I could easily beat Bill Simmons (just not this year)

ESPN's Page 2's Sports Guy posted his top 50 fantasy players today, dropping the fact that he's got the #1 pick in his West Coast league, meaning he's taking LT2.

Any other year, though, I could take him, based on the rest of his rankings.

Shaun Alexander #3

Comeback year. You can feel it in the air.

Yes, that's right, waste the #3 pick on a RB the wrong side of 30 who needs to 'come back' in order to live up to such a high pick. Plus, this violates one of the rules he set forth years ago. Well, it's not a rule, exactly, but it goes like this: "You never want to take a guy in his 'he lost it' year." This COULD be that year for Shaun.

Joseph Addai #4

One of the fundamental mistakes of fantasy football is that people would value Addai over Alexander because it's more fun to take Addai. After all, he's the up-and-comer, the potential breakout guy, the guy with the higher ceiling. Well, why not go with the guy who's healthy and who has done it before? With your first-round pick, you should approach it like you'd bet your life on the pick. Would you bet your life on Addai doing better than Alexander this season? I sure wouldn't.

And that's why, in a nutshell, Bill Simmons isn't that good at FFB.

Willis McGahee #10

Baltimore's upgrade from Jamal Lewis to McGahee was like going from coach to first class on one of those two-floor jumbo jets like the one they used on "Snakes on a Plane." By Week 6, I see him sitting at 600-plus yards and eight TDs

I'll admit McGahee has more 'upside' than Lewis. But you're putting that two-floor jumbo jet in a rat-infested, ready-to-be-condemned hangar known as the Ravens O. I'll say that 600 yards by Week 6 is possible, if not probable, but NOT 8 TDs.

Cedric Benson #11, Marvin Harrison #12
There's no way Cedric should go this high, ahead of Harrison, to boot.

Marshawn Lynch #14, Travis Henry #15, MOJO Drew #16 (FIVE whole spots behind Reggie Bush) and Carson Palmer #17
Another one of his old precepts bite the dust, apparently: the one that most drafters are afraid of rookies, meaning you can scoop them up much later. Has he even LOOKED at the box scores of Buffalo's pre-season games???

Laurence Maroney #19
HERE'S the guy who thinks Kool-Aid will be in a timeshare with Sammy Morris; I knew there'd be someone.

Edgerrin James #20
Another ranking based on comeback potential. Pfft...

You know what? I can't even make it another 30 spots. I'm jumping right to his sleepers.

Sleeper 2: Vince Young
Ummm.... Bill... you already put him in your Top 50. He can't be both. Sigh...

Sleeper 3 (tie): Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

I'd rather grab these guys in the middle rounds over wasting a fourth-round pick on Bulger or Hasselbeck and hoping they stay healthy.

If he's wasting a fourth round pick on Hasselbeck, he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning anyway. Hasselbeck CAN be had in the 'middle rounds'. I'd rather grab HIM than one guy who's never started before and forced to work behind a bad O-line (Schaub) and a guy no longer in a Norv Turner O (Smith).

Sleeper 12: Selvin Young
Proof that Simmons turned in this column late because he was able to take advantage of Shanny screwing over all those who drafted Mike Bell or Cecil Sapp.