- Plaxico Burress to NYJ: Another weapon for Mark Sanchez, albeit one who's been out of the game for a few years, unless they had a team in prison. Not sure what to make of this yet, other than NYJ pre-season games become 'must see TV'.
- Mike Sims-Walker to STL: Good, tall WR who's battled injuries his entire career. Goes to a team with a second-year QB, Sam Bradford, and they'll both have to come up to speed VERY quickly on Josh McDaniel's offense without the benefit of OTAs and such. This will be an interesting situation to watch throughout the pre-season.
- Todd Heap to ARI: Todd's getting up there in years but he'll be far from the primary option, especially if the Cards get Braylon Edwards. Kevin Kolb loves throwing to TEs and his injury last year submarined what should've been Brett Celek's breakout year. Let's stay in the desert and talk about...
- Tim Hightower to WAS: this forces me to rank Beanie Wells as a first- and second-down back in "The National Football League" (tm Jaws). As you can see by where he ranks, I don't think much of his ability. In fact, the 'zona RB I've ranked ahead of him, Ryan Williams, will be the pass-catching RB. I think Beanie will put him in a good position to succeed, what with his '2 yards and a cloud of dust' ability.
- James Jones back to GB: He of the inconsistent hands has submarined Jordy Nelson's potential for yet another season. Neither looks appealing now.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Sunday Drive
Thursday, July 28, 2011
More Floodgate Fallout
- Chad Ochocinco to NE: I LOVE this deal. Chad vaults way up my draft board. I don't think he'll be as good as Randy Moss was in his first year catching passes from Tom Brady, but I think it'll be in the same ballpark. Now if I can just figure out who starts at RB for them. I've got BenJarvis Green-Ellis ranked as if he'll be the one.
- Kevin Kolb to ARI: I like this deal, but not as much as I love the prior one. I had Larry Fitzgerald ranked as if ARI would get someone good, so he's not moving. My one concern is Kevin will have little time to learn a new playbook.
- Greg Olsen to CAR: Assuming Cam Newton follows the rule of thumb involving young QBs and TEs, Olsen should be okay.
- Lance Moore re-ups in NO: I like him in PPR leagues now that Reggie Bush is a Dolphin.
- Reggie Bush to MIA: this will sound like a cop out but I really don't know what to make of this yet. MIA's been moving away from the Wildcat and will most likely land Kyle Orton. I guess he gets a bump in leagues where return yardage/TDs count. I'll get back to y'all on this.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Floodgates! They are Open!
Here are my knee-jerk (emphasis on 'jerk') reactions to some/most of the moves that have happened:
- McNabb to MIN: I really didn't think the Vikes would go into the season with Ponder as their starter. I thought they'd either get Kolb or get Favre to come back. Still, I think it'll be enough to keep opposing D's honest and they do play the AFC West this year. I'll reinsert Schianco towards but not at the bottom of the TE rankings, mainly b/c I don't recall McNabb utilizing his TEs all that much in Philly but it looks like Cooley was serviceable in PPR leagues last year. AP stays where he's at, though, b/c I still like Arian better and the Vikes lost a playmaker...
- Sidney Rice to SEA: this hurts everyone in terms of fantasy points, although I guess it's a win for Sidney's wallet. He could've been catching passes from DMac (come on, not ALL of them would've ended up at his feet) but will now probably end up trying to catch them from Tavaris Jackson. Meanwhile, back at the ranch that is the Metrodome, Percy Harvin rises.
- Matt Hasselbeck to TEN: he takes over the 'caretaker' role that Kerry Collins filled relatively well lately. CJ2K doesn't take a hit.
- Deangelo Williams stays in CAR: bad for him, bad for J-Stew, and MAYBE good for Knoshown Moreno in DEN b/c DWill, when healthy, would've torn up the AFC West.
- Steve Breaston to KC: maybe this will keep some of the heat off of Dwayne Bowe, but I still don't trust Haley.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
WRs and Their Multiple Points of Failure
Now that the NFL is offically back (was there really any doubt?), players will be moving faster than ever before. Before that happens and I shift into analyzing specific moves, I have a few more general things to talk about.
One of them is why I'll never take a WR in the first round and probably not the second round ever again. Heading into the 2004 draft season (my 2nd year of playing FFB), a lot of the 'experts' started declaring that if you were picking towards the end of the first round, you HAD to take an elite WR. Their reasoning? You'll get more points from the elite WR than you would from the 'second tier' RB that's also available.
As such, I took Randy Moss. And a few weeks later, he was gone for the season.
At that point, I really began noticing all the things that can cause an elite WR to fail. Considering the Death Star was brought down TWICE by a single point of failure, I have zero desire to waste a first round pick on a player with more than one:
Don't wait as long as I did. Your FFB teams are just that - YOURS. Make your own decisions and, win or lose, you'll be a lot happier. I know I am.
One of them is why I'll never take a WR in the first round and probably not the second round ever again. Heading into the 2004 draft season (my 2nd year of playing FFB), a lot of the 'experts' started declaring that if you were picking towards the end of the first round, you HAD to take an elite WR. Their reasoning? You'll get more points from the elite WR than you would from the 'second tier' RB that's also available.
As such, I took Randy Moss. And a few weeks later, he was gone for the season.
At that point, I really began noticing all the things that can cause an elite WR to fail. Considering the Death Star was brought down TWICE by a single point of failure, I have zero desire to waste a first round pick on a player with more than one:
- Poor weather. I remember last year I just needed maybe 4 more points from Malcolm Floyd in Week 1, but wind and rain prevented him from just catching that one more pass that would've given me a win. Luckily this is mitigated by things like gloves and domes.
- Shutdown corners. This isn't as big a deal as it used to be since the rules changed, but there are still a few shutdown corners out there.
- The flow of the game. Generally speaking, they don't get the ball when their team is up big and, conversely, if their team is down, they'll probably be double-covered. Again, this isn't as big a deal as it used to be as running to kill the clock is becoming a lost art, but it's something I've noticed.
- Injuries. What? All football players get hurt? Okay, how's this: they get hurt and have lousy backups. By the time the #1 WR for a team gets hurt, the team's #2 and maybe even the #3 are already gone.
- Just about everything else with the play has to go right. The O-line has to block long enough. The QB has to throw a good pass. The WR, himself, has to get open. This opens you up to a real-life case of the butterfly effect.
Throw in an injury on the O-line or, heaven forbid, the QB and you've got a recipe for severely reduced production, at least for that game. By contrast, even a '2nd tier' RB can overcome an in-game change along the O-line and, as long as the backup QB can keep opposing defenses honest, won't be affected too much by a change there.
Don't wait as long as I did. Your FFB teams are just that - YOURS. Make your own decisions and, win or lose, you'll be a lot happier. I know I am.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Tweaking pass-catcher rankings
Astute observers may have noticed I've been working on the WR and TE rankings a bit this week.
I probably obsess the most over TE rankings. In my main league, only TEs get a PPR and you can use one in your flex spot as well; many $ winners have gone with 2 TE lineups (I stick with 2 RBs b/c I rarely get one good TE let alone 2). In my 2nd most important league, we added a WR/TE flex last year and I really try to start 2 there.
My main concern with most TEs is injuries. Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates all missed a lot of time last year. Former greats like Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are getting older. When in doubt, then, go with youth, so Finley gets bumped to the top spot. Clark comes in 2nd mainly b/c if you handcuff Jacob Tamme to him, you won't miss a beat.
My WR rankings are starting to crystalize, at least as far down as Jordy Nelson. I expect no dropoff with Roddy White this year (fyi I had him my #3 WR heading into the '10 season and drafted him in the 4th round), while, on the other hand, I think Todd Haley re-assuming the O-coord role in KC will negatively impact the entire O including Dwayne Bowe. I like Miles Austin to rebound with Tony Romo coming back and I think Greg Jennings will be okay but not great as long as Jermichael is healthy. Once the lockout ends and players begin to move around, I should have a better feel for how the remaining WRs will do.
Stay tuned!
I probably obsess the most over TE rankings. In my main league, only TEs get a PPR and you can use one in your flex spot as well; many $ winners have gone with 2 TE lineups (I stick with 2 RBs b/c I rarely get one good TE let alone 2). In my 2nd most important league, we added a WR/TE flex last year and I really try to start 2 there.
My main concern with most TEs is injuries. Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates all missed a lot of time last year. Former greats like Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are getting older. When in doubt, then, go with youth, so Finley gets bumped to the top spot. Clark comes in 2nd mainly b/c if you handcuff Jacob Tamme to him, you won't miss a beat.
My WR rankings are starting to crystalize, at least as far down as Jordy Nelson. I expect no dropoff with Roddy White this year (fyi I had him my #3 WR heading into the '10 season and drafted him in the 4th round), while, on the other hand, I think Todd Haley re-assuming the O-coord role in KC will negatively impact the entire O including Dwayne Bowe. I like Miles Austin to rebound with Tony Romo coming back and I think Greg Jennings will be okay but not great as long as Jermichael is healthy. Once the lockout ends and players begin to move around, I should have a better feel for how the remaining WRs will do.
Stay tuned!
Monday, July 18, 2011
Trip Report: Golden Nugget and the Borgata
I’d like to say I planned it this way from the very start – that I never set foot in Trump Marina because I knew someday they’d sell the place to Golden Nugget, which would do a promotion where new sign-ups could earn as much as $1000 in free slot play.
I’d like to say it, but I can’t. Simply put, I had zero desire to set a single small toe inside the Trump Marina. First, it was in the Marina and if I’m going to the Marina, I’m going to the Borgata. Second of all, the property did (and still does) look like a brown parking garage (one that now says ‘Rump Arina’ with an inverted golden triangle/waterfall on the main tower). And finally, as far as I can remember, they never had any promotions (either when they had their own card or when they introduced ‘Trump One’) for which I’d get off the jitney.
So when the slot club attendant called me over to his terminal so I could sign up for a card and asked me if I’d ever been there before “even when we were Trump”, I could truthfully say, “No”. I then proceeded to push a button that spun 3 reels on a slot machine behind him and couldn’t believe my eyes when “$100” appeared on all 3 on the center line!
At that point my gambling strategy changed considerably. Had I only won $5, I would’ve found a penny slot where I didn’t have to play too many lines at once and seen if I could quickly reach a bonus round. With $100, though, I figured Jacks or Better (even 8/5) was in order, mainly for ‘bankroll preservation’.
It took me longer than expected to find an 8/5 machine, which was odd b/c there isn’t much to the casino floor. GN hasn’t owned the property that long and there’s a definite ‘work in progress’ feel to the place, although to be fair I can only comment on what I saw between the parking garage and the casino floor – a couple of ‘temporary bars’ and some shops near the garage. The casino floor is ‘shotgun style’, meaning just a straight line of gambling opportunities (pit in the middle, machines surrounding the pit). I have to wonder if they’ve removed machines to save money just like some CZR properties have done.
I decided to put all my free play on one machine; I didn’t feel like having to fiddle with the keypad every so often. I played for a little bit and hit nothing of note, except for getting dealt four to a royal in spades and not getting the queen on the draw. Eventually I cashed ‘my’ money out and had about $40 of my own and about another $40 to go. So I played for what I thought was the same length of time, cashed out and still had free play to go. Lather, rinse, repeat a few more times and I finally used up all my free play. I put all the TITOs back in, saw I had $66.25, played one hand so a loss would bring me down to a nice, round number and it did, so I cashed out with $65. I should mention that in all this time (about 30 minutes), I never saw a cocktail waitress.
After paying my $5 for parking (on a Tuesday night? Boo!) and getting a transfer, I headed over to where I really wanted to go: the Borgata. I made my way through the crowds to the B Bar and found the one free machine on the quarter side. I soon realized why it was free: while all the machines got a good cleaning earlier in the day, someone must’ve already spilled a drink all over mine b/c the buttons, the touch screen AND the slot club keypad had very poor responsiveness. In retrospect, I should’ve just played enough hands to turn my $10 in free slot play into cash and then gone out onto the floor, but I wanted a soda and ended up burning through all of it plus my winnings (I got the machine to just above $20) before leaving. I put a $20 of my own in a machine outside the bar and played for a decent amount of time, hitting nothing of note. Somewhere in all this I ended up with 4 to a royal, again in spades. Finally, I saw it was 11:30 and since I had a 30 minute drive back to OC ahead of me, I cashed out when I got down to $10, leaving me with a total profit of $55. I think I said it last year, but it bears repeating: if you’re travelling between AC and OC after, oh, say, 10, take the Expressway and the Parkway. Any time before that and the local roads are just fine. Either way it’ll take about 30 minutes.
Just remember to bring coins for the tollbooths, which are unmanned at night. I through ten dimes in the basket and still didn’t get a green light so I blew my horn and continued on. If I get a ticket in the mail, well, at least I made some money!
I’d like to say it, but I can’t. Simply put, I had zero desire to set a single small toe inside the Trump Marina. First, it was in the Marina and if I’m going to the Marina, I’m going to the Borgata. Second of all, the property did (and still does) look like a brown parking garage (one that now says ‘Rump Arina’ with an inverted golden triangle/waterfall on the main tower). And finally, as far as I can remember, they never had any promotions (either when they had their own card or when they introduced ‘Trump One’) for which I’d get off the jitney.
So when the slot club attendant called me over to his terminal so I could sign up for a card and asked me if I’d ever been there before “even when we were Trump”, I could truthfully say, “No”. I then proceeded to push a button that spun 3 reels on a slot machine behind him and couldn’t believe my eyes when “$100” appeared on all 3 on the center line!
At that point my gambling strategy changed considerably. Had I only won $5, I would’ve found a penny slot where I didn’t have to play too many lines at once and seen if I could quickly reach a bonus round. With $100, though, I figured Jacks or Better (even 8/5) was in order, mainly for ‘bankroll preservation’.
It took me longer than expected to find an 8/5 machine, which was odd b/c there isn’t much to the casino floor. GN hasn’t owned the property that long and there’s a definite ‘work in progress’ feel to the place, although to be fair I can only comment on what I saw between the parking garage and the casino floor – a couple of ‘temporary bars’ and some shops near the garage. The casino floor is ‘shotgun style’, meaning just a straight line of gambling opportunities (pit in the middle, machines surrounding the pit). I have to wonder if they’ve removed machines to save money just like some CZR properties have done.
I decided to put all my free play on one machine; I didn’t feel like having to fiddle with the keypad every so often. I played for a little bit and hit nothing of note, except for getting dealt four to a royal in spades and not getting the queen on the draw. Eventually I cashed ‘my’ money out and had about $40 of my own and about another $40 to go. So I played for what I thought was the same length of time, cashed out and still had free play to go. Lather, rinse, repeat a few more times and I finally used up all my free play. I put all the TITOs back in, saw I had $66.25, played one hand so a loss would bring me down to a nice, round number and it did, so I cashed out with $65. I should mention that in all this time (about 30 minutes), I never saw a cocktail waitress.
After paying my $5 for parking (on a Tuesday night? Boo!) and getting a transfer, I headed over to where I really wanted to go: the Borgata. I made my way through the crowds to the B Bar and found the one free machine on the quarter side. I soon realized why it was free: while all the machines got a good cleaning earlier in the day, someone must’ve already spilled a drink all over mine b/c the buttons, the touch screen AND the slot club keypad had very poor responsiveness. In retrospect, I should’ve just played enough hands to turn my $10 in free slot play into cash and then gone out onto the floor, but I wanted a soda and ended up burning through all of it plus my winnings (I got the machine to just above $20) before leaving. I put a $20 of my own in a machine outside the bar and played for a decent amount of time, hitting nothing of note. Somewhere in all this I ended up with 4 to a royal, again in spades. Finally, I saw it was 11:30 and since I had a 30 minute drive back to OC ahead of me, I cashed out when I got down to $10, leaving me with a total profit of $55. I think I said it last year, but it bears repeating: if you’re travelling between AC and OC after, oh, say, 10, take the Expressway and the Parkway. Any time before that and the local roads are just fine. Either way it’ll take about 30 minutes.
Just remember to bring coins for the tollbooths, which are unmanned at night. I through ten dimes in the basket and still didn’t get a green light so I blew my horn and continued on. If I get a ticket in the mail, well, at least I made some money!
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
In the beginning...
was 'Common Cent$ Fantasy Football' and it wasn't bad (if I do say so myself). I started that blog in 2007 to provide a counterpoint to the alleged 'fantasy football experts' who were more interested in keeping their jobs than in giving reliable advice. I even managed to keep the blog active up to around the traditional 'trading deadline' in November, but after that, I ran out of steam. I mean, how many different ways can you say "this guy is stupid, do the opposite?".
Combine that with what I perceived as 'lackluster' readership and I didn't see the point in resuming the blog leading into the 2008 season. And besides, at that point, I had a one year old girl and an increasingly pregnant wife (daughter #2 was born the day the Eagles lost their 99th NFC title game; a true 'win-win' for this Giants fan!). I had time to PLAY fantasy football, but no time to write about it.
By 2009, however, I found myself with an opportunity to just worry about content without the 'red tape' of actual 'blog maintenance'. I had recently partnered with www.eastcoastgambler.net (now www.ac2lv.com) to provide my thoughts on Pennsylvania's burgeoning casino industry and thought he could also use some FFB content. I provided pre-season position rankings and in-season "pick 'em" picks that year as well as in 2010.
But, to paraphrase Bill Simmons paraphrasing Jimmy Chitwood, it's time to start writing a blog again. I'll still be providing content for his site, but I'd like to increase my output just a wee bit and try some new things (like live blogging and open threads) that I wouldn't be able to do over there.
In the meantime, take a spin around the archives (located WAAAAAY the heck down at the bottom) to see how this all started. Check out the Stats page which, I believe, clearly explains my bona fides in writing a blog like this. Read the Principles I try to follow to ensure success. And, maybe most importantly, keep an eye on the position rankings over on the right, as I'll be changing them with increasing frequency as the 2011 season gets closer (especially the WRs; I'm fully aware that list needs a LOT of work).
Until next time!
Combine that with what I perceived as 'lackluster' readership and I didn't see the point in resuming the blog leading into the 2008 season. And besides, at that point, I had a one year old girl and an increasingly pregnant wife (daughter #2 was born the day the Eagles lost their 99th NFC title game; a true 'win-win' for this Giants fan!). I had time to PLAY fantasy football, but no time to write about it.
By 2009, however, I found myself with an opportunity to just worry about content without the 'red tape' of actual 'blog maintenance'. I had recently partnered with www.eastcoastgambler.net (now www.ac2lv.com) to provide my thoughts on Pennsylvania's burgeoning casino industry and thought he could also use some FFB content. I provided pre-season position rankings and in-season "pick 'em" picks that year as well as in 2010.
But, to paraphrase Bill Simmons paraphrasing Jimmy Chitwood, it's time to start writing a blog again. I'll still be providing content for his site, but I'd like to increase my output just a wee bit and try some new things (like live blogging and open threads) that I wouldn't be able to do over there.
In the meantime, take a spin around the archives (located WAAAAAY the heck down at the bottom) to see how this all started. Check out the Stats page which, I believe, clearly explains my bona fides in writing a blog like this. Read the Principles I try to follow to ensure success. And, maybe most importantly, keep an eye on the position rankings over on the right, as I'll be changing them with increasing frequency as the 2011 season gets closer (especially the WRs; I'm fully aware that list needs a LOT of work).
Until next time!
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