiver claim in on Kenton Keith to backup Joseph Addai *sigh*.

Monday, October 1, 2007

Lesson Learned (the hard way)

Learned about an hour ago that Yahoo! won't let you add a player for the current day's game. When I learned that Maroney wasn't going to play, I tried to add Sammy Morris for tonight and couldn't.

Memo to self: be pro-active and add him the night before.