Another disturbing trend...

This one can alternatively be called "throw it all against the wall and see what sticks", as well as "upgrade everyone, downgrade everyone else".

The biggest offenders of this are the MSN FoxSports crew of Mike Harmon and Roger Rotter. We've already discussed their nearly identical Sunday wrap-up columns. What I didn't realize is that during the middle of the week, one or both put out their rankings for the following week. Sadly, I can't find the article(s) right now, but it was similar to something I saw there back during pre-season: the top 40% of the QBs/RBs/WRs were 'starters', the next 10% were 'sleepers' (that you should still start) and the remaining 50% were 'duds'. They'd have just as much 'success' with these picks if they'd just write all the names on the wall and take a shotgun to them!

Another offender is CBS Sportsline's Jamey Eisenberg (he's NOT the big/smart one). He does the weekly Start/Sit of the Week. They tend to be pretty fair, although this week his WR section is pretty weak. His Starts include a bunch of guys who excelled last week: Driver, Curtis, Chambers, McDonald, while his Sits include a bunch of guys who haven't done anything all season: Evans, Horn and Crayton. Gee Jamey, why not just find the #5 receiver on, say, the Cardinals and list him, too?

A surprise offender is Yahoo!'s John Hansen (also of FantasyGuru.com); it's a surprise because he was much better last year. His latest column is another 'shotgun' to the roster board. In fact, the only guy who doesn't seem to upgrade/downgrade is DeShaun Foster and he actually makes a big deal out of that! I wonder if Yahoo! knows this and buried his column this week. I had a real tough time finding it just now, as opposed to yesterday.

So, to sum up, we've got two disturbing trends: 1) bad humor and 2) a kitchen sink approach. The way this is going, by week 5, every columnist will just be throwing tons of jokes against the proverbial wall, with no viable fantasy advice to be found.

All Art and (Bringin' The) Noise, Signifying Nothing

Bad, bad column by Yahoo's Brad Evans this week. Let's dive in:

Outstanding defenses in 2006 that are now benign matchups: Miami (vs. Run/Pass)

One check of Yahoo's own Total Defense rankings shows that Miami is only weak against the RUN.

Pennington will dismantle the Bills with his super ginger powers.

I don't speak jive. Any of you speak jive?

Fantasy Lame - Matt Hasselbeck

Brad cites how well San Fran's pass D has done these past 3 weeks, but neglects to mention those were against Arizona (Leinart; nuff said), St. Louis (dwindling O-line and a QB with cracked ribs) and Pittsburgh (still learning their new O but Big Ben still threw a TD and no INTs). Seattle has a balanced offense that uses the run to set up the pass and that'll work just fine.

But I've saved the worst for last...

Fantasy Lame - Marvin Harrison: if I had to decide between him and, say, McDonald (vs. Chi), Jennings (at Min), Derrick Mason (at Cle), or Wes Welker (at Cin), Harrison would be the odd man out

Man, oh, man... how STUPID would you feel if Harrison goes off against DEN but was on your bench? Especially if you sat him for DERRICK MASON?!!! What makes this even worse is that at the top of the article, he says, "Thou shalt never sit thy studs even in an unfavorable matchup."

As I mentioned last week, Brad is one of the Deadspin-esque writers at Yahoo! I think he's lost his way a little bit and sadly, based on how he responds to some of his email, I don't think he'll find it again soon.

To CBS Sportsline's Dave Richard: Gotcha!

Click here to view a previous post of mine and check out the first part regarding Steve Smith.

Okay, now check out this quote from his latest 'Fantasy vs. Reality':

Fantasy: Steve Smith is the engine of the Carolina offense. It looks like DeShaun Foster is far and away the better running back for the Panthers

I TOLD you all Dave would waver on something involving Carolina, although I thought it would be on Delhomme. Nevermind the fact that Smith is ALWAYS a threat; even if he's not making catches, he's baiting DBs into pass interference penalties that still move the ball down the field.

If I didn't know any better, I'd say Dave has it in for Delhomme. He's willing to give credit to anyone BUT the guy. It'll be interesting to see what he'll say next week if David Carr steps in and has a half-decent game. Or if Jake does play and, say, TE du jour Jeff King grabs a TD, maybe Dave will annoint HIM as the 'engine'.

While I'm on his case, Dave goes on to say the following about how to handle bye weeks:

Make a play for the Bengals your team(s) needs after next week's games and play the bye-week waiver-wire game in Week 5, then coast with your Bengals for the rest of the season. Do the same with the Chargers, whose bye is in Week 7.

There's nothing wrong with giving up a smidge in a deal to get a player with a late bye week.

Sorry, but IMHO, the time to deal with bye weeks was back during your draft. Want proof? Look over on the right. I never ranked Ks and DEFs, telling you instead to just pick the best one with the latest bye week. Do NOT go out there and make wacky trades just so you can "get some Bengals". I said it once and I'll say it again: trades are VERY observable. Don't be stupid in front of your entire league just because of bye weeks.

You are what you are

After 2 weeks were in the books, I was hesitant to make major changes over on the right.

Now that we're through 3 weeks, I have no such problems. Studs are solidifying their positions. Sleepers are proving their staying-power. Busts are dropping like rocks.

The one wrinkle in all this is injuries. I spent much of Sunday without Internet access wondering about some key players across my teams: Brian Westbrook, Lamont Jordan and Plaxico Burress. I ended up starting the first two, but 'played it safe' and started Jerry Porter instead of Plax. "Hey, he's playing CLEVELAND", I thought. Well, this is where common sense should've kicked in. Once I heard through the grapevine that Plax would play, I should've inserted him. It was a big game for the G-men and Plax is a big player. On the other side of the coin, it was a meaningless game for Oakland and Porter's proving to be a meaningless player. I should've rolled with Plax. Luckily, it didn't cost me the W... THIS time.

CBS Sportsline Newz U Kan't Uze

There's more on the website, but here are some of the headlines and 'stories' that showed up in my mailbox:

• "'Marion the Barbarian' ready for Bears" - Gee, I hope so b/c if he was ready for the Dolphins, he'd be in for a shock.


• "Garcia 1-9 all-time vs. Rams" - I don't care if he can beat them; he can throw for 400 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs and lose for all I care. How does this help me?


• "McNabb looks to repeat success vs. Lions" - I'm glad he's not going to mix things up and planning to fail (although he may do so accidentally).


• "Addai should find success vs. Texans" - if there's one thing Sportsline is good for, it's "couldas", "shouldas" and "wouldas". Now, in THIS case, you should go with it. If it was, say, Cedric Benson, I'd be a little more skeptical. My favorite is when they try to predict the flow of the game. They'll say something like "we expect Rex to take some shots down field which will open up the running lanes for Benson" (just because you open up a lane doesn't mean Cedric will run through it). Until they prove that they also have a machine that lets them see the future, don't buy into it!

Frick on a stick with a brick!

Matt Hasselbeck is the CBS Sportsline "Start of the Week". I have him on 2 of my four teams. Sportsline (specifically Jamey Eisenberg) haven't done a good job with these picks. Week 1 was Deuce and last week was Adrian Peterson (who had about 100 total yards, a few catches and no TDs).

Oh, and yes, I like Scrubs. Specifically Sarah Chalke.

Disturbing.... errr... interesting trend

I'm sure the 'experts' have been getting 'hate mail' for years now, but this is the first year they all seem to be including the 'best' ones in their columns. Then they try to be hip/witty/edgy/whatever and respond.

Yahoo's got Bringin' the Noise, CBS Sportsline has "Backward hat wearing idiot #3" (or is it #2 since I deemed Dave Richard 'the smart one') and even Rotoworld has gotten into the fray by hiring Deadspin contributor and Philadelphia Magazine writer, AJ Daulerio.

What's causing all this? My guess is the blogosphere. Fantasy sites, in an attempt to seem 'cool', have either directed their writers to turn at least one of their weekly columns into a clone of a Deadspin comment section or, in Rotoworld's case, that they just hire a Deadspin guy outright.

So it's bad enough that these guys have a certain amount of space to fill and for years had done it with "Flames and Lames" or "Starts and Sits of the Week", but now they're trying to be funny, as well. Well, that's just great.

Make me a promise, readers (all 2 of you). If I EVER start sounding like one of those guys, let me know ASAP.

And if I ever give bad advice, let me know politely and I'll respond in kind. Remember my goal here: to make YOU aware of the bad 'advice' out there so you can stick to your guns, stay true to yourself and make your own decisions. I rank players over on the right because it's kinda fun, but I encourage you to come up with your own rankings and use THAT to make your lineup decisions.

Regarding trades

Sorry for the boring title, but "<jim mora voice>Trading?! You're talking about trading?! Trading?!</jim more voice>" wouldn't fit :).

Now that two weeks of the season are in the books, the 'experts' have broken out their "how to trade if you're 0-2 and hate your team" advice.

Yahoo offers these words of wisdom, while (if you can speak jive) MSN FoxSports offers this.

The tunes are basically the same: if you're 0-2, trade NOW! That's great if you're living in fantasy land. Oh, wait, we ARE in fantasy land. I mean fantasy fantasy land. But we're really in reality fantasy land, and in this land, trades are harder to pull off than you might think. Maybe I've just been in the 'wrong' leagues, but trades have been few and far between these past few years. I think what we're seeing that even the newbies are wisening up to the sharks and slamming the doors on any and all trade proposals. This is a shame because a proposal is just that and it SHOULD open the door to a negotiation. But again, that generally only happens in 'fantasy fantasy land'.

What you need to do if you're 0-2 (or even a very lucky 1-1) is be patient. You drafted your team of stars and, sadly, flops. You aren't going to get diddly-poo (what IS it with me and Jim Mora Sr. tonight?) for the flops and you'll look like an fool if you trade a star for a non-star (yesterday I turned down trading Barber III and Colston for Tatum Bell and Galloway, which is really 2-for-1 cuz Bell ain't worth squat). Remember, trades are VERY observable. They're most memorable to you and the guy who fleeced you, but others will notice as well.

Instead, work the waiver wire. Replace your flops with up-n-comers and see if you can trade them, but be patient. A shark knows a flash-in-the-pan when he/she sees one. You may have to package such a player with the star to get 2 players back that help you more. You may have to wait for a team to have a dire need for a player only you can provide (for example, if you've been stockpiling TEs; I don't advocate that, but it worked for me my first year doing FFB b/c I was able to parlay a marginal TE into Johnnie Morton (KC WR) and that was enough to turn 2-9 into 6-10).

Yes, you may go 0-3, but FFB can be streaky. The fantasy playoffs are still 11 weeks away and you can still grab that last seed. Just don't be stupid along the way. You may not have a win, but you'll still have your pride.

(Note: one of my pet peeves are people who, instead of rejecting a proposal, simply never respond. So if you're offered a bad trade, at least hit the 'Reject' button. As Skeletor said in that Robot Chicken sketch, "It's common courtesy!")

McNabb, Leftwich and a 7th round RB named Wynn

It occurred to me that after I advised 'anonymous' below to start McNabb over Bulger, I still had Bulger rated higher over on the right. I had meant to promote Donovan over Marc, which may sound silly, but bear with me. Bulger's operating behind a makeshift O-line, SJax hasn't gotten going yet and Isaac Bruce is not going to get 140+ yds every week. McNabb, OTOH, has a good O-line, Westbrook is running strong and his receivers will come around. I know it sounds bass-ackwards, but starting McNabb, against most D's, is the right move.

I am still coming to terms with all the man-love being thrown at a RB in Green Bay who's going to lose his job soon. Contrast this with the man-hate, or maybe just man-apathy, being shown Byron Leftwich.

I get that RBs win fantasy titles, but 7th round RBs going against tough run defenses do not. Do you really want to grab Wynn for the sake of saying you grabbed him?

I'd rather take my chances with Kevin Jones... again... than Wynn.

Hey FoxSports, I could mine the box scores, too, and I'll do it for 1/2 their pay

FoxSports' Mike Harmon's recap post is more enjoyable b/c of the two comments at the end than b/c of the actual article. I can't believe he got paid for it, especially considering Roger Rotter submitted a nearly identical column!!!. *shakes head in disbelief*

Deconstructing an expert: CBS Sportsline's Dave Richard

Man, the year I decide to start a blog to take these guys down, they finally start employing some common sense. Dave Richard had two decent postings today: a 'recap' column and his usual 'Fantasy vs. Reality' one. The latter one bears watching, though, because he will probably start contradicting himself next week. For example, this week he says:

Fantasy: Jake Delhomme is back, baby!

Get it? It's 'fantasy' because the real credit should go to Steve Smith. As a Steve Smith owner, I don't really care. Just you watch, though; one bad game from Jake and Dave will post a "Reality: Delhomme stinks" blurb. Bank on it.

In his other column, he has 3 waiver wire recommendations. The first one, though, reads like an example of "how not to piss off an NFL running back":

DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay: I'm not a huge fan of Wynn -- he had 12 yards on nine carries before breaking off a 38-yard run -- but it appears that he's going to be a part of the Packers' RB rotation, at least until Vernand Morency comes back. Who knows when that will be. I'd pick him up in all leagues just for depth on the bench.

So he's 'not a huge fan', he'll lose reps when Morency comes back, but *I* should pick him up in ALL leagues? Why not tell me who the best player you'd drop for him would be? Should I drop... oh, I dunno... DeShaun Foster for him? I honestly don't know; tell me!

He also says you should replace an underachieving WR with TEN's Roydell Williams, who will probably start underachieving himself in Week 3.

All in all, though, Dave does a good job of preaching patience with guys like LJ, Kool-Aid, Mojo Drew and SJax.

Ummm... oops?

Well, if anyone was keeping track on my "Travis Henry vs. Laurence Maroney" theory, here are the facts:

Henry finished with 128 rushing yards and 2 catches for 8 yards. Cecil Sapp vultured a TD from him. Selvin Young also got in on the act.

Kool-Aid finished with 77 rushing yards. Most of it came in the fourth quarter and Sammy Morris vultured a TD, after Maroney did the bulk of the work getting NE down to the 3 yard line. This bears further watching.

What the experts will be talking about on 9/17

• Carolina's Drew Carter and Jeff King again (although, as a Vernon Davis owner, 'the King' is looking mighty tempting)


• CIN's 'G. Holt' (5 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD)


• CLE's Joe Jurevicius (4 rec, 44 yds, 2 TD)


• ATL's Roddy White (4 rec, 81 yds) - you know who his QB is, right?


• JAX's Reggie Williams (2 rec, 41 yds, 1 TD) - Wasn't he 5th on the depth chart???


• PIT's Nate Washington (3 rec, 60 yds) - I think Ben's spreading the ball around TOO much


• BUF's Roscoe Parrish (6 rec, 56 yds) - I think he got much of this once PIT had the game well in hand


• NO's David Patten (2 rec, 66 yds) and L. Moore (3 for 46) - something's 'not right' in the Big Easy right now


• TB's Ike Hilliard (2 for 51) - he's still in the league?


• TEN's Roydell Williams (4 for 72, 1 TD) and Brandon Jones (5 for 57)


• DET's Shaun McDonald again

Deconstructing an 'expert': FoxSports' Roger Rotter

It's kinda like shooting fish in a barrel, but I need content... badly. :)

Roger Rotter's latest article ranges from the 'no duh' to the 'headscratcher'. He's got a 'Cannot Bench List' containing the usual suspects like Peyton and LT2 and... Cedric Benson??? The same guy who did nothing against a great run D? He's also got Lee Evans, which I'll admit I'm torn on. I've never had the guy, but he seems like the kind of player who'll haul in a 78 yard TD bomb in garbage time, giving JP Losman an even 100 yards passing on the day. Still, I have a hard time looking past Losman being his QB.

A bit further down, he's got some 'projections' and he's got Maroney all the way down there at # 27, behind such notables as Ladell Betts and Brandon Jackson and tied with backup Jesse Chatman. I think Roger and a lot of other 'experts' are forgetting that Kool-Aid only has one real pre-season game under his belt and he ran well during it (I'm guessing he took the final game off). They're also pointing to the Heath Evans TD in garbage time and wondering "why wasn't Maroney in there?". Umm... you just answered your own question; it was GARBAGE TIME!

Mark my words, this Sunday night if a NE WR gets tackled at the 1 yard line (or there's pass interference in the end zone) and the game hasn't been decided yet, Maroney (not Sammy Morris and not Heath Evans) will be in there every snap. He's taking Dillon's role, people! Big players make big plays in big games and this Sunday night is a big game. Contrast this to, say, Travis Henry, who plays at home against OAK (Roger has Henry listed as his #1 RB this week). Call me crazy, but I can envision Henry and the Broncos taking this game a little too lightly and sleepwalking through most of the game. Henry will finish with 20 carries for 87 yards (no TDs) and the experts will be scrambling Monday morning. Meanwhile, Kool-Aid will get a TD early and then go over 100 late as the Pats run out the clock.

Ooooh, here's another one: Alex Smith is #12, meaning Roger thinks he'll do better than Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme, two veteran QBs. I could go on, but what's the point?

Vacation Over!

You know how people say they need a vacation to recover from their last vacation? That's why I've been gone for about 2 weeks. I followed up my 3 day Vegas trip with a quick weekend at home and then 4 days & 3 nights down the Jersey Shore (Wildwood Crest, to be precise). The hotel had a free Internet cafe', so if my one reader is around and wondering how I updated the rankings, well, that's how.

Full Disclosure
I went 2-2 last weekend. One loss was a blowout (only Addai and Westbrook showed up, while my opponent had guys like Kitna, Witten and the SD DEF) and one was a 4 point loss (I could be angry at a host of players, such as Leinart or Deion Branch).

About those CBS Sportsline guys
Jamey Eisenberg's 'Start of the Week' is Adrian Peterson, with no mention of how poorly last week's Start (Deuce) fizzled. I think this pick is pure man-crush. You have to also realize that they're playing the Lions in Detroit, so there's a possibility Martz, Kitna & Co. take to the air and get out to a lead before MIN knows what hit them (MIN has a good *run* D, not so great against the pass). This will pretty much take away their running game and I'm not convinced based on one 60 yard screen pass against ATLANTA that Adrian is a pass-catching back. Plus, who's the MIN QB? Tavaris Jackson? On the road? 'Nuff said.

His "Sit of the Week" is LJ, which I kinda sorta agree with, although it would've been nice if he had said LJ may do all right in PPR leagues.

I don't have time to go through the rest of the projections. Watch out for the 'couldas' and the 'shouldas', okay? Be careful out there!

I'm actually fairly close to labelling Dave Richard "the smart one" (he's already got the label of 'the big one'). His Fantasy/Reality wasn't bad and he had a comment a while back saying Colston would be a bust, which I endorse (didn't stop me from drafting him when I was in Vegas though *groan*).

What the 'experts' will be talking about

I'm hoping this will be a regular segment where, every Sunday night, I try and guess which players (WRs, mostly) the 'experts' will urge us to go out and claim off the waiver wire. Here are my guesses for Week 1 (fyi, I have read ZERO 'Sunday wrap-up' columns at this point; you'll just have to take my word for it).

• Marcus Pollard (SEA TE): 5 rec, 43 yards.


• Bobby Engram (SEA WR): 3 rec, 64 yards.


• Shaun McDonald (DET WR): 6 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD.


• Mike Furrey (DET WR): 5 rec, 52 yards.


• Ronald Curry (OAK WR): 10 rec, 133 yards, 1 TD.


• Drew Carter (CAR WR): 3 rec, 19 yards, 2 TD.


• Jeff King (CAR TE): 5 rec, 35 yards.


• Wes Welker (NE WR): 6 rec, 61 yards, 1 TD.


• Roddy White (ATL WR): 4 rec, 29 yards.


• Dennis Northcutt (JAX WR): 4 rec, 57 yards.


• Jason Avant (PHL WR): 3 rec, 54 yards, 1 TD.


• Brandon Marshall (DEN WR): 5 rec, 52 yards, 1 TD.

The words will all be the same. If the receiver is tall, they'll say the receiver has a height advantage over most corners. If he's small, they'll say he's quick and/or elusive. They'll talk about how the other WRs higher up on the depth chart will 'open things up' for this guy (ex: "Steve Smith will really open things up for Carter and King"). Or maybe they'll use the worst phrase of all and say that he's "clearly the man". Example: "with 4 catches for 57 yards, Northcutt is now clearly the man in Jacksonville". Do you REALLY want 'the man' in JAX or ATL?

What you need to decide is whether or not there's room on your roster for one of these players after just a week. Remember our mission: don't look stupid.

Deion Branch had better be dead

I'm a forgiving guy. I can take McNabb being held under 200 yards (even though it'll mean I lose to a guy who started Kitna). I can forgive Westbrook dropping a couple easy passes. I can even forgive Colston a bit, since I knew he would fall back down to Earth.

What I can't forgive is getting a goose-egg from a former Super Bowl MVP.

Changing Gears

Well, I'm back. Welcome to all who found this site b/c of the shout out from The Big Lead. If you're wondering where the content's been, it was with me in Las Vegas! My lovely wife let me do a solo trip out there to take advantage of a great offer from Bally's. I came home a mere $20 lighter than when I left. I also did my last fantasy draft from an "internet cafe" in a strip mall across the street from the Monte Carlo.

Now that the season has started, I'm hoping that this site will finally begin to look like what I envisioned: a place to contradict all the 'expert' advice out there with clean, simple common sense. The main difference is that I'm going to try my best not to let matchups dictate line-up decisions. I don't know about you, but I've been burned too many times by benching a stud going against an 'elite' D and instead going with someone labelled as the 'start of the week' due to the matchup. Remember, big players make big plays in big games. What I've done over on the right is rank players based on a matchup-agnostic "whom would you rather have?" methodology. Another way to look at it would be "how stupid would I feel for starting X over Y if Y is the one who has the better game?".

Speaking of 'start of the week', Deuce was CBS Sportsline's for Week 1 and I think we all know how that went. Had I seen that in time, I would've posted sooner... honest!

For all of you using FoxSports for your leagues, I'm sorry to hear about the recent troubles with the site. If you don't know what I'm talking about, click here and scroll down to the comments. Fox Sports now has the worst 'league site' to go along with the worst 'advice site' in the business. Great job, Fox!

CBS Sportsline writer confuses dolphins for sharks

Jamey Eisenberg obviously thinks he'll get attacked if he says anything bad about any Miami players.

On the sliding Ronnie Brown

You still have to think of Brown as a No. 2 Fantasy option because of his talent, but lower your expectations of how good he will be this season.

I've got Ronnie ranked at #17, so I guess he COULD be a team's 2nd RB if the manager is intent on going RB-RB in the first two rounds. Still, there are a bevy of WRs and QBs (and a certain TE named Gates) that I'd take before Mr. Brown.

On Trent Green

If Green can stay healthy, he could be productive for the Dolphins and a decent No. 2 Fantasy QB.

The only league I'm in where Trent Green was drafted was my 8 team league where you start 2 QBs and the manager promptly cut Trent when David Garrard was elevated to 'starter' in Jacksonville. 'Nuff said.

On TE David Martin

Martin could eventually be a starting Fantasy TE for a lot of owners.

'Eventually' translating to "end of the season when the Chargers have nothing to play for and Gates takes a couple of weeks off".

Heaven forbid a CBS Sportsline FFB 'expert' tells it like it is.