Friday, July 27, 2007

Deconstructing an Expert: Yahoo's Brad Evans

Michael Harmon's been quiet lately over at FoxSports, but Brad Evans has graciously stepped up as my new victim. His article here has two main inconsistencies.

  • His statement "the disparity between (Peyton) Manning, the second-ranked fantasy QB in FPPG, and brother Eli Manning, the 15th best producer, was a meager 28.2 percent" makes no sense because of his use of the word 'meager'. Look, I'm a Giants fan; I know what Eli's all about. 28.2 percent is a BIG difference regardless of who the other QB is, but with Eli, you pretty much know he's useless after about week 8. So really, he's about 50% of what Peyton is, not 28%.

  • Brad goes on to state that you shouldn't take Peyton in the first round (and take a RB instead) because the drop-off from the best RB to #15 is 52.4 percent. Okay, well, that's all well and good, but Brad totally forgot his fact from earlier in the article that Peyton is going between 6th and 7th in most drafts. HE'S NOT GOING #1 AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE COMPARED WITH TOMLINSON. Rather, he should be compared with the RBs he has ranked 6 and 7, which are Frank Gore and Willie Parker. Factor in Gore's injury problems and the change in O-coordinators in SF along with Parker's inability to run on the road last year AND the new spread O in PIT this year and, yeah, I think I'd take Manning (or Brady, or Palmer) there.

Of course, this all depends on your draft. If you start 2 QBs in an 8 team league where passing TDs are 6 points, you HAVE to get a stud QB with one of your first 3 picks (I'm assuming someone like Bulger will slip to early in the third round). In larger leagues where passing TDs are 3 or 4 points, yeah, you can wait a bit. If you've got the 6th or 7th pick in a large league (10-12 teams) where passing TDs are still 6 points, well, then you'll have some quick decisions to make based on where your first pick is and what you think will be left when round 2 snakes back to you.

Oh, the final nail in Brad's coffin: he's still got Vick ranked #11. 'Nuff said.

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